Chris Bassitt Could Be the Best Trade Target for Brewers' Starting Rotation

[Tim Muma]

For the 2024 Milwaukee Brewers to ride out the season at the top of the NL Central, they will need more starting pitching. There’s almost no scenario where GM Matt Arnold gives up enough to get an elite arm for the rotation, but a solid, reliable veteran like Chris Bassitt fits the club like a glove.

Image courtesy of © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays have underachieved again in 2024, sitting 9.5 games out of a playoff spot at the All-Star break with a 44-52 record. They have a few pitchers who would intrigue the Milwaukee Brewers, but 35-year-old Chris Bassitt could be the best balance of salary relief for the Jays and prospect offering from the Brewers. Reports have circulated that, while the Jays would like to compete again in 2025, the club wants to get below the competitive-balance tax trheshold, too. But let’s talk money and team control later.

Bassitt has been an extremely consistent, trustworthy starter throughout his career. He entered the All-Star break owning a 3.52 ERA (115 ERA+), very much in line with his 10-year career average (3.49 ERA, 118 ERA+). Bassitt has had an ERA over 3.60 just once since 2018, when it ballooned to 3.81 in 2019. His 21.3% strikeout rate this season is half a percent off his career rate with his FIP (3.72) a bit better than his typical number.

Moreover, Bassitt has historically been an even better second-half pitcher – an ideal trait for someone acquired for a postseason push. 

 

He hasn’t done this after swapping teams mid-season, but pitching is pitching, and he would be going to one of the best organizations when it comes to improving a hurler’s performance. Still, he’s had some issues in 2024, which might actually make him less desirable around the league--and, thus, more attainable for the Brewers.

Bassitt might be fighting an element of bad luck this season, too, with his BABIP sitting at .326. His career norm is 41 points lower, at .285. Still, he did finish the first half with what would be some of his worst marks since 2016, including WHIP (1.44), H/9 (9.1) and BB% (9.6%). Also, his last two starts before the break didn’t go well, despite getting the win in his final pre-break appearance:

2 GS, 10 IP, 7 ER, 13 H, 9 K, 8 BB and an opponent slash of .302/.412/.326

However, July has typically been Bassitt’s second-worst month in his career, posting worse overall numbers only in the March/April portion of the season. Plus, Bassitt didn’t allow a home run in either of those two starts, dropping his HR/9 to 0.7, his lowest output since 2015. That is a significant reason batters are slugging only .361 against him this season.

One other component to his game that could get him back on track would be severely limiting his use of the sinker. While Bassitt has had terrific success with it in the past (particularly last season), hitters are murdering that pitch in 2024. And he's throwing the sinker at a higher rate than he has the past few years, so it's making an enormous impact on his output.



As for the two big off-the-field questions: what does his contract look like, and what would the return entail? The latter will be impacted somewhat by the former, or at least by how much money (if any) the Blue Jays would be willing to eat.

Bassitt would cost around $8 million for the remainder of this season and is under contract in 2025. However, the price tag for that full season is $21 million. That is, admittedly, a large number to pay a pitcher of Bassitt’s caliber and age, but it's something Milwaukee could swing with a mostly young and inexpensive squad, along with money coming off the books (e.g., Willy Adames’ $12.25 million). But how much can Milwaukee shave off their own cost by connecting better returning talent to Toronto in exchange for the Blue Jays eating some cost?

It's always a challenge to figure out what teams want in terms of prospects when they aren’t trading away top talent. Would the Jays go for quantity over quality? Do they target a specific position? Do they ask for the best prospect Milwaukee would offer? It might feel like “too much,” but if the Blue Jays send cash to cover half of Bassitt’s 2025 salary, the Brewers could offer a pair of prospects a little bit down the ladder in their system and a third guy as a lottery ticket.

One would believe Toronto would like a couple of pitchers in return, and the Brewers would likely be fine sending an outfield prospect to Canada as well, considering their propensity to collect them in the organization. Again, the asking price for Bassitt may be lower, or perhaps the Brewers would balk at paying too much of his salary. That is for conversations inside the walls of American Family Field.

But if the Brewers believe in Bassitt’s consistency and second-half prowess, he’s the type of addition they desperately need. It also gives Milwaukee another rotation option for 2025, to help prevent a situation like the one in which they find themselves now. Bassitt can take the Wade Miley role, assuming Miley is done or goes elsewhere.

So how does Chris Bassitt sound to you? He’s not a big splash, though it’s unlikely the Brewers go that route big, anyway. Is Bassitt too much risk? Too much cost? There will certainly be 5-10 names of starting pitchers you hear through the trade deadline, but figuring out which one or two end up landing with the Brewers is the ultimate guessing game.

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[Brian]

 

[Outlander]

He is a good target but that is a large amount for next year. Would be pretty set with starting pitching next year though with Peralta/Bassitt/Woodruff/Myers/Rhea/Civale/Hall. He's had a real nice career after he reached 30+, didn't do much of anything in his twenties.

[wallus]

You would have to get the Jays to pay probably 5+ million next year to make it work. They would also have to take a lottery ticket back for this to make sense. Bassitt has negative trade value.

If they would do that, we should be interested.

[Matt Breen]

I'd love Bassitt. I'm a little worried that he's been pretty hittable this year - but that seems more of an anomaly. And our defense would help him. His 2025 salary is concerning - but if we can manage it - that would be cool. 

I would love to add a player like this without giving up any decent prospects. For us, it's about taking on salary. If we can do that - great. 

[KingJay]

Yeah no Bassitt doesn't have negative trade value lol, I mean Zach Efflin is a bit of a worse pitcher and has an 18 Million salary next year and was traded for three prospects. That being said he's not a fit for your team.

Realistically the Jay's would just hold on to him next year and if they're out of the playoff picture trade him then. 

[wallus]

2 hours ago, KingJay said:

Yeah no Bassitt doesn't have negative trade value lol, I mean Zach Efflin is a bit of a worse pitcher and has an 18 Million salary next year and was traded for three prospects. That being said he's not a fit for your team.

Realistically the Jay's would just hold on to him next year and if they're out of the playoff picture trade him then. 

-6.9 on the Baseball Trade Value website....

Efflin: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/zach-eflin-621107?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Bassitt: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/chris-bassitt-605135?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb