Can Internal Upgrades Really Replace Trade Deadline Acquisitions for Brewers?

[Jake McKibbin]

The Brewers are in need of quality (as opposed to quantity) to reinforce their playoff-aspiring pitching staff. The good news is that they may have the talent internally to bolster their roster. Have they what they need to get by without a major addition?

Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

With the bullpen faltering of late and crying out for someone who can lock down the eighth and ninth innings, the Brewers may need an arm that works in high leverage. Hoby Milner has been snakebitten so far this season, while Joel Payamps and Elvis Peguero have proved unreliable and taken a step back from their 2023 performances. Even Trevor Megill and Bryan Hudson have shown signs of wear and tear in recent games. They also are in dire need of someone with the type of elite stuff that can start games and get several times through the order while not relying entirely on their defense. So where might these upgrades come from?

The Bullpen
With one of the most heavily-used bullpens in baseball, it's no surprise that things have looked a little shakier in July than the lockdown versions in earlier months. The Brewers have incredible depth, but a lack of minor-league options among those players does hamper them slightly. Peguero is the only core piece who can be optioned, as of now. Peguero has seen a lot of action in the 8th inning of late, but has been as up-and-down as they come, with a propensity for ground balls and walks that can lead to some blow-up innings. Thankfully, the most obvious “upgrade” may be able to fix this.

Devin Williams is likely due back after another three to four relief outings, at most--perhaps by the middle of next week, if things go well in recovering from each appearance. The fastball was a tick down (with a little less extension and IVB than usual) in his latest rehab outing, but it’s not a massive difference. Hopefully, it will tick up again as he loosens and limbers. More importantly, the changeup was as good as ever, with that unique two-plane break, and he was commanding it to the edges of the strike zone well. 

It won’t be long at all until Williams returns, which can push Megill to a setup role and (hopefully) solidify the closers (plural) spots a little. Megill has worked fewer innings than any other full-year reliever so far, and his stuff is still electric, meaning this recent stretch might just be a small blip. The Brewers may have that dominant closing pair that can reduce games to a seven-inning affair for the opposition again soon. Hopefully, that will allow more leverage to use the likes of Hudson more sparingly because of the limited workload on the Megill/Williams pairing thus far. Having that quality in even lower-leverage spots will be a real boost to the scrappy offense the Crew have this season.

The other option is very out-there, but brings a ton of excitement. Craig Yoho was the 8th-round selection out of Arkansas in 2023, and not many people realized just how electric his stuff was. With a screwball/changeup to rival Williams's (accompanied by a boomerang sweeper and a sinker), Yoho has a variety of looping pitches that work in contrasting ways to tunnel together. He was aggressively promoted to Double-A Biloxi, and has shown himself almost too good for the level:

• 0.42 FIP
• 41.6% Whiff rate
• xFIP 1.22
• 45% Strikeout rate
• 0.505 OPS

Yoho has been an absolute stud this season, and there’s a very tangible reason the Brewers should believe he could get outs right now in the major leagues. It may not necessarily be immediately in that high-leverage role, but he has the stuff to do it, and even as that unorthodox right-handed reliever, he can be really effective in the middle innings or to clean up messes on the base paths with the swing-and-miss stuff.

The Brewers have a lot of depth in their bullpen, and are already struggling with the lack of optionability. They may even end up trading some of these players at the deadline, to teams needing bullpen reinforcements, and if they do (especially given the expanded 28-man September rosters), we may see Yoho getting a shot.

The Starting Rotation
The one ingredient the Brewers are missing right now is a lights-out starter who can wipe out opposing hitters with nasty stuff. Everyone knows the name Jacob Misiorowski and what he can do, but it's an issue on which I vacillate often. First among these is the workload concern with Misiorowski pitching, having already passed the 70-inning mark he reached last season before getting shut down due to “arm fatigue”, on top of some poorer performances when pushed to four days' rest instead of five. There’s a concern the increased pressure and added stress may end horribly for the Brewers in this sense.

