Why Did The Brewers Target Coleman Crow In The Adrian Houser & Tyrone Taylor Trade?

[Spencer Michaelis]

On Wednesday, the Brewers and Matt Arnold made their first trade with an old friend when David Stearns and the Mets agreed to send Coleman Crow to the Crew. In return, they received starting pitcher Adrian Houser and outfielder Tyrone Taylor. In this article, let's take a closer look at Crow.

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Coleman Crow was a 28th-round selection by the Angels in 2019, but he didn’t make his professional debut until 2021 due to COVID-19. He worked through the system over the next two years, starting in 2023 in Double A. He made four starts before going on the Injured List with an elbow issue that would eventually lead to Tommy John surgery. Despite the injury, he was dealt to the Mets in a trade for former Brewer Eduardo Escobar in late June. He underwent his procedure in August and will probably miss most (if not all) of the 2024 season. With knowledge of all of that, the Brewers still decided he was worth two respectable big-league players. What did they see in order to make this trade worthwhile from Milwaukee’s standpoint? 

They saw outlier spin and outlier movement to go along with solid command. Specifically, they saw major outlier qualities in his breaking balls. We would be remiss to ignore (as with any Southern League pitcher who threw in the first half of the season last year) that the spin rates and the movement on his pitches were inflated a bit due to the pre-tacked baseballs they were using. However, simply put, if you can spin the baseball, you can spin the baseball. Crow can do that.

Looking first at his four-seam fastball, Crow only sits in the 90-92 range on the pitch, though he can sometimes bump it to 93 or 94. That type of velocity certainly won’t be blowing hitters away. However, his -4 degree Vertical Approach Angle (VAA) could still make the fastball relatively effective. VAA is a term and a measurement that has only existed for a few years. It measures the steepness at which the ball travels as it enters the zone. The average four-seam fastball in MLB the last couple of years has been around -5 degrees. While the difference of only one degree may not seem all that noteworthy, it is a much bigger difference than it appears on the surface.

Batters have trained the majority of their lives against fastballs that come in around the average VAA. They are used to the ball following a somewhat predictable downward path based on gravity, speed, and spin. Connecting with any pitch requires a split-second decision. Batters often have to rely on the law of averages for how pitches move. That’s why outliers in either direction are valued so highly. Outliers play tricks on the eyes of hitters. A -4 degree fastball is much flatter than what most offensive players are used to, and it often causes them to swing under the ball. For example, Freddy Peralta is known for his “invisible fastball,” and a big reason for that is his VAA of -3.91 degrees on the pitch. 

Barring a jump in velocity, the fastball will probably never be more than an average offering, and he will most likely always be prone to some home run issues because of it. Still, the VAA is the reason it shouldn’t be a big enough issue to ruin his chances of starting.

The breaking balls are Crow's real appeal, namely his curveball. Not only does he command it well, but according to Baseball America, “his curveball has some of the highest horizontal sweep and spin rate of any curve in baseball. It has the most glove-side run of any curveball in the upper levels, including the majors.” There isn’t much more that needs to be said about the pitch. It’s minimally a plus offering, if not better, and the pitch will likely carry him throughout his career.

Crow also mixes in a slider with high spin numbers and a good amount of sweep. The slider has generated strong chase rates and created a lot of soft contact. It’s a pitch that some evaluators think he should throw more often to right-handed hitters, and a team like the Brewers is more likely to instruct him to do so than an organization like the Angels would have been. When he returns from his injury, it will be interesting to see which direction the Brewers take his pitch mix.

Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel had a Twitter thread showing all three pitches discussed above.

Beyond his primary, three-pitch mix, Crow also sprinkles in a sinker occasionally, as well as a changeup. Both are lagging behind the four-seam fastball and slider, and they are well behind the curveball. The development of either would benefit him greatly. Still, given his propensity for spinning breaking balls, he is most likely what is referred to as a “supinator” (meaning it’s easier for him to rotate his fingers on the outside of the ball) than a “pronator” (Devin Williams is a definite pronator, as he can rotate the ball the opposite direction better than almost anyone). That could prove a challenge when trying to develop the changeup specifically. The good news is that he could get by with just those three main pitches.

