Pat Murphy's Eighth-Inning Mismanagement Dealt a Blow to Brewers' Chances in Game 3

[Tim Muma]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

The Milwaukee Brewers failed to put away the Chicago Cubs in Game 3 of the NLDS, turning a potential sweep into hope for the North Siders. Though most of the club's opportunities were squandered by poor execution, manager Pat Murphy's decision-making in the top of the eighth inning had a negative impact.

There were two key moments Murphy arguably mismanaged in the frame with the Brewers trailing 4-3. The first call is much more subjective, since it involved a potential bunt, but the second choice should have been obvious. Let's start with the latter, as that was more egregious, confusing, and potentially game-changing.

Down a run, Milwaukee had runners on first and second with one out. Chicago's left-handed reliever, Caleb Thielbar, had just walked William Contreras by essentially pitching around him to bring up lefty Sal Frelick. That was the time Murphy should have gone to Andrew Vaughn off the bench. Instead, he stuck with Frelick, who bounced into a fielder's choice, and the Brewers would fail to score the rest of the contest.

Vaughn should have been an obvious choice in one of the biggest spots in the game. He has crushed southpaws this season, with a slash line of .313/.389/.470 in 132 plate appearances. Meanwhile, lefties own a measly .161 average against Thielbar in 2025. (Righties haven't been that much better, at .205/.248/.342, but it's fair to say that Thielbar was a rough matchup for Frelick and would have been an enticing one for Vaughn.)

Why didn't Murphy make this move? It wasn't addressed postgame, so we can only speculate. There are three possible options, but none of them are defensible.

1. Murphy didn't want to compromise his outfield defense, as Jake Bauers would have to play the outfield after Brandon Lockridge and Isaac Collins were already out of the game. When you are trailing in the eighth inning, you don't worry about defense, at least within reason. Bauers is a viable defender.
2. The manager was worried about Vaughn hitting into a double play to end the inning, and Frelick would be far less likely to suffer a twin killing. If this was the thought process, it is playing "not to lose," a horrible way to manage a playoff game with a chance to advance.
3. Murphy just felt Frelick gave the Brewers a better shot; more of a gut decision. That might be the most respectable reason among the three, but it's still suboptimal; all the signs pointed to Vaughn being the best option.

There's no guarantee Vaughn would have come up with the big hit, but it would have been the right move to put the Brewers in the best position to succeed. Let's hope that "non-move" doesn't open the door for the Cubs.

Earlier in the eighth inning, the ideal managerial decision wasn't as clear (at least initially), but it was worth discussing, especially after the first pitch to Brice Turang. Turang stood in against Thielbar after Jackson Chourio led off the inning with a double. Representing the tying run at second base, it was imperative that Turang at least move him to third with less than two outs. With Turange hitting from the left side, it was fair to see if he could simply roll over on a ball to the pull side to get the job done. But after he whiffed terribly at a sweeper well off the plate, it should have alerted Murphy to another option: a sacrifice bunt.

I know about all the numbers and reasoning for not bunting. It's also the traditional take that you don't "play for the tie" on the road, which would be the idea behind such a bunt: prioritizing getting Chourio home. But sometimes the stats and the typical way of thinking need to take a back seat to what is staring you in the face in the moment. Turang flailed helplessly at the first pitch, and (though perhaps we're being unduly influenced by him going 0-for-his-last-7 with three strikeouts) he looked like he had zero chance of making contact.

The situation then screamed to drop down a bunt, put some pressure on the defense (which the Brewers often do) and see what happens. If it works, the tying run is at third with one out for Contreras. At best, Turang beats it out for a hit or (better yet) the Cubs' defense throws the ball away. Sometimes playing for one run leads to more offense, but either way, it would have given Milwaukee a path to victory in Game 3.

Instead, the Brewers and Cubs will hook up at Wrigley Field on Thursday for Game 4. The series's outcome will ultimately be decided by the players, but certain moments could hinge on Murphy's in-game decision-making.

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[BrewCrew156]

I'm not a fan of Yelich batting first. It didn't work the last week of the regular season. Stick to what was working. Maybe switch Turang and Frelick. Turang seems to be struggling at the top. 

[tmwiese55]

I also haven't gotten the switch to leadoff of Yeli.        

To this topic.  I put that inning on Turang.  I hate making a lefty hitter bunt a guy to 3rd.  All he has to do is put ball in play and you still get the move over while also having the chance of getting hit.   That said, if Turang after that first pitch felt he couldn't hit it (which based on the complete lack of effort on his swings I get) that he felt a bunt towards 3rd was his best bet to get over but to also steal a hit or cause an error that's his call.  But I don't blame the manager that he should call it, a lefty hitter simply has to have a better AB than that. 

I get the Vaughn critique. I didn't love the earlier timings of PHs either to use up those other guys when they did either.  For example, without those earlier PHs you could've used Collins/Perk for Frelick there and still had good D

[Jim French Stepstool]

In the eighth inning Murphy was thinking ahead to the ninth w/Monasterio & Perkins due up. I suspect that's where he was already slotting Vaughn (personally I would've used Vaughn for Perkins, not Monasterio). He liked the idea of Frelick vs Thielbar more than Mona & Perkins vs Keller. And I don't see him using Jansen as a PH in the 9th vs a RHP.

I agree re the bunt. It's not necessarily giving up an out & you're pressuring the INF. But after strike one, I felt any chance of seeing it went out the window.

[Jim French Stepstool]

28 minutes ago, BrewCrew156 said:

I'm not a fan of Yelich batting first. It didn't work the last week of the regular season. Stick to what was working. Maybe switch Turang and Frelick. Turang seems to be struggling at the top. 

