Why A Brice Turang Trade Makes More Sense than Trading Willy Adames

[Ryan Pollak]

After Corbin Burnes was traded, some fans believe Willy Adames might be the next to go. But does it make more sense to trade young shortstop Brice Turang?

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

We're all still processing the idea of Corbin Burnes in an Orioles jersey. The move has already made fans wonder what is next for the Brewers. They just signed Rhys Hoskins, but they sold Burnes for prospects--albeit ones who barely still hold that designation, and who should help the team this year in their own right. We're hearing the Brewers are open to trading Devin Williams. So', then, where does that leave Willy Adames?

This winter, the Brewers have added Oliver Dunn from the Phillies; claimed Vinny Capra off waivers from the Pirates; and acquired Joey Ortiz from the Orioles. With seven middle infielders on the 40-man roster, there’s a logjam forming. It seems like the writing is on the wall and that the Brewers are ready to move on from their shortstop. Or a shortstop, anyway.

For a team that plans to compete, they are putting a lot of their fate in the hands of rookie and sophomore infielders. Adames is the only veteran infielder on the roster. While his time as a Brewer could be coming to an end, it may have to wait a little longer.

Trading Adames leaves more uncertainty in a lineup that can already be highly modular. Keeping Adames locks up one of the positions on the field, leaving third and second open for the taking. There is one other candidate who could be traded--who can be used to build the team for 2024 and the future: Brice Turang.

Yes, his career is just beginning, and he seems primed to take over for Adames if they let him walk. But that could be also be said for the newly acquired Ortiz. Here’s why it makes more sense to trade Turang over Adames.

The Similarities
The Brewers have multiple players who can play multiple positions on the infield, but that’s not enough to take eyes off Adames as the player who needs to be traded. What can, however, is the type of player Adames is compared to the field.

Looking at Adames's stats, he has a .242/.319/.454 slash line with 75 home runs and a 111 OPS+ since joining the Brewers in May 2021. Last season, his Barrel rate (12.4%) only trailed Corey Seager among shortstops, and he was among the top 50 of all players.

While his whiff rate and strikeout rate are concerning, these stats show Adames is a power hitter at heart. You didn’t even need to see these stats to come to that conclusion. There is no other player in the infield who can supply the role Adames has. Turang is a different story.

In Turang’s three seasons in Triple-A Nashville, Turang hit .279/.365/.404 with 17 home runs and 107 RBI. He walked 103 times against 163 strikeouts, making him a patient hitter who focuses on getting on base. He made his MLB debut in 2023, where he struggled to get on base and was sent down. However, he was called up later in the season, where he showed signs of improvement.

Ortiz, though a year older, has had a similar path to the start of his career. He was drafted back in 2019, in the fourth round. Though shortstop is his natural position, Ortiz has the ability to play either second or third base and provide plus defense. According to MLB Pipeline, Ortiz’s fielding graded a 65 out of a possible 80.

He did suffer a torn labrum in his non-throwing arm, but has bounced back well since then. In his two seasons of experience in Triple-A Norfolk, Ortiz has hit 327/.383/.521 with 13 home runs and 72 RBI. While his ability to hit is there, it hasn’t exactly translated to the majors yet. He really hasn’t had a fair chance, only playing in 15 games and being optioned back down on a few occasions.

Turang and Ortiz are virtually the same player, in the same situation. Both could eventually take over for Adames at short. They each have six years of club control remaining, and have struggled to get things going in their brief time in MLB. These two were right next to each other on FanGraphs's top 100 prospects entering 2023, with Turang ranked one spot ahead of Ortiz at 65. However Turang never made MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prior to his debut last season.

No matter how you grade them, these guys are not so different from each other. While having two of the same player is great, both of them are MLB ready and are fighting for one roster spot.

The Money and Value
One of the many benefits of young players just getting their career started is how little of the payroll they take up. One of the drawbacks is that they tend to be in need of further development; they're often fairly raw.

Most of these players get paid the minimum based off of their service time. In this case, for Turang, he will make around $740,000 this season. Then, he'll likely gain Super Two status in a couple of years.

Adames, on the other hand, is nearly gone already. Any team that trades for the shortstop knows that there is a possibility he walks away in free agency next season. To top it off, teams that want him will also have to add the $12.2 million he is owed this season to their books.

Where teams like the Dodgers might not balk at the opportunity to add Adames, others like the Marlins, Rays and Guardians might need to think twice about taking on that much money.

To give away prospects for a rental is one thing. But to add millions of dollars to your payroll when you are not sure where you stand in the division is another thing. Not to mention the TV deals with Bally Sports have already been a cause of dropped payrolls this season. In short, Adames's trade value is unlikely to far outstrip Turang's.

The Logjams/Needs
Owen Miller, Andruw Monasterio, Tyler Black, Christian Arroyo, Dunn, Capra, Turang and Ortiz are all battling for (at most) four spots on the 26-man roster. The others will be assigned to the minor leagues.

