After Jackson Chourio Contract, Brewers Need the Same Mindset for Other Winter Moves

[Tim Muma]

Signing a 19-year-old who has only played six games above Double A to an eight-year, $82-million contract is a bold move. This should start a new, aggressive strategy for the Milwaukee Brewers front office, wherein they trust their evaluations and proactively secure high-end talent when they identify it. They should take more risks and avoid the play-it-safe model.

Image courtesy of © Kyle Schwab-USA TODAY Sports

While locking down Jackson Chourio for 10 years (eight guaranteed, plus two club options) is about more than short-term success, it's a high-risk, high-reward strategy the Brewers often avoid. It's assertive and unapologetic, and it's precisely how they need to operate for the rest of the offseason--and beyond. After inking a record deal for a player without a day of MLB experience, the safe course would be to take a step back and hang out in the middle, as they've done for many seasons. It has allowed them to be consistently good, but never great. There are plenty of options for the Brewers to strike effectively this offseason, stay on an assertive path and set themselves up for continued success.

Aggressiveness can lead the way with either decision the Brewers make with Corbin Burnes. Both roads create opportunities to creatively fortify the roster through trades and free agency. That isn't to suggest that Mark Attanasio break the bank (that will not happen), but this team can take a few more chances on expensive talent and daring trades. Playing the long game with Chourio is a prime example of valuing and trusting your stats, scouts, and ability to mold players in your system. This must be done elsewhere with Brewers' decisions: identify the talent you believe in, do what it takes to secure them, and make your call, without fear of failure.

Applying this strategy to trading Burnes means a different perspective on who to target. Focus on quality, not quantity, generally speaking. The key acquisition: One MLB-ready bat with an elite ceiling.

Considering the reported interest from other clubs, Milwaukee should be able to play teams against each other to garner the best return possible. They need to shoot for the moon, and a little more. It might mean the Brewers need to throw in another smaller piece, but again, fortune favors the bold. Dealing Burnes is not a death sentence for the 2024 season. Milwaukee will still have plenty of its 2023 NL Central Championship squad returning, on top of the additions they can make.

Thus, this isn't the time to acquire three "high-floor" prospects who are unlikely to strike gold. Go for the star that might not work out, instead of hedging your bets. The Brewers' offense has been the issue, and the organization has struggled to consistently develop and produce their own hitters. Meanwhile, their pitching lab has created monsters. Thus, target a player whom most people already tab as a near-lock at the plate.

An example last offseason was my hope that the Brewers would aggressively go after Texas Rangers' third baseman Josh Jung in exchange for Burnes. Jung is the perfect example of an offensive weapon Milwaukee needs and would have for a long time. At the beginning of last offseason, Texas was keyed in on high-end starting pitchers. But nothing happened between the two, as the Brewers stuck it out with Burnes, while Jung hit 23 home runs with a 109 OPS+ in his first full season.

My preferred focus would be on the Baltimore Orioles' Coby Mayo. The 21-year-old third baseman might eventually move to first base or left field, but his bat plays anywhere, and he's improved at the hot corner. Regardless, Mayo's bat speed and elite power are the headliners. Between Double A and Triple A last season, Mayo posted a .290/.410/.563 slash line, with 29 homers, 45 doubles and 93 walks across 140 games. He ranked fourth in Baltimore's loaded farm system, according to MLB.com, perhaps just "low enough" for the Orioles to see a Burnes rental as worth the price.

From the Brewers' perspective, some might wonder, is a one-for-one swap to acquire an unproven player the right move? It's certainly a risk, but as noted, the Brewers must keep the Chourio trend going: identify, target and acquire, sign long-term. Assuming they like Mayo as much as many experts do, this is the idea. But let's continue the think tank and seek to add another piece for now and in the future.

In this hypothetical, the Brewers should be open to trading away another small piece to enhance the return even more, be it another infielder like Jordan Westburg with solid hit and power potential, who can also play shortstop (if Willy Adames is gone before or after 2024) or a young pitcher Milwaukee evaluators see as a "fit" for its lab. The most challenging part of developing legitimate trade proposals is that every organization has its own assessments and philosophies, but if you don't ask, the answer is always "no." So, in case Baltimore isn't interested, there are a few other young, top-level position players to target:

• Justin Foscue, Texas Rangers: Blocked at MLB level; owns .879 OPS across his last three minor-league seasons.
• Joey Loperfido, Houston Astros: Hit 25 home runs with a .278/.370/.510 line with three minor-league teams in 2023.
• Michael Busch, Los Angeles Dodgers: Oldest of the group (26); owned a 1.049 OPS in Triple A last season and has nothing left to prove there.