Of the three LHH mentioned, I like Frelick at the top of the order. But in a relatively short post-season I think managers can get caught up in the idea of getting your better hitters more PAs.

I'd say Yelich has been swinging it OK. But yeah, you have to question how often he'll see baserunners when he comes to the plate if leading off.

[Daubs]

I know Murphy wanted LH batters at the plate in the 7th when Collins and Perkins appeared, but had he only PHd Perkins for Lockridge and left Collins on the bench, it might have opened more options in the 8th had Collins been available to pinch run for Chourio.  Maybe a bunt by Turang may have been attempted?

[Tim Muma]

27 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

In the eighth inning Murphy was thinking ahead to the ninth w/Monasterio & Perkins due up. I suspect that's where he was already slotting Vaughn (personally I would've used Vaughn for Perkins, not Monasterio). He liked the idea of Frelick vs Thielbar more than Mona & Perkins vs Keller. And I don't see him using Jansen as a PH in the 9th vs a RHP.

I agree re the bunt. It's not necessarily giving up an out & you're pressuring the INF. But after strike one, I felt any chance of seeing it went out the window.

If that was the case, again, that is just a bad process and poor strategy. You already had the tying and go-ahead runners on base AND you would have Vaughn against a lefty. Pressure and multiple factors in the Brewers' favor. The 9th inning situation doesn't matter if the 8th inning goes well. Now in the 9th, you have Vaughn versus a RH with no one on base. Lower pressure and far less of an advantage.

[Jim French Stepstool]

10 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

If that was the case, again, that is just a bad process and poor strategy. You already had the tying and go-ahead runners on base AND you would have Vaughn against a lefty. Pressure and multiple factors in the Brewers' favor. The 9th inning situation doesn't matter if the 8th inning goes well. Now in the 9th, you have Vaughn versus a RH with no one on base. Lower pressure and far less of an advantage.

You make a good argument. But Frelick is hitting around .300 for the year vs LHP. I doubt it was ever considered to pull him back for Vaughn there & I have no problem with it. And if the eighth doesn't go well, the ninth certainly does matter.

Maybe if he had another bench bat for the 9th........but even then I think he stays with Sal.

[Jim French Stepstool]

37 minutes ago, Daubs said:

I know Murphy wanted LH batters at the plate in the 7th when Collins and Perkins appeared, but had he only PHd Perkins for Lockridge and left Collins on the bench, it might have opened more options in the 8th had Collins been available to pinch run for Chourio.  Maybe a bunt by Turang may have been attempted?

Yeah, Turang has had ABs where he's bunted--even when it was semi-expected--and beaten it out or forced a bobble.

Having Collins still available definitely might've changed the dynamic. But the 2nd PH in the 7th was for Ortiz, and it's going to be pretty automatic that he'll be hit for if they're trailing late.

[Team Canada]

Looking at Boyd's game logs, if the Brewers win this there'll be a ton of second guessing by Chicago media/fans. He was lights out June and most of July, and then starting 7/28 he's been downright mediocre at best, with some pretty terrible outings mixed in (2 of which were thanks to the Brewers). 

Famous last words, of course, but I'm not at all disappointed to see him going back out there, especially since we already beat him up G1.

[tmwiese55]

48 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

You make a good argument. But Frelick is hitting around .300 for the year vs LHP. I doubt it was ever considered to pull him back for Vaughn there & I have no problem with it. And if the eighth doesn't go well, the ninth certainly does matter.

Maybe if he had another bench bat for the 9th........but even then I think he stays with Sal.

And to a lot of discussions here over the years on "luck/breaks" of baseball.  Frelick generally hit the ball sharp-ish, just a couple more feet up the middle and its a hit and this discussion isn't taking place

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, Team Canada said:

Looking at Boyd's game logs, if the Brewers win this there'll be a ton of second guessing by Chicago media/fans. He was lights out June and most of July, and then starting 7/28 he's been downright mediocre at best, with some pretty terrible outings mixed in (2 of which were thanks to the Brewers). 

Famous last words, of course, but I'm not at all disappointed to see him going back out there, especially since we already beat him up G1.

Boyd hasn't been great. But "He's left-handed, and Colin Rea isn't" might've been the determiner.

I too, am fine with it.

[Team Canada]

Yeah, maybe not at this point. You have a stronger argument that using Rea for mopup duty was mismanagement. He's had one truly bad start in the last 2+ months.

[Michael Trzinski]

I'll go back to a point about two hours before game time. WHY was Lockridge in the starting lineup? 

Pinch-runner? Yes.
D-replacement? Yes.

Starter? NO.

[Tim Muma]

2 hours ago, Team Canada said:

Looking at Boyd's game logs, if the Brewers win this there'll be a ton of second guessing by Chicago media/fans. He was lights out June and most of July, and then starting 7/28 he's been downright mediocre at best, with some pretty terrible outings mixed in (2 of which were thanks to the Brewers). 

Famous last words, of course, but I'm not at all disappointed to see him going back out there, especially since we already beat him up G1.

There should be an article posted relatively soon looking at Boyd's numbers since August, even at Wrigley Field. The gaudy stats at Wrigley some are touting (12-1, 2.51 ERA)...have to be taken with a grain of salt.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Michael Trzinski said:

I'll go back to a point about two hours before game time. WHY was Lockridge in the starting lineup? 

Pinch-runner? Yes.
D-replacement? Yes.

Starter? NO.

It was posted by someone earlier that Lockridge being in the lineup didn't make a difference in them losing the game. I agreed at the time, but analyzing it further Perkins would've most likely been the hitter when you had the runners at the corners w/one out, instead of Lockridge. And Perkins had collected three hits in the first couple games. My gut tells me we might've seen the same safety squeeze, but maybe Perkins puts it in a better spot.