While Crow will probably miss the 2024 season, there is reason to be excited about his potential. He possesses an arsenal that, combined with his strong command, could eventually make him a mid-rotation caliber starter. Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor were not a cheap price for an arm of this caliber. He will need further refinement of his fastball and slider and, more importantly, a clean recovery from Tommy John, but the pieces are there for Crow. The Brewers hope to help him combine those pieces to form an even larger piece of the puzzle. That is, the post-Burnes and Woodruff starting rotation puzzle.

What are your thoughts on Crow? Do you feel better about the deal now that you have seen the upside he could bring? Let us know!

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[Michael Trzinski]

A couple things...does an 'outlier spin rate' directly translate to success, or do people just say, 'He must be good because his ball spins at 50,000rpm' or whatever?

And 2) will he be the same after the TJS?

I think the Brewers came out on the short end of the deal, trading a #4/#5 starter and #4 OF for a pitcher who may or may not be as successful as the metrics might indicate.

 

[Jake McKibbin]

What are the chances of Crow ending up a minor league FA on the back of his TJ surgery?if he had results like bradley blalock for instanxd would he be added to the 40 man?

It's very much a risk and reward strategy, but would hate to lose a solid to above average (slightly) outfielder and solid back end starter for nothing at all in a years time

[Spencer Michaelis]

11 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

What are the chances of Crow ending up a minor league FA on the back of his TJ surgery?if he had results like bradley blalock for instanxd would he be added to the 40 man?

It's very much a risk and reward strategy, but would hate to lose a solid to above average (slightly) outfielder and solid back end starter for nothing at all in a years time

I’d say next to zero for the chances of him becoming a MiLB FA. Unless his rehab goes horribly, I’d expect him to be on the 40 Man next offseason.

[Spencer Michaelis]

18 minutes ago, Michael Trzinski said:

A couple things...does an 'outlier spin rate' directly translate to success, or do people just say, 'He must be good because his ball spins at 50,000rpm' or whatever?

And 2) will he be the same after the TJS?

I think the Brewers came out on the short end of the deal, trading a #4/#5 starter and #4 OF for a pitcher who may or may not be as successful as the metrics might indicate.

 

Unfortunately I don’t think there Is one, single thing that will always translate to success, but outlier pitch metrics tend to give guys a better chance at success. The curveball also gets very poor results against it, from the hitters perspective, and moves more than any curve in baseball. The slider gets really poor contact and a lot of swing and miss as well. It’s not simply the way the pitch moves that’s interesting. Though I would personally argue that the quality of the pitches is more predictive of future success, as players progress through the upper levels, than their surface level results are. 
 

Edit: forgot to answer #2. I’m not sure anyone knows for sure, but Tommy John is a very routine procedure these days. It’s pretty much been perfected. Outside of the missed time it takes to rehab, there’s usually not much of a stepback for pitchers. Some even come back throwing harder. Shoulder injuries are the career killers these days.

[Joseph Zarr]

He also carries a 2-seamer in his arsenal. He is a two-type fast ball pitcher. And, quite interestingly, the 2-seamer also carries high-end traits despite its low average velo (in 2023). Obviously a small sample size, but I remember encountering (in a few places after he dominanced the Shuckers) a very very similar high-end iVB and arm side run set of characteristics with his two-seamer tho it appeared at face value (when I watched him) the four-seamer was the strikeout pitch. I wouldn't imagine he grabbed a lot of K's with the 2-seamer but I do imagine, given his characteristics, it would induce a lot of weak contact. 

** Perhaps you're referring to his 2-seamer when you are discussing a possible sinker? I didn't see a sinker in his 6 inning outing in Rocket City. I could be wrong. I know the 2-seamer often gets clumped but the characteristics I saw were vertical and horizontal run as opposed to below the barrel. I saw a runner not a sinker 😂 **

Very fun pitcher to have in the arsenal. This just in: the Brewers kind of know what they're looking for in the pitching thing.