Each of these players are ready for the majors, and sending them down is not doing them favors. Sure, the Brewers could sell off Adames, but that doesn’t sound like it fulfills the one promise Matt Arnold made to the fan base: competing for the division.

Adames is the heart and soul of this team. Whether on or off the field, he always seems to have something to say. He’s also been a major player the last few years in their playoff clinching seasons.

So, then, what do the Brewers do to help the pile-up in the infield? They should show a sign of competing by selling one of their fluid surfeit of young infielders to fill a need on the roster. They could still use a power bat at third or in the DH spot.

The organization has time to make a splash if they would like to. While they don’t necessarily have to, another strong, veteran presence in the lineup or the starting rotation could revitalize some of the hope in the fanbase.

This team is ready to compete, regardless what they do next. The Burnes trade and the resulting uncertainty may have panicked Brewers fans expecting that a veteran player like Adames will be next to go. Let’s not get too ahead of ourselves, as there are other potential players who could be on the move like Turang. Come back tomorrow, when we will look at three potential trades involving Turang.

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Will the Brewers make another trade? Are the Brewers going to trade away Adames or Turang? Will they remain competitive without either of these players? Let us know.

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[jay87shot]

I don't think trading Turang makes sense, his trade value would be low and his upside is well above the other 2B candidates. Unless we are swept off our feet for Adames before the season, I think our IF is fine. 3B Ortiz, SS Adames, 2B Turang, when Black comes up in Mid-May-June then Black splits time between 3B, 2B, 1B, DH, maybe occasionally OF. If Black shows to be a decent defender at 1 spot then you can shift the IF accordingly when Adames leaves.

[rolafaive]

Your argument for keeping Adames doesn't make sense, you will lose him in a year to free agency because the Brewers are not going to extend him, Turang can be used at 2nd  and Ortiz at short, and if Black is all he is supposed to be, you have your young infield set for the next 5 years at least, and unless there is a power 1st basemen in the minors your high on, you try to keep Hoskins, all your needs on this team next few years would be building a descent starting rotation around Peralta.

[Trax]

Adames turned down an extension offer last year.  Adames is NOT the heart and soul of this team, he is a short timer.

Unless they get a whale of an offer (which they won't) it makes no sense to trade Turang.  It makes complete sense to trade Adames.  He will be traded very soon, or his trade will be re-visited in May-July.   Better for everyone if it's now.

[cheapseats12]

So let me get this straight. U argue it's better for 24 to keep Adames yet then argue Adames wouldn't have much more trade value to other teams then Turang? Way to contradict yourself and make zero sense. Adames has by far more trade value to intending teams right now and it's not close.

[jay87shot]

I would say Adames is the emotional on field leader. That doesn't mean he is the clubhouse leader. The guy who steps in when things are rough and rights the ship or takes a young guy under his wing and what have you. It could be him but unless your in the clubhouse day to day that is hard to tell. 

[Doug B]

You want to sell low on Turang? You aren't getting much of anything for him. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 2/6/2024 at 2:05 PM, cheapseats12 said:

So let me get this straight. U argue it's better for 24 to keep Adames yet then argue Adames wouldn't have much more trade value to other teams then Turang? Way to contradict yourself and make zero sense. Adames has by far more trade value to intending teams right now and it's not close.

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

I think Adames and Turang have value in very different ways. A team like the Dodgers is probably keen on Adames. A team returning to contention while remaining budget-conscious would likely prefer Turang.

[eddiemathews]

Trade simulator gives slightly more value to Turang over Adames, and that is basically a combination af age and length of control at league minimum/arb. After his hitting performance last year nobody is trading for him to be a regular. By and large, they would be trading for Willy to be a regular for one season. I don't know that either would bring much back; and I don't know that Turang is ever much more than a utility infielder. He's a very good fielder, and a left-handed bat, so there is the potential for a little more. 

Another factor in this calcualtion is the doubt that Willy will be worth a QO next year. Sure, we'd expect a bounceback season, but what if he doesn't? I don't know that the Marlins are interested in one year of Willy, but if they are they might send back Edward Cabrera for him and a lower level shortstop prospect. 

[Ryan Pollak]

On 2/6/2024 at 2:05 PM, cheapseats12 said:

So let me get this straight. U argue it's better for 24 to keep Adames yet then argue Adames wouldn't have much more trade value to other teams then Turang? Way to contradict yourself and make zero sense. Adames has by far more trade value to intending teams right now and it's not close.

Let me explain. With the team trying to compete now, the Brewers find more value keeping Adames for the playoffs than keeping Turang. 

Turang and Adames have varying values depending on the team. A team that is rebuilding, let's say the Athletics, find Turang more valuable because they could use him to rebuild for the future. In that same breathe the Dodgers would value Adames more because they need a shortstop for just the season maybe more.

If the Brewers are trying to make one last run (signs point yes) then buying a player in a trade with Turang IMO makes the most sense.