Three Things We've Learned About the 2024 Brewers in the Season's First Half

[Jack Stern]

Larger takeaways start to solidify by the midpoint of the regular season. It's been a telling first half for the Brewers, who have established their aura as a team after carrying many unknowns into the start of the year.

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

The Brewers opened the mathematical second half of the regular season with a win over the division-rival Cubs at home. At this juncture, the club finds itself in a better position than even the more optimistic preseason predictions forecasted: the third-best winning percentage (.598) in the National League and a 6.5-game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central.

Most early-season noise has dissipated by the halfway point, and a club’s identity solidifies. That’s not to say the Brewers will continue performing at their current level for the rest of the schedule, but it does mean the season has reached a threshold at which larger concrete takeaways become plausible. Here are three things we’ve learned about this Brewers team.

The Brewers' most balanced lineup in years may also be its best.
Milwaukee’s offense has assumed many shapes over the past few seasons, and most have produced lackluster results. In a seven-year stretch from 2017 through 2023, the Brewers had a below-average offense by wRC+ in five seasons. Last year’s iteration was the worst in a full season during that stretch, finishing with a 92 wRC+ that ranked 24th in baseball and a .385 slugging percentage that ranked 25th.

This year, the club’s 108 wRC+ places 10th in the sport. Some good fortune has probably elevated that figure, but the offense still grades out as average according to process-centric metrics like xwOBA (.319) and DRC+ (100). More balance has been the key.

In past seasons, the Brewers have relied heavily on home runs while struggling to get on base or find other ways to score. Last season, they worked counts and boasted one of the highest walk rates in baseball, but a lack of power–their .146 ISO was the third-worst in baseball–rendered the offense punchless.

The 2024 Brewers feature a productive blend of on-base ability, speed, and power that equips them with multiple ways to score runs. They rank fourth in baseball in on-base percentage (.331) and second in stolen bases (114) while maintaining a league-average home run rate (2.7%). 

Players like Brice Turang, Blake Perkins, and Sal Frelick have contributed by reaching base and taking extra bases. Others like Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers have provided power. Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and Joey Ortiz have anchored the lineup by demonstrating both attributes.

While the offense has faced some inevitable regression in June, the ingredients of a sustainably above-average lineup are present. The Brewers have clubbed four grand slams in the past week, three of which have been go-ahead shots, demonstrating that they feature enough thump to slug their way out of prolonged slumps when the hits dry up.

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The run-prevention system was built to weather hits to the pitching depth.
As of this writing, the Brewers have an entire starting rotation on the injured list. In addition to the anticipated absence of Brandon Woodruff, the Brewers have lost Wade Miley and Robert Gasser for the year due to Tommy John surgery. DL Hall and Joe Ross round out the list, and Jakob Junis was on the shelf for ten weeks after making his first start.

The Brewers have kept chugging along, though. Colin Rea has emerged as the de facto ace amid Freddy Peralta's inconsistency. Tobias Myers and Bryse Wilson have stepped into starting roles with solid results.

Those three have combined for a 3.59 ERA in 213 ⅓ innings, but their isolated performances have more closely resembled those of back-of-the-rotation depth starters. Their 4.74 FIP and 4.42 SIERA are far less flattering.

Those discrepancies are not coincidental, however. Rea, Myers, and Wilson have benefitted from a run-prevention infrastructure purposely constructed to maximize their results.

The Brewers are an excellent defensive team. They feature three shortstops in the infield and rangy center fielders across the outfield. That mobility enables the pitching staff to record outs on balls that would fall for hits against other teams.

This system was already in place last year. Milwaukee’s 68 Defensive Runs Saved ranked second in baseball, and their pitchers allowed the lowest batting average on balls in play (.267). This year, it’s been more of the same, as the Brewers are seventh in DRS (30) and BABIP (.278). The trio of Rea, Myers, and Wilson have benefitted from a .252 BABIP.

