Here's Why Brewers Won't Trade Devin Williams at MLB Winter Meetings

[Matthew Trueblood]

We know the shoe is going to drop, but it's unlikely to drop this week. There are too many ways the team benefits by waiting a while longer.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

There's a lot happening in the market for elite relief pitchers right now. According to some reports, the Cardinals—expected, previously, to trade Ryan Helsley—might be more inclined to hold onto their All-Star closer. The Mets snapped up one of the top relievers on the free-agent market over the weekend, in ex-Yankees righty Clay Holmes—but they intend to convert him to a starting pitcher. That continues a pattern, of late, and one that might well extend even further when fellow free agent Jeff Hoffman finds a home later this winter.

For those reasons, don't expect the Brewers to trade Devin Williams this week. They're still very likely to trade him, just as they traded Corbin Burnes in the endgame of the offseason before this past campaign—but just as they benefited by waiting out the market until they got the offer they wanted for Burnes, they might believe they can do the same by waiting out suitors on Williams. Every converted reliever who moves to the rotation (be it a free agent, or an ace reliever staying put, like the Twins' Griffin Jax) creates ripple effects throughout the league. If the Cardinals are planning not to deal Helsley, that creates ripples, too. When other top relievers on the market who are not candidates to switch to starting (like Tanner Scott and Carlos Estévez) sign, they'll leave the teams who miss out on them increasingly hungry.

Scarcity looks poised to prevail in the market for relievers, and the Brewers have the patience to foresee that and capitalize on it—even if that comes with some risk. If they end up trading Williams a month or more from now, they might have limited options when they turn around to spend some of the money they save in the transaction. Still, they know that eventually, the right deal will materialize. Moreover, we could see Matt Arnold spend the money he knows he'll eventually save by trading Williams even before he does so. Last winter, he signed Rhys Hoskins before trading Burnes.

Ordinarily, teams are wary of doing things in that order, knowing that teams with whom they're negotiating on trades would try to use their budget as a cudgel against them if they were financially overextended. One reason why the Brewers are so careful not to commit themselves publicly to a payroll figure, or even a range, is so that they can avoid being thus pinned down. Does that mean they can really afford to both keep Williams and make any significant addition via free agency? Probably not. But they retain plausible deniability if a team does try to hold their feet to the fire that way.

Thus, it's probably not the time for a Williams trade. That doesn't mean the Brewers won't be active at the Winter Meetings; they might well pull the trigger on an unrelated deal. As uncomfortable as it might be for fans, though, the team knows that even if they have to wait until late in the game to make their big offseason plays, they can execute them better than almost any other front office in the league. Like the man they'll eventually deal for multiple long-term pieces, they're superb closers.

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[jay87shot]

Agree, the closer trade market won't heat until the top 3 or 4 closer options sign but my guess is that Arnold and crew will be working like dogs doing a ton of leg work to get put trades in process with a number of teams for when Hoffman, Scott, Estevez sign. 

If there are any deals this week I think they will be for setting the salary up, I could see Civale being a trade early type of piece, with the prices the starters who have sign already. I wouldn't be to surprised to see a couple other bullpen pieces like Peguero or Payamps to get traded early either. 

[jesusoftheapes]

On 12/9/2024 at 8:44 AM, jay87shot said:

Agree, the closer trade market won't heat until the top 3 or 4 closer options sign but my guess is that Arnold and crew will be working like dogs doing a ton of leg work to get put trades in process with a number of teams for when Hoffman, Scott, Estevez sign. 

If there are any deals this week I think they will be for setting the salary up, I could see Civale being a trade early type of piece, with the prices the starters who have sign already. I wouldn't be to surprised to see a couple other bullpen pieces like Peguero or Payamps to get traded early either. 

Civale is probably not going anywhere. Murphy really likes him and unless the Brewers fall flat in 2025 and trade him at the deadline in firesale Big Butt pitcher is part of the 2025 pitching rotation.     Even if they sign Sasaki which I believe is coming on the 15th of the new year they still need starting pitching with experience to hold down the rotation until the younger prospects become regular MLB names through 2025 and 2026 so players like Civale  .   

Garrett Crochet is also being worked on to get a trade with the Sox and I still do not believe they move on from Civale if this happens along with Sasaki.   Civale is a good fit in Milwaukee and he fills a great need with Wilson, Rea, and Montez being left to the market and not being on the 2025 Brewers roster.  Rea is a bigger loss than we all want to admit and keeping ahold of the vet pitching the roster currently carries is the only way to mitigate this lack of F's given to resigning Colin Rea. 

I think this Crew has plans we the fan do not yet understand at pitcher.  The foreseeable future in the starting rotation will require signings this offseason to make this rotation whole enough to compete at the highest levels.   Sasaki, Bauer, and Crochet are all in the mix of possibilities and our farm pitching has a part to play in the 2025 rotation but it seems less ready to produce a pitcher or two for the starting rotation as it was in 2024 with Myers and Gasser.   In 2025 Misiorowski could take a big step into the bigs with a strong Spring Training period he could be a guy who starts like Gasser did in 2024.  Myers freak breakout season was never part of the plan for 2024 but without him this team was not even close to almost beating them Mets.   The Crew need some help from Farms to make 2025 work and I am not sure they have the rookie power they had in 2024.   Time will tell.    

[jesusoftheapes]

On 12/9/2024 at 8:44 AM, jay87shot said:

Agree, the closer trade market won't heat until the top 3 or 4 closer options sign but my guess is that Arnold and crew will be working like dogs doing a ton of leg work to get put trades in process with a number of teams for when Hoffman, Scott, Estevez sign. 

If there are any deals this week I think they will be for setting the salary up, I could see Civale being a trade early type of piece, with the prices the starters who have sign already. I wouldn't be to surprised to see a couple other bullpen pieces like Peguero or Payamps to get traded early either. 

Peguero is a Cub.  So that is not really helping the Crew much. 

[jesusoftheapes]

Well who knows?  I have a hunch Williams is much more popular than Cobin Burns was last offseason and at these meetings there are almost every MLB team trying to talk to Arnold about what it would take to acquire him.  Simply put the Brewers have not had a value trade piece this meaningful since Hader.   If they wait or if this goes down this week will simply come to the offers made. 

 

My question is about Sasaki and Crochet who sound like the Crew is actively attempting to put onto the 2025 roster.    

[Outlander]

2 hours ago, jesusoftheapes said:

Peguero is a Cub.  So that is not really helping the Crew much. 

I'm not understanding what you are trying to say here.

[jay87shot]

3 hours ago, jesusoftheapes said:

My question is about Sasaki and Crochet who sound like the Crew is actively attempting to put onto the 2025 roster.    

The likelihood of getting Sasaki is probably like 1%, there is just more money(advertising/long term), attention, and notoriety elsewhere. Sure we will try to get him but in reality there isn't much in Milwaukee to lure a big time foreign player. Crochet I would say maybe like 10 percent, I think our front office is doing their due diligence but I can't see us overpaying for Crochet and with the starting pitching values on the market someone is going to give up a ton for Crochet.