The Brewers Rotation As It Stands Today, In Flux

[Jason Wang]

With Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser now on different paths, how do their replacements shake up the existing starter soup?

Assuming he isn’t traded at any point, trusty steed Corbin Burnes will remain the team’s ace, but the second spot in the rotation is where we see our first major change. Following surgery to repair his right shoulder and an estimated recovery timeline of nearly a full year, Brandon Woodruff was non-tendered, and replacing him is no easy task. Over the past seven years and 115 starts with the team, he averaged a 3.10 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, along with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings, to establish his reputation as one of baseball's most intimidating power pitchers. 

With Woodruff gone, Freddy Peralta has taken the second spot in the rotation. He profiles similarly to Woodruff, averaging 11.6 SO/9 over his six-year career with a particularly potent four-seam fastball. However, he has yet to achieve the same peak performance over an entire season other than his 2021 All-Star campaign. He has also been known to hit extended stretches of inconsistent performance, so depending on him to make up for what was lost in Woodruff’s departure is likely a fool’s errand.

Another major change in the rotation is the appearance of a new name, Joe Ross. A right-handed pitcher who most recently spent time in the Giants minor league system, he also spent six years at the major league level with the Nationals, averaging a 4.26 ERA over 76 starts and 443 ⅓ innings. He’s one of the unfortunate few to have received Tommy John surgery twice, once in 2017 and once in 2022. Since his first procedure six years ago, he has pitched more than 100 major-league innings in a season just once and hasn’t been able to crack the 100 ERA+ mark. 2023 was particularly interesting as he only pitched 14 innings across three levels of the minor leagues. 

He primarily depends on a sinker/slider combination with occasional four-seam fastballs and changeups sprinkled in. With a career SO/9 rate of just 8.2, he has depended more on soft contact, recording a fly-ball rate of 30.7% in his most recent major-league season two years ago. Because there have only been 17 innings of data since then, it’s hard to say what sort of pitcher the team will ultimately end up with. He may even come out of the bullpen in extended relief appearances, filling a void left by Adrian Houser, but he’s currently listed as a starter on the depth chart. 

He signed a one-year deal after an allegedly comprehensive physical exam to ensure the durability of his right elbow. The contract is for just $1.75 million with no options, so Milwaukee is treating this as a fun experiment more than anything else. At 30, he doesn’t have much flexibility or room for error, but there might be an undervalued arm buried underneath all those grafted tendons.

Another new face that hasn’t yet been slotted in is Robert Gasser, the #5 ranked prospect in the Brewers system. Originally estimated to make his big league debut in 2023, it seems a matter of time before he gets called upon to pitch in Milwaukee. Last season, he pitched to a 3.79 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 123 ⅓ innings with the Nashville Sounds. A crafty lefty, his fastball velocity sits in the low-90s, and his sweeper hovers in the low-80s. Wade Miley and Hoby Milner were the only long-term lefties on the team last year and were two of the best performers, which could be a great sign for Gasser. In a predominantly right-handed pitching staff, he could add some much-needed variety. He’s no Randy Johnson and still has much to improve, but he’ll be a useful arm at the back end of the rotation, likely taking up the final spot. 

A rotation of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Wade Miley, Joe Ross, Colin Rea, and Robert Gasser doesn’t seem like the stuff of legend. Still, it’s important to remember that it isn’t too different from what was used last year. With Woodruff and Houser missing significant time due to injury, their replacements of Julio Teheran and Eric Lauer didn’t have Cy Young seasons. However, it was still enough for the team to have the sixth-best ERA for starters at 3.94.

It's also important to factor in the organization's ability to develop pitching talent. The return haul for Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor was a man by the name of Coleman Crow. An intriguing prospect with a plus breaking ball package and a shared knack for torn ulnar collateral ligaments, he's likely seen as the next in a long line of excellent Wisconsin pitch lab products. Spencer Michaelis recently did a deeper dive on why the team was willing to give up so much to get him. This could mean better-than-expected results for some newer faces, especially Robert Gasser.

As with all things in baseball, we won’t know how things will shake out until they happen. Maybe the team signs or acquires a new starting pitcher through trade before Opening Day. Maybe the team sells off Burnes to bolster its lineup. Either way, Milwaukee has consistently surpassed expectations even after fielding seemingly underwhelming rosters year after year. When faced with budgetless big-market teams like the Dodgers and the Yankees, they persevere. Like New York Mets (sic) legend Yogi Berra once said, “It ain’t over till it’s over.”  

How would you feel about the team's starting pitcher selection if the season started today? Are there any names that would be realistic additions to this squad?

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[jay87shot]

I have been operating as Joe Ross is a reliever, he just hasn't pitched enough the past few years to feel confident. I would put him in a multi-inning role and if he looks good let him roll into the rotation as a 6th starter or injury replacement.  

1) Burnes 2) Peralta 3) Miley 4)Rea 5)Gasser at this point if we don't make any big trades I would probably add a few minor league options, maybe someone like Chris Flexen, Luke Weaver, or Noah Syndergaard. I don't really like any of those options but they are all young enough that a bounce back is possible.

In my perfect world we would trade Burnes, Adames, and a couple relievers and pickup 2 young mlb ready arms to slot into the rotation.

[Jason Wang]

5 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I have been operating as Joe Ross is a reliever, he just hasn't pitched enough the past few years to feel confident. I would put him in a multi-inning role and if he looks good let him roll into the rotation as a 6th starter or injury replacement.  

1) Burnes 2) Peralta 3) Miley 4)Rea 5)Gasser at this point if we don't make any big trades I would probably add a few minor league options, maybe someone like Chris Flexen, Luke Weaver, or Noah Syndergaard. I don't really like any of those options but they are all young enough that a bounce back is possible.

In my perfect world we would trade Burnes, Adames, and a couple relievers and pickup 2 young mlb ready arms to slot into the rotation.

Flexen is an interesting callout. He has struggled a lot over the past two years and even though he came up as a starter, I don't think he has the stamina to maintain it. Maybe the Brewers could fix him and get him back to his 2021 form? Who knows.