“The Milwaukee Brewers always have to play defense,” Pat Murphy said. “It just makes sense for our team to be able to baserun as good as we can, to be able to play defense, and to have a multitude of pitchers available.”

That defensive unit helps that multitude of pitchers overperform the results one might expect based on their arsenals and the kind of contact they induce. It makes it far more feasible to plug an inexperienced or underperforming arm into the rotation and receive competitive results. If that pitcher throws strikes and keeps the ball in the yard, the Brewers will make plays behind them.

“It’s not just you throwing the baseball out there,” Matt Arnold said. “You have to execute that pitch, and some of that is the pitch call that comes from the catcher or the dugout. The defense behind them, a guy puts the ball in play, you [see] the plays from Brice [Turang] and Willy [Adames]. It’s just like, these guys, it’s a team effort. It really is. And so I think the combination of all those guys, all the ingredients certainly helps the pitchers.”

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Pat Murphy is the right man for the job.
The Brewers raised eyebrows when they promoted their longtime bench coach as Craig Counsell’s successor. Whereas Counsell became heralded for his new-school style that skillfully intertwined a data-driven approach with excellent communication skills, Murphy had a reputation as a fiery old-school coach from his days as a collegiate head coach. Those seem like sharply contrasting styles, which raised questions about the team's direction.

Fast-forward a few months, and Murphy has proven that he was the right choice to manage the 2024 Brewers.

The more Murphy talked throughout spring training about his philosophy, the clearer it became that his outdated rap did not accurately reflect the kind of manager he would be in his first full-time MLB opportunity.

Murphy already had the respect of returning players from his time as bench coach and quickly endeared himself to the rest of the clubhouse. Players affectionately dubbed him “Patches,” a reference to the elderly and eccentric coach from the 2004 film Dodgeball. Murphy primarily communicates through his sense of humor and blunt speech but also knows when to handle delicate situations with greater care and sensitivity. That blend has made him the perfect leader for a young roster.

As the season progressed, Murphy married his knowledge from experience with his willingness to continue learning as a student of the game. While he maintains that his experienced eye can tell him much of what he needs to know, he also welcomes data and conversations with an analytical front office.

“Our game’s going to the data, and you’ve got to embrace it,” Murphy said during a pregame session with the media last month. “Because the data, it’s there for us to look at… You kind of can see it, but a lot of times, you’re fooled. So it’s a great way to kind of validate what you think you see. And that’s why I like it.”

Given the open mind he carried into his new role, it’s no surprise that Murphy’s performance as a strategist has steadily improved along the way.

The evolution of his bullpen management is an example. Murphy allowed key relievers to shoulder questionable workloads during the season’s inaugural weeks but has since spoken in detail about monitoring and pacing his bullpen arms. He has kept his high-leverage relievers down several times and trusted his “B” relievers in bigger spots. The balance between winning now and down the road is challenging to strike, and Murphy has gotten far better at it over time.

Murphy has still made some debatable choices throughout the year, but no manager always pushes the right button or is immune to nitpicking. The bottom line is that he has successfully fulfilled the primary responsibilities of a manager: he’s been a positive leadership figure and has put his players in positions to succeed far more often than not.

 

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[sveumrules]

I’ll add a fourth…resiliency.

Brewers have had five losing streaks of three games so far.

Not only have they managed to nip those losing streaks in the Bud after three games, they’ve also bounced back strong after each one…

10-3 (0-3) 7-2 (0-3) 3-0 (0-3) 16-9 (0-3) 8-4 (0-3) 5-0 and counting.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

I’ll add a fourth…resiliency.

Brewers have had five losing streaks of three games so far.

Not only have they managed to nip those losing streaks in the Bud after three games, they’ve also bounced back strong after each one…

10-3 (0-3) 7-2 (0-3) 3-0 (0-3) 16-9 (0-3) 8-4 (0-3) 5-0 and counting.

Which is amazing given this rotation. It's kind of the perfect formula to be a very volatile team when you don't have a couple of stoppers in a rotation. Four guys have consecutive bad days and you're just never in the game.