Barring Injuries, Connor Thomas and Abner Uribe Have Inside Track for Final Spots in Brewers Bullpen

[Matthew Trueblood]

With two weeks left until Opening Day, the Brewers have to dodge injuries a while longer before zeroing in on their pitching staff for that day. Right now, though, it looks like there are three pitchers competing for the final two spots.

Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Brewers fervently believe that Elvin Rodriguez can help them win games, but as was true of Grant Anderson and Grant Wolfram, it's more likely that he'll do so after Memorial Day. Unlike Anderson and Wolfram, Rodriguez survived Monday's roster cuts, but it's likely that he'll end up joining them in Nashville to open the campaign.

That would leave, in effect, three pitchers battling for the final two spots in the Brewers' relief corps: Rule 5 pick Connor Thomas, and optionable but high-upside righties Elvis Peguero and Abner Uribe. Peguero has faced more batters in high-leverage situations since the start of 2023 than any Brewers relievers but Devin Williams and Joel Payamps. Uribe might have the most electric arm on the team. Thomas has to stay on the active roster, or be placed on waivers and (if he clears) offered the choice either to return to the Cardinals or to elect free agency. Leaving any of them out would pose some level of discomfort for the team.

The safest bet in that set is that Thomas will make the team. He had an uneven outing Tuesday in Mesa, against the Cubs, but he's had a strong spring, and the Brewers are excited about what he can contribute. So, for that matter, is Thomas, who said he's a different, better pitcher than the one who was outrighted off the Cardinals' 40-man roster in Nov. 2023.

"I think the biggest thing would be the role change," Thomas said Monday. "I went from starting to relieving, and seemed to have a lot of success there. And then from there, it was just kind of my usages. I dropped my sinker almost in half, versus my cutter [and] slider, so essentially I just stopped throwing fastballs—as crazy as that sounds, it seems to have worked for me."

Indeed, not throwing fastballs would be highly unusual for a Brewers hurler—but the Brewers don't think of "fastballs" the same way the Cardinals, whence Thomas came, do. His sinker and cutter will be his predominant fastballs going forward, and that's a good thing, given his profile. Thomas said the team immediately reached out after taking him, to say that they had a new set of ideas about how to use the cutter.

"Just figure out where I need to throw the cutter, and in what counts, and how to leverage that to allow me to use my arsenal to my full potential," he recalled. "I have a really good sinker and a really good changeup as well, so how to use that cutter to help everything else play better is huge."

If Thomas's stuff plays up as the team helps him remix his arsenal, they won't let him get away easily at the front end of the season. The final spot, then, will come down to Peguero and Uribe.

The first concern about trying to carry Uribe is the fact that he'd need to be placed on the suspended list for the first four games, forcing them to play an arm short over that span. In theory, the start of the season is a good time to live that way, because everyone should be relatively fresh and there's a built-in day off after Opening Day at Yankee Stadium in New York. However, the reason for that day off is the real risk of a weather-related postponement, and if that postponement happened, the four games would all come without an off day. The first three would be against a diminished but dangerous Yankees lineup.

There's also some chance that Nestor Cortes will need to be away from the team over that span. His wife is due to give birth in mid-April, but should that joyous occasion come a couple of weeks early, the team would have to scramble a bit. Of course, they'd be able to place Cortes on the paternity list and call up an arm (Peguero, in this hypothetical) to take his place on the roster, but that would leave them with one fewer starter the first turn through the rotation and add pressure to the bullpen.

Because Thomas, Tyler Alexander, and Bryan Hudson can all give them a bit of length, though, the Crew can navigate whatever comes at them—again, barring further injury issues, which would make their decision easier in an unfortunate way. Carrying Uribe to open the campaign is viable, and he's looked downright nasty this spring. We've seen him hit 100 mph a handful of times, and he's recovering well between appearances. His sweeper is a dark-horse candidate for the best pitch on the staff right now.

That leaves Peguero. Manager Pat Murphy talked positively about the movement on Peguero's signature sinker after his last two appearances, but there's another pitch characteristic we need to talk about when it comes to the (usually!) hard-throwing right-hander.

Peguero's velocity is down a full 2 mph from last season—even last March. He's more reliant on movement and less so on velocity than many two-pitch relievers, but there's a huge difference in what hitters can do with that sinker boring in on their hands and diving below their barrels if it's at 97, and what they can do if it's 94 or 95.