[Spencer Michaelis]

2 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

He also carries a 2-seamer in his arsenal. He is a two-type fast ball pitcher. And, quite interestingly, the 2-seamer also carries high-end traits despite its low average velo (in 2023). Obviously a small sample size, but I remember encountering (in a few places after he dominanced the Shuckers) a very very similar high-end iVB and arm side run set of characteristics with his two-seamer tho it appeared at face value (when I watched him) the four-seamer was the strikeout pitch. I wouldn't imagine he grabbed a lot of K's with the 2-seamer but I do imagine, given his characteristics, it would induce a lot of weak contact. 

** Perhaps you're referring to his 2-seamer when you are discussing a possible sinker? I didn't see a sinker in his 6 inning outing in Rocket City. I could be wrong. **

Very fun pitcher to have in the arsenal. This just in: the Brewers kind of know what they're looking for in the pitching thing.

I am referring to that one as the sinker yes. In my opinion, two-seamers and sinkers are the same pitch. In fact, I believe MLB doesn't classify them as two-seamers anymore either. The fastball classifications they have are four-seam, cutter and sinker. It was always weird how they separated them to me, so I'm glad they've gone away from it haha.

[Joseph Zarr]

Just now, Smichaelis9 said:

I am referring to that one as the sinker yes. In my opinion, two-seamers and sinkers are the same pitch. In fact, I believe MLB doesn't classify them as two-seamers anymore either. The fastball classifications they have are four-seam, cutter and sinker. It was always weird how they separated them to me, so I'm glad they've gone away from it haha.

Cool. I personally still go off the strict movement and characteristics. I love the detailed nuance, personally, much like discussing a sweeper, slider, curve, and slurve. Perhaps it's just stupid nerdery 😂. There was a great Fangraphs article I'll pull up from my Bookmarks from like 5 years ago that discussed this very thing (2-Seamer/Sinker). I personally think it was atrophy that led to MLB changing the classifications and not wanting to turn away the common fan - I can't blame them.

Here's the article - I think you'll appreciate it 😁

[Spencer Michaelis]

4 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Cool. I personally still go off the strict movement and characteristics. I love the detailed nuance, personally, much like discussing a sweeper, slider, curve, and slurve. Perhaps it's just stupid nerdery 😂. There was a great Fangraphs article I'll pull up from my Bookmarks from like 5 years ago that discussed this very thing (2-Seamer/Sinker). I personally think it was atrophy that led to MLB changing the classifications and not wanting to turn away the common fan - I can't blame them.

Here's the article - I think you'll appreciate it 😁

Definitely an interesting article! My issue with it, is that there are very different shapes on every pitch. I like that they added a sweeper classification, because it is definitely a different pitch than anything else they have. But I also feel like you could start having a bunch of different names for four-seam fastballs if you wanted, given some ride, some run, some are plain flat. If we separate every pitch to the Nth degree, I feel like it'll just become too watered down eventually. It's definitely a hard balance to strike though lol, because I definitely get your point.

[Terry]

From my understanding, VAA will be affected by pre-tacked ball right? As it give four seam extra carries?
BA article(https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/new-enhanced-grip-baseball-raising-concerns-strikeouts-in-double-a-southern-league/) did wrote that "Angels righthander Coleman Crow is averaging seven more inches of carry compared to last year." Which is a concern for me personally, ultimately might decide his ceiling.

[Spencer Michaelis]

1 hour ago, Terry said:

From my understanding, VAA will be affected by pre-tacked ball right? As it give four seam extra carries?
BA article(https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/new-enhanced-grip-baseball-raising-concerns-strikeouts-in-double-a-southern-league/) did wrote that "Angels righthander Coleman Crow is averaging seven more inches of carry compared to last year." Which is a concern for me personally, ultimately might decide his ceiling.

It is possible it will change a bit for sure. The tough part about VAA is it doesn’t always correlate with the IVB (the inches of carry). It can be caused more by a low release point than simply by the carry of the ball. But it is definitely something we will have to watch.

[Austin Tatious]

Very good stuff, Spencer (and Joseph). Love the insights and info.  

I am confident that the data you provided is the reason the Brewers wanted this precise pitcher.  No, he’s not ranked highly, but the Brewers obviously liked his particular metrics.  

I think if we are lucky we get a Mike Fiers caliber pitcher.  He was very solid for a period.