Brewers place Colin Rea on waivers

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, brewfanmn said:

I’m really not so sure this is the case, or even whether he had a real “swoon” at all

Through July, he had a 4.44 xFIP (3.59 ERA)

After July, he actually had a 4.36 xFIP (5.85 ERA)

It should have been clear to anyone paying attention that the first half ERA was undeserved or at least unsustainable. Of course the same is true about the second-half numbers looking worse than the peripherals, but the bigger takeaway here is that he is a 34-year-old with mediocre stuff, no big league track record, bad peripherals in each of the last two years, and not even a great ERA in that time (4.40). He’s just not a valuable pitcher in an open market. I’m a little surprised how much people are surprised by this

Thanks for the FIP breakout.  I looked at the overall numbers and knew his ERA was massively skewed... but I'm surprised his FIP was that consistent last year.   But I totally agree that overall he has slightly below average performance the last two years.

The surprise probably comes because he filled such a need at the time.  We had injuries in '23 when we came out of nowhere.  Then for a time in '24, he was pitching like an ace before falling off late.  Expectations were low, production was better than expected, so perception is set with people.  Then objective metrics like FIP and other peripherals (which you don't know unless you go look) show a different picture...

[Frisbee Slider]

I think we bought low on Rea, experienced better than expected results and probably are exiting at the right time.

[StearnsFTW]

6 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

It is entirely possible Colin Rea is below replacement level player in 2025. In which case, we wouldn’t want to pay him 5.5 million..

Agreed.

 

 

Even more difficult when you're already paying a different below replacement level player $18m.

[BrewCrew8675309]

19 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'd guess if Rea doesn't have his late season swoon, he was a no-brainer to keep.  Not exactly sure what "happened" to Rea, but it was bad enough to keep him off the playoff roster.

Salary is only and always within the context of performance.  Pay Ohtani $2M/year?  Easy button decision.  Paying me $2M/year? Hard pass (for the Brewers... I'd take it!). 

Rea's extra $4.5M (buyout was guaranteed) doesn't seem like much, but the team must assume he wasn't going to get better than his current form...and potentially regress (he turns 35 next year). 

It also wouldn't surprise me to find out that 40man roster spots played into the decision.

 

It is very possible that the team values the kids being added to the 40 man roster moreso than some fringe vets. Knowing $$$ will be tight, as it always is with this team/owner, the Ernesto Martinez' of the world may get a longer leash than the Jake Bauer's of the world. Same for Rea and some AA kids like Shane Smith. We will see. 

[Playing Catch]

17 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Salary is only and always within the context of performance. 

This is very true, and you are correct. My point was more about the possibility that it was about dedicating a roster spot to Rea at all, regardless of salary. In other words, if he was making the minimum, would they go with him?

18 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

It is entirely possible Colin Rea is below replacement level player in 2025

Even with all of his innings pitched, his total fWAR was 0.9, so he was barely above replacement level with any given start.

[Devinep]

On 11/3/2024 at 1:56 PM, sveumrules said:

The Brewers income will be going down next year because of the TV situation.

I’d characterize spending less when income decreases as more of a financial reality than sad cheapness.

There was never going to be a bunch of anything either way, the position player group that scored the 6th most runs in baseball and posted the 5th highest WAR is losing only one player of consequence.

Besides the standard moves around the edges, and barring the out of nowhere surprise deal, the offseason was always going to be essentially two pronged - trade Williams if there is an intriguing offer and try to find someone to mitigate Adames departure.

Having to be cheap due to the economic situation is still being cheap.  And I’m concerned that cheapness (justified or not) means Yoan freaking Moncada or someone one essentially replaces Adames. A lineup with that type of switch still looks ok, until one realizes that lineups validity relies on the health of Yeli, the health/continued production of Mitchell, and improvement from Hoskins. If one or more of those issues pops up, this lineup could look sketchy quick. That’s why I really hope they get one good hitter of the caliber at least near Adames. Lowe, Suarez, Happ, profar, somebody with some pop

[Lathund]

$5.5m (Or a $4.5m decision, considering the buyout) for Colin Rea is not at all unreasonable in and of itself. $5.5m for Colin Rea if you have a $110-$120m budget and he is likely 6th or 7th on the SP depth chart is a bad idea, and you'd be better off spending the money on pretty much any other position.