Watch Peguero's velocity closely whenever he pitches in Statcast-tracked settings the rest of camp. If his velocity bounces back, he has a fair shot to edge out Uribe for the final spot in the pen. If not, though, expect to see him at Triple A when the team breaks camp in two weeks. Even if he eventually finds success at a lower velocity threshold, the team will want to make sure he has time to figure out how to do so, in a lower-stakes setting.

Thomas and Uribe have a tangible set of advantages, but there's a lot of spring training left. As ever, that's a threat, not a promise. The Brewers' pen picture is getting clearer in a hurry—but it's drawn on an Etch-a-Sketch, and another balky elbow or oblique issue could shake it up.

View full article

[Sugarrayray]

I guess I just don’t love the redundancy of having Alexander and Thomas in the bullpen. I just don’t think both are needed. 
 

Regardless, I think Thomas will be returned in the first month or so or the season. Too much roster inflexibility for a not very talented guy.

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 minutes ago, Sugarrayray said:

I guess I just don’t love the redundancy of having Alexander and Thomas in the bullpen. I just don’t think both are needed. 
 

Regardless, I think Thomas will be returned in the first month or so or the season. Too much roster inflexibility for a not very talented guy.

Certainly possible they have to waive him at some point. I will say, there's basically no chance he goes back to the Cardinals. Even if he clears waivers, because he was outrighted once before, he has the right to elect free agency instead of going back to St. Louis. He would 100% choose to re-sign with the Brewers, rather than return to the Cardinals org, where he was not especially happy.

[jesusoftheapes]

The one thing I could care less about in 2025 is Abner Uribe .      The guy is not someone I value at all anymore and think his time here as a prospect is not as big of a deal as others do.   I am not an Urbie believer.    I think his issues are that of the Mexican League player destined for leagues outside of MLB and a long and hard career in baseball that sees him fighting to get back to the MLB serval times as his career goes down.     He may turn a switch someday and become a pitcher you can count on but it won't be in 2025 and I doubt it will be with the Brewers at any point.  I will leave room for him to prove me wrong without badgering the guy and wish him the best.   I do not see it however and think all the hype surrounding him is peanuts compared to other prospects in this system .  Abner looks like a wonderful trade piece when he is healthy for now though and should be as long as the Brewers keep up the hype machine and Abner keeps throwing 100 mph. 

With so many better options than Abner and Thomas in the Bullpen I ask why?  Why Abner and Thomas and not Henderson and Yoho?   Abner has done next to nothing to deserve the hype .    I know he has a 100 mph pitch but so do 75 other guys playing in Mexico and Korea right now who were not good enough for the MLB mentally and Abner seems that person. I love the slap fighting pitcher as a story but as a pitcher he has not lived up to the hype and seems a lot like the Abner who struggled through March last year is brining that struggle into 2025 and well into the future as struggle is Abner Uribe in a nutshell.   

Thomas was always a big question mark for me.   We let Shane Smith rule 5 over to the White Sox and signed Thomas to replace him when Shane Smith was 10X better than Connor Thomas .  Shane Smith throws a 97 MPH fastball that has movement and he has a couple ways to throw it. Connor Thomas DOESN'T come close.    Why did we do this ?  Picking Thomas rule 5 is forcing him onto the 40 man.  Putting a pitcher on the 40 man would have been how we kept Shane Smith but chose not to.   Side by side trading Shane Smith for Connor Thomas say mid 2024 would have been considered a BAD trade that the team would never have been stupid enough to be involved with.  Then 2025 offseason happens and that is essentially what we got in the end.   We traded Shane Smith to the White Sox for nothing and paid the Cardinals to take a pitcher who simply has never shown to be good enough to work MLB bullpens.      Shane Smith on the other hand looks like he is going to START for the  White Sox opening weekend sometime in the next couple weeks while Connor Thomas looks like we should send him back to St. Louis and pay them extra to take him back before he loses games for the Brewers.     A reliever who pitches early inninge like Thomas is NOT as valued as Shane Smith who just struck out Shohi , Freeman and Will Smith back to back to back just this week and has the White Sox fanbase believing they found a gem.    