Then, there’s the fact that he has been more susceptible to the long ball since he’s found the strike zone more. His last two starts have been magnificent, but he had two separate appearances in June in which he gave up three home runs, which raises the question of whether he’s truly ready for the jump. The Southern League is a very pitcher-friendly environment, especially this year, and it might be leading us to view Misiorowski more favorably than he's really earning.

With all that taken into account, though, there is an undeniable sense that he’s growing into his own. His fastball is getting quicker as the year goes on, while the control has turned with the weather. Since Jun. 1, he has just a 7.2% walk rate, and he hasn’t walked more than two hitters in any of his last seven outings. Also, during that span, he has a 34% whiff rate (which has gotten even better in July), and he worked into the 7th inning for the first time in his professional career.

Matt Arnold has made it clear that the Brewers are seriously considering promoting Misiorowski in the second half of the season, while also being mindful of the injury risk that’s there already. Ideally, I would love it if Misiorowski was an amalgamation of the relief and starter role, perhaps going through four to five innings in a game in September and getting a taste for the big leagues--while not pushing too hard on the results element of the process to keep the stress levels down. He’s very, very unlikely to be going six innings at a time or be treated like a regular starter, but he may be able to go a couple of times through the batting order, and with his profile, that can be incredibly valuable in late September and October.

Finally, there’s the eventual return of DL Hall. For all of my optimism about the improved pitch shape and the velocity on his fastball returning somewhat, there’s a nagging concern about the results he’s going to get in the majors. He hasn’t been overmatching hitters the way an 80-grade fastball and 60/70-grade breaking pitches should, and it worries me what’s going to happen if he returns to the rotation. His last start against Norfolk wasn’t ideal, and perhaps suggested more of a long relief profile (he went just 49 pitches), but he struggled to find the zone and has been getting fouled off a lot, dragging his pitch count up. I think he can be serviceable at the big-league level, but I’m not entirely sure the dreamed-upon elite version of him as a starter will come through until 2025 at this point after the knee surgery and some offseason work.

Is It Enough?
I still think the Brewers may need someone who can provide some length in their rotation, and Erick Fedde may be the perfect target. Assuming they won’t go big on Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal and will rely on development of their top prospects to remain competitive in the coming years, Fedde possibly is the best option in terms of team control. He's signed through 2025 on an affordable contract, while providing excellence in all facets that can be elevated further by the Brewers'  run prevention unit.

Aaron Civale could produce similar results, if he can keep his command in check, but DL Hall hasn’t convinced me that I’d want him starting in October. Joe Ross getting lit up by the Orioles' Triple-A affiliate (and Jackson Holliday, in particular) doesn’t assuage many fears, either. The Brewers have strength in depth coming into the second half, but they could really do with some strength in isolation to go with it.

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[Sugarrayray]

Fantastic! Agree with these sentiments.

I have to say though, when I’m being honest with myself, I just really don’t think Hall has the gumption, fortitude, and control to be a starter. Even beyond this year. I know his ability to add some length is tantalizing, but at least for the rest of this year he should be tried as a one inning reliever, like last year, where he doesn’t have to think/preserve strength as much and can just let it go. 
 

That’s what it looks like to my eyes at least. Of course, mine eyes occasionally lie :)

[brewmann04]

I am supposing that Hall will take a role in the Bullpen.

they going to need to trade if they want Starters.

 

[Samurai Bucky]

32 minutes ago, Sugarrayray said:

I have to say though, when I’m being honest with myself, I just really don’t think Hall has the gumption, fortitude, and control to be a starter. Even beyond this year. I know his ability to add some length is tantalizing, but at least for the rest of this year he should be tried as a one inning reliever, like last year, where he doesn’t have to think/preserve strength as much and can just let it go. 

