Did Colin Rea and William Contreras Make a Pitch Selection Mistake to Trent Grisham?

[Jack Stern]

When Colin Rea allowed a go-ahead home run to Trent Grisham in the Brewers' series opener against the Yankees, it initiated a discussion about game planning and what constitutes good pitch selection.

Image courtesy of © Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports

Friday night’s outing was hardly Colin Rea’s best showing. The right-hander allowed a season-high five earned runs. Still, in typical Rea fashion, he ate innings and performed well enough to keep the Brewers in a game they eventually won in extra innings.

All of the scoring against Rea came on a trio of home runs, the last of which was a three-run blast in the fourth inning by Trent Grisham. The pitch that Grisham ambushed was a sinker, which was an interesting pitch call by Rea and William Contreras considering how the at-bat was unfolding.

After falling behind 2-0, Rea fired a sinker down the middle. Grisham launched a fly ball down the right-field line that hooked foul by a few feet and bounced off the top of the railing along the edge of the lodge level down the foul line.

Rea had just gotten away with a hittable pitch. Grisham nearly timed it up but was just early enough to miss a home run. Based on that timing, one could vouch for throwing a breaking ball or changeup with the expectation that Grisham would be further out in front for a whiff or a lazy fly ball.

When a hitter is timing up hard stuff, slowing down his bat can be an effective way to neutralize him. That kind of approach is arguably more crucial for Rea than other pitchers. None of his pitches stand out in terms of velocity or shape, so his effectiveness stems from mixing speeds and locations to keep hitters from growing comfortable against any part of his arsenal.

Rea and Contreras did slow things down on the next pitch with a cutter but then returned to the sinker. Grisham was right on time, depositing it into the second deck in right field.

Should Rea have thrown some breaking or offspeed pitches to get Grisham off the fastball? Pat Murphy didn’t think so.

According to Murphy, Rea and Contreras were trying to attack one of Grisham’s cold zones with a sinker inside. There is no wiggle room between Grisham’s cold and hot zones, so when Rea’s pitch missed its intended location, it drifted into the latter.

“Wherever you see guys’ hot zones, if you study the hot zones, [the cold zones are] right next to it,” Murphy said. “He didn’t execute that pitch. He wanted to get it further in. And it would’ve been a good pitch if he got it further in, but he didn’t, and it’s all about executing it.

To Murphy, the problem was not the attempt to exploit one of Grisham’s cold zones but that Rea failed to locate the pitch.

“I thought it was a good selection, poor execution,” he said, adding later that the pitch probably needed to be higher as well because Grisham likes to drop his barrel on pitches low and inside.

The plan was grounded in statistical reality. Grisham’s slugging heat map against sinkers and two-seam fastballs since the start of 2023 reveals that he has done virtually no damage when he sees them inside and above the belt. As Murphy said, that cold zone immediately gives way to a danger zone when the ball leaks over the plate or below the belt.

If Rea executed the pitch, he likely would have retired Grisham. Even if Grisham had it timed up, his inability to run his barrel through that part of the zone would have produced a harmless swing.

Murphy acknowledged the argument that Rea should have thrown a secondary pitch instead but noted that slowing things down could also backfire.

“If you threw him a breaking ball there, he could have spit on it and took it, you know? But you’re trying to make pitches. Or you hang a breaking ball, and he hits it to the moon, too.”

Rea certainly could have made a mistake with a breaking ball had he thrown it in that situation. However, he would have had a greater margin for error. Grisham’s coverage against breaking balls pales in comparison to his range for damage against sinkers. If a pitcher executes a breaking ball anywhere over the outer half of the plate, Grisham is unlikely to hit it. Seeing it after a fastball would make covering that portion of the zone even more difficult.

The at-bat speaks to the dynamic environment of game planning and pitch effectiveness. The Brewers had a plan against Grisham based on scouting and data, but other data points and in-game observation support another way to pitch him. In either case, Rea needed to execute the plan by hitting his spot. MLB hitters make pitchers pay when they don’t.

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[Brian]

A pitch right down the middle I would say is a mistake. How could it be anything else? 

[Samurai Bucky]

Since I was hearing, "Rea has six pitches" all night, I thought a batting practice two seamer with no movement was not a good choice there.