On the flip side, the Brewers should also determine which of their young outfielders they believe in, and which one (or more) are perfect trade pieces. The front office needs to put aside any fears of trading away a potential stud if their scouts and stats say he'd be worse than the other two or three in the system or what they receive in the deal. Do they have to make a trade? Not necessarily. But with the number of guys available for outfield duty, it is the perfect time. Heading into the Winter Meetings, the outfielders are:

• Christian Yelich
• Tyrone Taylor
• Garrett Mitchell
• Sal Frelick
• Joey Wiemer
• Blake Perkins
• Chris Roller
• Chourio (if you believe he can make the Opening Day roster)

Depth is fantastic, but the return from a trade might be more valuable. Perhaps a club loves Mitchell and is willing to part with a more proven player to acquire him. The Brewers need to trust their decision-makers, even if they end up trading away an All-Star while being "stuck" with the rest of the group being average. Again, fortune favors the bold. You might get the arm or bat that puts you over the top in the playoffs, while Mitchell plays excellent defense but can't hit or stay healthy.

All these moves are with the clear idea that Milwaukee will compete for the NL Central crown in 2024 and be in an even better position in the future. With the savings from Burnes's expected arbitration award and the many other arbitration casualties, the Brewers would then have spending money for a bevy of options in free agency, focusing on mid-rotation starters without enormous commitment in years or dollars. And with the Brewers' track record of getting the most out of hurlers, it adds to the logic of getting a young, possibly elite hitter in a trade while using free agency to replace Burnes's production. Depending on exactly which direction the Brewers go with their lineup, a couple of free-agent bats could complement the club, likely on shorter-term contracts that could create tremendous value (e.g., Jorge Soler, Rhys Hoskins).

Ultimately, it's about being intrepid, like the Brewers were in signing Chourio to his record contract. There's risk involved: people will second-guess the decision, and it could all blow up in their faces. But, it's what they believe is the best course of action, and anything but a typical Brewers "safe play." Now, they must double down this offseason and use the Chourio boldness as the prevailing mindset going forward.

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[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

Great article Tim Muma!

"Playing the long game with Chuorio is a prime example of valuing and trusting your stats, scouts, and ability to mold players in your system. This must be done elsewhere with Brewers' decisions: identify the talent you believe in, do what it takes to secure them, and make your call, without fear of failure.

Applying this strategy to trading Burnes means a different perspective on who to target. Focus on quality, not quantity, generally speaking. The key acquisition: One MLB-ready bat with an elite ceiling."

Harken to these words and this philosophy my fellow fanatics. March forward and get that major league ready quality bat. Coby Mayo would indeed be an  OUTSTANDING aquisition. Go ahead and make an offer they cannot refuse. Give up Burnes and one of their many outfielders.  One Oriole in the hand is better than 2 in the bush. Go Large! Don't look back but push forward. 

[RedStickBrew]

[alwz4gbp]

I would agree Rick.  Burnes is done with the Crew.  Get what you can and move on.  While I'm not a huge minor league guy, from waht I've seen, Mayo is exactly what we need.  There is no sense in trading Burnes, Adames, Williams etc for guys who will only be here for two years. or for a whole pile of lottery picks.  Go for quality.  You now have a huge window with Churio as the lead dog.  Go young and let them all grow together.  Frelick is the one that I want them to keep, trade the rest.  Trade Burnes, Adames and Williams for quality.  Quantity does us no good.  The Crew is sitting in a very unique position.  "Lowish" payroll, several youngsters to build around, a pretty decent farm and a GM who I think is going to outdo his old boss.  Lets go!!

[jay87shot]

Be aggressive look towards mlb ready players. I really would love to move on from Yeli, Adamas, and Burnes if we can get the right players. While that might really negatively affect the casual Brewer fan but done right could make a Braves/Rangers type lineup (lots of could be). That assumes our development team can actual develop some bats.

[BrewerFan]

I completely agree with the premise and have been wholeheartedly endorsing the John Hart philosophy for a while now. Feels like the Brewers made a mistake not offering Burnes an extension in the last 3+ years(at least). But, along with that, you'd have offered Woody one.

To me, this is a numbers game though. If you do this with enough young talent, if a player like Woodruff gets hurt, you can weather that as you have several others at below-market value. It's entirely possible neither pitcher was interested in a deal that left considerable money on the table in exchange for the security(I know people will rely on the Boras relationship with Burnes, but players ultimately make the decision). 

I think they've been pretty good. The Peralta/Ashby extensions would suggest they made offers early on to the two aces as they signed them to exceptional deals.

 

The key is to keep churning out elite talent. Hopefully, we're celebrating a Quero, Black, Frelick...Wiemer, Mitchell, Wilken, Misiorowski extension in the near future plus whoever is deserving. In the meantime, I'd love to see Uribe and Contreras. Both seem like pretty safe bets. Uribe would be a 7/35 type extension with 2 option years give or take. And using the Murphy extension at 6/73 a year further along, 7/75 makes sense, add a couple options @20 a year with a 5M buyout. 7/80, you have your catcher through age 31 and you can move on if Quero becomes a stud.