I agree with you.  At this point of the season, I don't know if the Brewers can rely on somebody from the Minors that hasn't seen any meaningful, productive time at the Major League level.  Williams, obviously, is a known commodity (as long as he stays healthy).  Hall wasn't a starter and they tried to make him in to one.  Ross is a starter, but hasn't been good even before his hiatus.  

I would like to see them trade for a known starter -- one with a decent track record.  Move Hall to the bullpen and I don't know what would happen with Ross.

[Jim French Stepstool]

10 minutes ago, Samurai Bucky said:

I agree with you.  At this point of the season, I don't know if the Brewers can rely on somebody from the Minors that hasn't seen any meaningful, productive time at the Major League level.  Williams, obviously, is a known commodity (as long as he stays healthy).  Hall wasn't a starter and they tried to make him in to one.  Ross is a starter, but hasn't been good even before his hiatus.  

I would like to see them trade for a known starter -- one with a decent track record.  Move Hall to the bullpen and I don't know what would happen with Ross.

They're in a strange position right now with Hall. Even if he starts to pitch better in rehab, he pretty much appears relegated to the pen. He's left-handed, and right now they have four LH's in the BP. He'd kinda be a LH version of Junis & Wilson, but both of those guys are better options right now. If Hall doesn't develop starting pitcher chops in '25 & beyond I think the organization is going to be pretty disappointed. AFA adding to the right side of the BP is concerned, there would be an element of risk due to it being his first taste of the bigs but my gut tells me anyone they trade for that would be better than Yoho would cost too much for my taste.

I'm not to the point of giving up on someone like Peguero. He's been maddeningly inconsistent but is truly exceptional if/when he works from ahead.

If they trade for more pitching I agree I'd lean toward a starter. I have no idea what it would take but I'm convinced they would definitely include Black if motivated.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Not to be anal Jake, but Yoho is from Indiana.

[Jason Wang]

1 hour ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Not to be anal Jake, but Yoho is from Indiana.

Fellow IU fan spotted

[BrewerFan]

I'm still not in favor of bringing up Misiorowski this year...but IF you're going to limit him to 2-3 innings every few days, I could be convinced. Not as a full-fledged starter. I think he needs more time. This is a guy with a massive ceiling and I don't want to rush him at all, so I'm a bit torn. 

I would be good with targeting Skubal, but that's gonna hurt. Quero, Black, Pratt and then another prospect like a Lara. I'd HOPE we could replace Pratt with someone else. Bitonti? I don't know, I love both, but Skubal is a legit ace and he fits the Brewers so perfectly. 

When they do hit the ball, it's on the ground. See if they can swing that, then put a 5/110 deal in front of him? You then have him for 5 years instead of 2. 

 

He's the only guy I'd go and give up a crazy haul of prospects for. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

5 hours ago, Jason Wang said:

Fellow IU fan spotted

Sorry, I bleed cardinal & white.😁

Congrats on being chosen to speak at commencement though. That's pretty sweet.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I'm still not in favor of bringing up Misiorowski this year...but IF you're going to limit him to 2-3 innings every few days, I could be convinced. Not as a full-fledged starter. I think he needs more time. This is a guy with a massive ceiling and I don't want to rush him at all, so I'm a bit torn. 

I would be good with targeting Skubal, but that's gonna hurt. Quero, Black, Pratt and then another prospect like a Lara. I'd HOPE we could replace Pratt with someone else. Bitonti? I don't know, I love both, but Skubal is a legit ace and he fits the Brewers so perfectly. 

When they do hit the ball, it's on the ground. See if they can swing that, then put a 5/110 deal in front of him? You then have him for 5 years instead of 2. 

 

He's the only guy I'd go and give up a crazy haul of prospects for. 

That might be a little light as to what it would take for Skubal. Plus it's hard to value Quero with him having to sit out this season, especially with it being his right shoulder. You probably would have to include Miso, which I really don't want to do.

I lean towards your attitude re Miso coming up this year. I know when asked they didn't close the door to it,but I get the feeling they'd rather not.