Are the Brewers Making a Crucial Mistake With Jackson Chourio?

[Harold Hutchison]

Jackson Chourio has made history for the Brewers, as the first rookie to notch a 20-20 season for them--a milestone that eluded Ryan Braun, Paul Molitor, Rickie Weeks, and Robin Yount, among other luminaries. But could the Brewers be making a big mistake with this incredible talent?

Image courtesy of © Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Jackson Chourio has become arguably the most potent threat in the Brewers lineup in the second half of 2024, and he’s been nothing short of dominant since the beginning of June. However, on 31 occasions, the Brewers have put Chourio in the “wrong” slot of the lineup, often against left-handed starters.

We discussed how the Brewers lineup would look for a healthy team earlier, and Chourio is pretty high up, but there was a reason that he was slotted for the second spot in the lineup – at least with a healthy Christian Yelich. The likely leadoff options, absent Yelich and eschewing Chourio, are either Brice Turang or Sal Frelick.

Against righties, Turang, Frelick, and Yelich all hit left-handed, so batting Chourio second would be logical to break up the lefties in the lineup. However, Turang and Frelick struggle against left-handed starters. So, the Brewers are using Chourio as their leadoff hitter against lefties. 

But with Yelich out, Chourio is arguably the best hitter on the team, and while he is solid at getting on base (.328 OBP) and possesses the speed to be a legitimate threat on the basepaths (21 stolen bases, tied with Yelich for third on the team), two of the most important tools for a leadoff hitter, there’s a number that makes the case against his use in the leadoff spot very rock-solid: 53.

That is the number of extra-base hits Chourio has. A bat as dynamic as Chourio’s needs not just protection from other bats (so teams don’t intentionally walk him), but to have people who can get on base ahead of him in the lineup. If Chourio’s going to do damage, the Brewers benefit more if the big hit comes with men on base.

Chourio leading off the game just doesn’t make sense, on that front. It wastes his extra-base power. Leadoff homers are nice, and with this pitching staff, jumping to an early lead doesn’t hurt, but the Crew can do better.

It would be one thing if there weren’t other legitimate options to lead off. In 2017 and 2018, the Crew gave Eric Thames 39 games in the leadoff spot. To be honest, Thames was even less suited for leadoff than Chourio, posting only 11 stolen bases over those two years, even though he had superb OBP skills. Back then, though, the Brewers probably didn’t have much of an option. Even in 2018, when Lorenzo Cain primarily handled leadoff, there wasn't an obvious alternative when he needed a day off.

In 2024, the Crew can choose other paths. Frelick and Turang are solid options against right-handed pitchers. But the Brewers also have other options when facing lefties like Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, and Sean Manaea.

Joey Ortiz and Blake Perkins both boast OBPs within 10 points (plus or minus) of Chourio’s, and would arguably be comparably viable as leadoff hitters. Perkins has a .328 OBP against lefties and walks at a solid rate. He also brings speed to the table, with 22 steals on the campaign. Ortiz could even bat second on such occasions, nudging Chourio down to third and letting William Contreras, Willy Adames, Garrett Mitchell and Rhys Hoskins pile up behind him.

Jackson Chourio’s bat is arguably the most dynamic one the 2024 Brewers have on their active roster, and the Brewers need that bat in the heart of the order. Against lefties, there's a case for sliding him up to the top, but it makes just as much sense to trust some less powerful players with similar on-base skills to get on in front of him and set the table.

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[Bashopolis]

Chourio slugging against northpaws: .550ish   Against southpaws: 330ish.  
in MLB. 
Could be a small sample size fluke: under 150PA against lefties.  
 

But this and the plethora of other right hand hitting power bats available likely play heavily into the Brewers decision making.  

[homer]

Chourio has a reverse split so moving him up against lefties doesn't really make sense (845 OPS against righties, 679 vs lefties). As for hitting leadoff, I'd like to see how the team offense does in games he does lead off compared to games he does not.

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, homer said:

Chourio has a reverse split so moving him up against lefties doesn't really make sense (845 OPS against righties, 679 vs lefties). As for hitting leadoff, I'd like to see how the team offense does in games he does lead off compared to games he does not.

Jackson’s minor league splits were…

2023
.818 OPS vsR (407 PAs)
.772 OPS vsL (176 PAs)

2022
.924 OPS vsR (357 PAs)
.677 OPS vsL (82 PAs)

…so he might just be a reverse split guy, though I’d still guess that he will improve on the 88 wRC+ vs LHP that he has posted this year as he gets older / better / more experienced.

Kinda hard to put together a good lineup vs LHP based on this years performances, especially with Yelich (153 wRC+ vs LHP) dunzo. Maybe something like…

Chourio (88)
Perkins (105)
Ortiz (122)
Contreras (151)
Hoskins (101)
Adames (69)
Sanchez (99)
Sal (85) / Mitch (80)
Turang (61)

[sveumrules]

@homer not sure if this is exactly what you were after with the second part of your comment, but here is a look at how the Brewers have performed with different leadoff hitters along with their individual numbers while batting leadoff.

First, for some context, league average out of the leadoff spot is currently at 255/326/412 (108 wRC+) with about 97 runs, 21 HR, and 21 SB.

Brewers leadoff hitters have struggled to the tune of 243/309/379 for a 92 wRC+ (25th) with 91 runs (20th), 14 HR (26th), and 40 SB (2nd). As to the individual results…

Andruw Monasterio
(1 W - 2 L | 2.33 R/G)
18 PA | 58 wRC+

Oliver Dunn
(3 W - 1 L | 10.0 R/G)
20 PA | 44 wRC+

William Contreras
(4 W - 4 L | 4.63 R/G)
36 PA | 163 wRC+

Joey Ortiz
(6 W - 3 L | 3.89 R/G)
45 PA | 76 wRC+

Sal Frelick 
(12 W - 7 L | 4.26 R/G)
81 PA | 38 wRC+

Jackson Chourio
(16 W - 15 L | 4.65 R/G)
143 PA | 108 wRC+

Brice Turang
(47 W - 35 L | 4.95 R/G)
370 PA | 95 wRC+

[Ron750]

It may be a mistake, but it’s hardly crucial. That’s a bit of hyperbole. 

[Kripes - Brewers]

14 hours ago, sveumrules said:

 

Oliver Dunn
(3 W - 1 L | 10.0 R/G)
20 PA | 44 wRC+

 

Guess we gotta call Oli back up! 😉Nice work as always!