[Sugarrayray]

4 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Certainly possible they have to waive him at some point. I will say, there's basically no chance he goes back to the Cardinals. Even if he clears waivers, because he was outrighted once before, he has the right to elect free agency instead of going back to St. Louis. He would 100% choose to re-sign with the Brewers, rather than return to the Cardinals org, where he was not especially happy.

That would be ideal; a much better outcome.

It doesn’t surprise me at all because we all know the Cardinals org is foul, and several big league players have shared that upon leaving, but has he shared why he was not especially happy?

[Outlander]

18 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Certainly possible they have to waive him at some point. I will say, there's basically no chance he goes back to the Cardinals. Even if he clears waivers, because he was outrighted once before, he has the right to elect free agency instead of going back to St. Louis. He would 100% choose to re-sign with the Brewers, rather than return to the Cardinals org, where he was not especially happy.

I would rather not the Brewers have to deal with a rule 5 guy. It's a risk to get rid of him but offer him a 40 man spot and add him to the shuttle.

[wiguy94]

23 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Certainly possible they have to waive him at some point. I will say, there's basically no chance he goes back to the Cardinals. Even if he clears waivers, because he was outrighted once before, he has the right to elect free agency instead of going back to St. Louis. He would 100% choose to re-sign with the Brewers, rather than return to the Cardinals org, where he was not especially happy.

Does it still work that way with him being a Rule 5 pick?

[wiguy94]

I think Uribe makes the opening day roster pretty much entirely because of the suspension though him pitching well in ST helps keep him there for more than the 4 game suspension. Just makes the most sense to get it out of the way right away. Hopefully mother nature is agreeable and game 1 in the Yankees series can be played.

[Matthew Trueblood]

30 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Does it still work that way with him being a Rule 5 pick?

Yeah, that's what I'm clarifying here. It gets talked about very differently, but it's not. A Rule 5 pick, until they clear waivers, is just like any other player who DOESN'T have minor-league options. Then, if they DO clear waivers, the choice to accept and outright them transfers from the team who drafted them back to the team from whom they were drafted, *unless* the player has been outrighted before, in which case they're just like any other player who's been outrighted before, and they can either accept the assignment or (much more commonly) elect to become a FA.

[wiguy94]

Just now, Matthew Trueblood said:

Yeah, that's what I'm clarifying here. It gets talked about very differently, but it's not. A Rule 5 pick, until they clear waivers, is just like any other player who DOESN'T have minor-league options. Then, if they DO clear waivers, the choice to accept and outright them transfers from the team who drafted them back to the team from whom they were drafted, *unless* the player has been outrighted before, in which case they're just like any other player who's been outrighted before, and they can either accept the assignment or (much more commonly) elect to become a FA.

Honestly seems like a bit of a market inefficiency to go after players who have been outrighted in the Rule 5 draft then. Specifically pitchers from orgs not known for being good with pitching development. Bring them in and have them get on board with how the Brewers operate then if/when time comes for them to be waived they will be interested in sticking around.

[Matthew Trueblood]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

Honestly seems like a bit of a market inefficiency to go after players who have been outrighted in the Rule 5 draft then. Specifically pitchers from orgs not known for being good with pitching development. Bring them in and have them get on board with how the Brewers operate then if/when time comes for them to be waived they will be interested in sticking around.

Sure. I do know that has crossed the Brewers' minds. But it's a teeeeny-tiny market inefficiency, y'know? Like, a worthwhile talent whom everyone missed once (or who made a late reinvention or role conversion or whatever) has to not be added, then fall to you in the R5, then you have to get them past all 29 other teams... This might happen once every five years, somewhere in the league? And then half the time, the player won't pan out anyway, right? Fun little loophole to wriggle through if you have no better use of a roster spot for the winter, though.

[wiguy94]

25 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Sure. I do know that has crossed the Brewers' minds. But it's a teeeeny-tiny market inefficiency, y'know? Like, a worthwhile talent whom everyone missed once (or who made a late reinvention or role conversion or whatever) has to not be added, then fall to you in the R5, then you have to get them past all 29 other teams... This might happen once every five years, somewhere in the league? And then half the time, the player won't pan out anyway, right? Fun little loophole to wriggle through if you have no better use of a roster spot for the winter, though.

Even if it's small I'll still take it especially with pitching which I feel produces late bloomers exponentially more often than position players. I don't think you can ever turn down more pitching depth and if a move like this could end up getting an arm into your system every few years you take advantage of it.