Jackson Chourio Extension Report Realigns the Brewers Outfield Picture

[Matthew Trueblood]

In Tuesday afternoon's report that the Brewers are discussing a long-term contract extension with Jackson Chourio, the real thunderbolt was the news that signing it would assure Chourio's place in the Opening Day lineup. That would shake up several things.

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Optimistic though we have all been about Jackson Chourio for over a year, the notion that he would be with the Brewers all season in 2024 previously felt a bit far-fetched. As well as he's adjusted at each level with which he's been challenged, and as prodigious as his talent is, the man will not turn 20 until March 11. He's a true five-tool guy, and the most important and multifarious of those--the hit tool--came along gorgeously in 2023. Still, there are skills (distinct from tools) that any player this young can stand to polish in the minor leagues. Until Tuesday, it felt safe to assume that the Brewers would have Chourio do some of that polishing to open 2024.

If, instead, he's on the Opening Day roster, several things change at once. Chourio can't be on the roster but out of the lineup, so someone in the outfield mix gets bumped to the bench (or back to Triple-A Nashville) by his arrival--perhaps two or three months ahead of schedule. The most direct and seemingly unavoidable result of this contract extension would be that the Brewers would then trade a young outfielder this winter, because otherwise, they'd end up with a logjam--a real and somewhat unwelcome one.

One partial solution to the pressure would be moving Christian Yelich to first base or designated hitter in a permanent way, but for the moment, let's set that option aside. It comes with several countervailing complications, and it feels premature. Thus, we can pencil Yelich into left field for the sake of this conversation. That leaves Chourio to fit in alongside some mixture of Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell, Tyrone Taylor, Blake Perkins, and Chris Roller. The big question is how he would do so.

In that group, the best defensive center fielder is probably Mitchell. He blends top-end speed with a good arm and good instincts in a way the others can't quite match. If Chourio is going to be the team's cornerstone for the next decade, though, he's the one they should place in center. It could make sense to move him to right field in a couple of years, just as fellow Venezuelan phenom Ronald Acuña, Jr. made that move at a very young age, but he should start in center because it encourages and rewards the athleticism that makes both players so special. While Julio Rodríguez might move to right field as soon as his mid-20s, he set up shop in center field as a rookie and stayed there upon signing his own megadeal.

With Yelich and Chourio lined up to play left and center, then, we're shopping for the best deployment of the others in right field, as fourth and fifth outfielders, and as trade bait. That gets complicated, because trade value is so unknowable and none of these players is an ideal fit for an everyday corner outfield role. Right now, it feels like Frelick has the highest trade value, and like he's only marginally ahead of the others in projected on-field value for the short term--if ahead of them at all. That inclines me toward trading him, and letting Wiemer and Mitchell take up residence as a platoon in right field.

Taylor, too, seems like a trade candidate. He hasn't been durable or consistent enough to be a regular, and while he's still a solid fourth outfielder, his utility to this particular team dwindles once you write in Chourio. There are too many other, more versatile, optionable players in the mix. Even after dealing him and Frelick, the team would have Wiemer and Mitchell as co-starters with the ability to spell Yelich and/or Chourio as needed; Perkins as a defensive specialist in a pure bench role, with whom you'd be comfortable if injuries forced him to start a fistful of times; and Roller, who just got added to the 40-man roster and can be comfortably kept in Nashville unless and until a need arises.

The offensive upside of both Wiemer and Mitchell is an open question, but platooning would benefit each, and they have the raw tools to have significant value out there. Once you mentally convert Chourio from prospect to lineup fixture, the anxiety that arises from our shared uncertainty about those two and about Frelick begins to dissipate. The Brewers are in an enviable spot with their outfield, now more than ever. A Chourio extension would be the first in what would figure to be a series of quick steps toward clarifying and capturing the value of their depth.

Who would you trade if Chourio does sign this exciting potential deal? Would you have the rookie start in right field or center? Let's kick around the many possibilities.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree with most everything said here but I wonder if Frelick has more value than Wiemer. Dunno.

