Oliver Dunn's Whiffs Are Getting Between Him and His Strengths at the Plate

[Jack Stern]

Oliver Dunn has demonstrated the power and patience that served him well in the minor leagues, but the holes in his swing have limited his results.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Oliver Dunn was a feel-good story out of Brewers camp. A post-hype prospect acquired in a minor trade with the Philadelphia Phillies in November, the 26-year-old infielder flashed the tools of a big-league power bat in Double-A last year. A strong spring training and a last-minute injury to Garrett Mitchell allowed him to crack the Opening Day roster and make his MLB debut.

Dunn’s calling cards are his power and elite eye at the plate. Both traits have followed him to the big leagues, but the results have not. Dunn entered Monday with a 52.3% hard-hit rate and an 18.7% chase rate. Both of those marks rank among the best in baseball, yet Dunn has scuffled to a .233/.273/.342 line (75 wRC+).

Most surprising is the low on-base percentage. Dunn’s eye made him an on-base machine in the minor leagues, but he has drawn just three walks on the young season (a 3.9% rate).

How does a patient hitter stop walking, while continuing to lay off pitches outside the zone at an elite rate? It happens when opposing pitchers start aggressively attacking the zone. A hitter cannot draw walks if he isn’t seeing many non-strikes.

Dunn has seen 59.5% of his total pitches in the strike zone, which would lead baseball if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. The league average is 49.8%.

Pitchers feel comfortable being more aggressive against Dunn than against any other hitter, because he has yet to prove he can punish them for such an approach. Dunn has whiffed on 26.1% of his swings on pitches in the zone, which towers above the league average of 16.7%.

While strikeouts are nothing new for Dunn–he struck out at a 27.5% rate in Double-A last year–his swing-and-miss tendencies have proven so extreme against major-league pitching that they’ve drowned out the effectiveness of his strengths. Dunn’s quality of contact is strong, but his 37.7% strikeout rate has left his quantity of contact too low for consistently positive results.

Dunn has struggled against soft stuff, recording one hit each against breaking and offspeed pitches. While he has shown the ability to drive fastballs over the plate, he has also demonstrated a weakness against high-and-away fastballs.

Pitchers have exploited that hole in Dunn’s swing the most. According to TruMedia, 35.2% of the pitches thrown to Dunn have been high (the upper third of the zone and above), compared to the league average of 27%.

While his first month has not been discouraging enough to write off future success, it has indicated that Dunn could use more seasoning at Triple-A. That was the original plan before Mitchell’s injury raised a need for a left-handed power bat.

With Christian Yelich growing closer to a return, it could be Dunn, not Jake Bauers, who is sent to Nashville to open a roster spot. Joey Ortiz has earned everyday reps at third base, as has Blake Perkins in center field. Yelich’s return could push Sal Frelick into Dunn’s current role as the left-handed hitting option at the hot corner.

Until then, the Brewers will continue giving Dunn the chance to prove himself. He has started at third in each of the last four games, with Pat Murphy saying he wanted to “find out about him.”

Regardless of his standing in the infield mix, Dunn clearly has plenty of room for growth. It may be some time before he breaks through against big-league pitching.

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[SF70]

Yeah, Dunn belongs at AAA getting every day AB’s, not at the big-league level taking AB’s away from Joey Ortiz.

[Jim French Stepstool]

I think what they're trying to "find out" about him is can he be good enough to be a placeholder. Maybe share the job with Ortiz until an Adames exit moves Ortiz to SS, and by then perhaps Wilkin or maybe even Boeve can emit a serious challenge.

I agree with most/all on here that Ortiz should be getting the lions' share of PT. We all know how much they value glovework though, and Dunn has really surprised me there. Is there something wonky about Ortiz' shoulder/elbow that's allowing him to play, but affecting the throws?

[Samurai Bucky]

Dunn's performance should not come as that much of a surprise.  He is one of five infielders that have 0 or 1 year of experience.  Of the six outfielders on the roster, four have 0 or 1 year (the other two are Yelich and then Mitchell with 2).

During the offseason, there were many discussions about how we can not only get the young players up, but how we can trade our veterans to get more young players.  Dunn's performance is part of the growing pains of being a young player.  I'm not sure bouncing players up and down multiple times a year is always the best course of action.  If there are other options that will beat him out for the spot, go ahead and send him down to get some work.  Otherwise, accept that fact that setting a goal of having a boat load of young players on the roster will yield very inconsistent results.

Source:  https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/teams/milwaukee/roster/