Video: Does K-Rod Merit Induction To Coooperstown?

[David Go]

Former Brewers' closer Francisco Rodriguez, better known as K-Rod, ranks fourth all-time in saves. The three ahead of him - Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith - are already in the Hall of Fame. Behind him is Billy Wagner, who could see his name called for the 2024 election. Does K-Rod deserve more Hall of Fame consideration than he's received?

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[wiguy94]

Until Wagner gets in K-Rod shouldn't be considered for the HoF.

[sveumrules]

Not sure I'd have any other reliever as Hall worthy besides Wagner at this point.

Obviously Mariano is a class of his own at 1233 IP | 46 ERA- | 60 FIP- | 53.6 rWAR | 38.6 fWAR | +55.76 WPA for his career.

After that I'd have Wagner grouped in a tier with Hoffman and Smith...

Lee Smith
1252 IP | 75 ERA- | 74 FIP- | 157 K%+ | 27.7 rWAR | 25.8 rWAR | +24.36 WPA

Trevor Hoffman
1089 IP | 71 ERA- | 73 FIP- | 150 K%+ | 28.6 rWAR | 25.9 fWAR | +32.78 WPA

Billy Wagner
903 IP | 54 ERA- | 63 FIP- | 190 K%+ | 30.1 rWAR | 24.0 fWAR | +28.40 WPA

On a per inning basis Wagner is closer to Mariano than these guys. That he has the highest rWAR and is ballpark on fWAR and WPA despite a 186 and a 255 IP deficit to Trevor and Lee is pretty remarkable really.

I'd have Francisco in the HoVG tier with guys like Nathan, Papelbon, Kenley, Kimbrel, Aroldis, Quiz and Henke...

Francisco Rodriguez
976 IP | 69 ERA- | 80 FIP- | 159 K%+ | 24.4 rWAR | 16.3 fWAR | +23.80 WPA

Dan Quisenberry
1003 IP | 69 ERA- | 82 FIP- | 67 K%+ | 25.1 rWAR | 14.5 fWAR | +20.37 WPA

Tom Henke
789 IP | 64 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 183 K%+ | 24.2 rWAR | 20.6 fWAR | +20.89 WPA

Joe Nathan
761 IP | 59 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 165 K%+ | 25.9 rWAR | 19.5 fWAR | +30.73 WPA

Jonathan Papelbon
709 IP | 58 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 151 K%+ | 22.1 rWAR | 19.2 fWAR | +28.11 WPA

Kenley Jansen
813 IP | 64 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 169 K%+ | 22.3 rWAR | 23.4 fWAR | +24.82 WPA

Craig Kimbrel
757 IP | 58 ERA- | 60 FIP- | 187 K%+ | 23.5 rWAR | 21.3 fWAR | +24.70 WPA 

Aroldis Chapman
698 IP | 62 ERA- | 57 FIP- | 190 K%+ | 20.5 rWAR | 21.8 fWAR | +20.67 WPA

Here K-Rod has the massive edge in IP on the non-Quiz field, but isn't able to leverage it into any meaningful advantage in WAR or WPA because he just wasn't as good on a per inning basis. His FIP- being so much worse than everybody else except a 1980's sidewinding submariner who didn't strike anyone out is a pretty good representation of the frequent "heart attack" nature of Francisco's saves.

Feel like this also does a nice job showing just how hard it is for a reliever to stick around and dominate long enough to put up HoVG, much less HoF numbers. Even if Hader were to double his career totals from age 23-29 over the next seven seasons from age 30-36 he'd come in at 776 IP | 60 ERA- | 64 FIP- | 186 K%+ | 25.6 rWAR | 22.6 fWAR | +30.80 WPA.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

48 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Not sure I'd have any other reliever as Hall worthy besides Wagner at this point.

Obviously Mariano is a class of his own at 1233 IP | 46 ERA- | 60 FIP- | 53.6 rWAR | 38.6 fWAR | +55.76 WPA for his career.

After that I'd have Wagner grouped in a tier with Hoffman and Smith...

Lee Smith
1252 IP | 75 ERA- | 74 FIP- | 157 K%+ | 27.7 rWAR | 25.8 rWAR | +24.36 WPA

Trevor Hoffman
1089 IP | 71 ERA- | 73 FIP- | 150 K%+ | 28.6 rWAR | 25.9 fWAR | +32.78 WPA

Billy Wagner
903 IP | 54 ERA- | 63 FIP- | 190 K%+ | 30.1 rWAR | 24.0 fWAR | +28.40 WPA

On a per inning basis Wagner is closer to Mariano than these guys. That he has the highest rWAR and is ballpark on fWAR and WPA despite a 186 and a 255 IP deficit to Trevor and Lee is pretty remarkable really.

I'd have Francisco in the HoVG tier with guys like Nathan, Papelbon, Kenley, Kimbrel, Aroldis, Quiz and Henke...

Francisco Rodriguez
976 IP | 69 ERA- | 80 FIP- | 159 K%+ | 24.4 rWAR | 16.3 fWAR | +23.80 WPA

Dan Quisenberry
1003 IP | 69 ERA- | 82 FIP- | 67 K%+ | 25.1 rWAR | 14.5 fWAR | +20.37 WPA

Tom Henke
789 IP | 64 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 183 K%+ | 24.2 rWAR | 20.6 fWAR | +20.89 WPA

Joe Nathan
761 IP | 59 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 165 K%+ | 25.9 rWAR | 19.5 fWAR | +30.73 WPA

Jonathan Papelbon
709 IP | 58 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 151 K%+ | 22.1 rWAR | 19.2 fWAR | +28.11 WPA

Kenley Jansen
813 IP | 64 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 169 K%+ | 22.3 rWAR | 23.4 fWAR | +24.82 WPA

Craig Kimbrel
757 IP | 58 ERA- | 60 FIP- | 187 K%+ | 23.5 rWAR | 21.3 fWAR | +24.70 WPA 

Aroldis Chapman
698 IP | 62 ERA- | 57 FIP- | 190 K%+ | 20.5 rWAR | 21.8 fWAR | +20.67 WPA

Here K-Rod has the massive edge in IP on the non-Quiz field, but isn't able to leverage it into any meaningful advantage in WAR or WPA because he just wasn't as good on a per inning basis. His FIP- being so much worse than everybody else except a 1980's sidewinding submariner who didn't strike anyone out is a pretty good representation of the frequent "heart attack" nature of Francisco's saves.

Feel like this also does a nice job showing just how hard it is for a reliever to stick around and dominate long enough to put up HoVG, much less HoF numbers. Even if Hader were to double his career totals from age 23-29 over the next seven seasons from age 30-36 he'd come in at 776 IP | 60 ERA- | 64 FIP- | 186 K%+ | 25.6 rWAR | 22.6 fWAR | +30.80 WPA.

I think my cutoffs for the hall and relievers is somewhere around Papelbon and Nathan... but I can't decide which side of the fence to put them.

It's so hard to evaluate relievers, the current metrics and tiers don't do them justice. I've started leaning on WPA more for them, as it's the only thing that seems to approximate the actual value they bring a team.

[jay87shot]

For position players/starters I usually want a player to have 10 years of being a top 3-5 player at their position (top 10 for pitchers) to go along with a 15+ year career. K- Rod does probably fit that discription 2004-2011 he was a top closer and then again 2014-2016, he played 16 years. So I vote yes, relievers just make it hard, a career 24 WAR is nothing compared to other positions. Usually a player needs around 60 WAR career to be considered.