[Bratwithspecialsauce]

Frelick is your CF. Yelich is DH and 1B.  Chourio to RF, Mitchell in left. You can use Yeli in LF on occasion and give Black reps at 1B slowly that way. 

[Profbratsch]

If the Brew Crew keeps Wiemer what would the chances be (slim and none, perhaps) to consider him at first base? He does have great reflexes and leaping ability. On top of that he has more of the prototypical build than Yelich for the position. I realize he has no previous experience there!

I’m ready for the incoming messages that are sure to follow… ;-)

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

48 minutes ago, Profbratsch said:

If the Brew Crew keeps Wiemer what would the chances be (slim and none, perhaps) to consider him at first base? He does have great reflexes and leaping ability. On top of that he has more of the prototypical build than Yelich for the position. I realize he has no previous experience there!

I’m ready for the incoming messages that are sure to follow… ;-)

I'm sure he could hack it over at first but boy that seems like a waste of his athleticism. I'd rather see him traded, I think.

[wibadgers23]

31 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm sure he could hack it over at first but boy that seems like a waste of his athleticism. I'd rather see him traded, I think.

Yeah would hate to waste his arm at 1B and as you said his athleticism.

[Michael Trzinski]

I'd rather keep Mitchell and Frelick and trade Wiemer. He has so much potential, but first he has to modify that crazy batting style...

 

[Bashopolis]

Of note is that the Brewers almost always had five if not six outfielders on the active roster in 2023.  One of them, Winker, I don't believe ever actually played in the outfield.  

If the Brewers consider that one of their rostered outfielders will be a DH almost every day than it works to roster at least five:  Chourio, Yelich, Mitchell, Frelich and Taylor.  Weimer would be insurance at AAA in this scenario.  There is enough injury history and uncertainty of performance amongst this group to want a good insurance option.  

This doesn't preclude a trade, but it also provides a serviceable option if the right trade doesn't present itself.  

 

I also like the idea of exploring Weimer at first base.  The idea that the Brewers would be wasting his athleticism is secondary to the Brewers ongoing propensity to not fully recognize the offensive value of having a good first base man.  It is better to have "extra" athleticism that isn't used than have first basemen that are giant holes in the line up.  

 

[Profbratsch]

There’s another reason I am proposing Wiemer at first, but from an entirely different perspective. Ever since the days of Doug Melvin I have never felt there has been a consistent long-term plan for the team. Go veteran, or explore the possibilities within the farm system? Perhaps this is the time-even at the risk of not making the playoffs in 2024-to go all in with the latter strategy, especially if Corbin, Willy, and/or Devin are traded. There should be a fairly substantial haul of prospects from those transactions.

 

[CheezWizHed]

22 hours ago, Profbratsch said:

There’s another reason I am proposing Wiemer at first, but from an entirely different perspective. Ever since the days of Doug Melvin I have never felt there has been a consistent long-term plan for the team. Go veteran, or explore the possibilities within the farm system? Perhaps this is the time-even at the risk of not making the playoffs in 2024-to go all in with the latter strategy, especially if Corbin, Willy, and/or Devin are traded. There should be a fairly substantial haul of prospects from those transactions.

 

100% of Wiemer's value last year was his defense in the OF.  His bat has a serious "hole" against MLB pitchers, so putting him at an offensive first position seems backwards.  Right now (bat unfixed), he is a good 4th/5th OFer because of his D.  If he can hit enough to provide value at 1B, he will have a TON of value in the OF. 

Per the OP, I see Frelick-Mitchell-Chourio as the normal OF.  Yelich can DH and play LF when one of the 3 sits. There are plenty of ABs to go around there.  TT can be the 5th OFer (or perhaps traded).  Wiemer to AAA to work on his swing. If one is traded or hurt, Wiemer/Perkins get called up. 

Good depth, good upside, good flexibility.