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Posted

couple years ago  I looked at how much FanGraphs WAR each position player and pitcher with a 2023 Payroll Salary of $20M or more on SpotRac ended up with that year in order to come up with an idea of how much teams paid per win at the top of the market.

All told there were 48 players on free agent contracts or pre-FA extensions in 2023 that made $20M+ and totaled 128.4 WAR for their combined compensation of $1.312B, or about $10.2M per WAR.

In 2025 there were a total of 67 players on free agent contracts of pre-FA extensions that made $20M or more, here is how they did...

Soto ($62.28M) 5.8 WAR
Ohtani ($46.08M) 9.0 WAR
Wheeler ($42M) 5.1 WAR
deGrom ($40.1M) 5.2 WAR
Judge ($40M) 10.1 WAR

($40M tier: 5 at $230.46M for 35.2 WAR)

Rendon ($38.57M) 0.0 WAR
Correa ($37.33M) 2.6 WAR
Trout ($37.12M) 1.8 WAR
Cole ($36M) 0.0 WAR
 
($35M+ tier: 4 at $149.02M for 4.4 WAR)
 
Lindor ($34.15M) 6.3 WAR
Altuve ($33M) 2.1 WAR
Glasnow ($32.5M) 2.5 WAR
Seager ($32.5M) 4.0 WAR
Arenado ($32M) 0.9 WAR
Stanton ($32M) 1.9 WAR
Devers ($31.32M) 3.3 WAR
Burnes ($30.83M) 1.8 WAR
Alonso ($30.2M) 3.6 WAR
 
($30M+ tier 9 at $288.5M for 26.4 WAR)
 
Guerrero Jr. ($28.5M) 3.9 WAR
Snell ($28.44M) 1.9 WAR
Swanson ($28M) 3.3 WAR
Rodon ($27.83M) 4.5 WAR
Harper ($27.54M) 3.5 WAR
Bellinger ($27.5M) 4.9 WAR
Turner ($27.27M) 6.7 WAR
Bryant ($27M) -0.5 WAR
Betts ($26.17M) 3.4 WAR
Semien ($26M) 2.1 WAR
Bogaerts ($25.45M) 3.2 WAR
Chapman ($25.17M) 3.7 WAR
Baez ($25.05M) 1.4 WAR
Bregman ($25M) 3.5 WAR
Flaherty ($25M) 1.3 WAR
Gray ($25M) 1.7 WAR
Ray ($25M) 3.0 WAR
 
($25M+ tier: 17 at $449.92M for 51.5 WAR)
 
Nola ($24.57M) -0.2 WAR
Springer ($24.22M) 5.2 WAR
Castillo ($24.15M) 3.0 WAR
Yelich ($24.09M) 2.4 WAR
Realmuto ($23.88M) 2.1 WAR
Gausman ($23M) 3.9 WAR
Freeman ($22.7M) 3.9 WAR
Montgomery ($22.5M) 0.0 WAR
Story ($22.5M) 3.0 WAR
Eovaldi ($22.1M) 5.8 WAR
Bassitt ($22M) 2.2 WAR
Olson ($22M) 4.7 WAR
Riley ($22M) 1.7 WAR
Sale ($22M) 4.4 WAR
Lopez ($21.75M) 2.0 WAR 
Diaz ($21.55M) 2.8 WAR
Kikuchi ($21.23M) 2.5 WAR
Martinez ($21.05M) 2.1 WAR
Darvish ($21M) 0.0 WAR
Happ ($21M) 2.8 WAR
Marte ($20.75M) 0.7 WAR
Tatis Jr. ($20.71M) 6.1 WAR
Nimmo ($20.5M) 3.0 WAR
Manaea ($20.21M) -0.2 WAR
Rodriguez ($20.21M) 5.7 WAR
Castellanos ($20M) -0.6 WAR
Musgrove ($20M) 0.0 WAR
Perez ($20M) 0.5 WAR
Rodriguez ($20M) 0.4 WAR
Schwarber ($20M) 4.9 WAR
Severino ($20M) 1.1 WAR
Walker ($20M) 1.1 WAR
 
($20M+ tier: 32 at $691.67M for 77.0 WAR) 
 
Put it all together and the 67 players making $20M+ in 2025 got paid somewhere around a combined $1.81B for something like 194.5 total WAR shaking out to an average of about $9.3M per win, an almost $1M improvement over the 2023 results.
 
I didn't separate out pitchers and hitters when compiling the 2023 numbers, but there was a pretty big discrepancy between 41 position players who got paid on average about $8.3M per win in 2025 versus the 26 pitchers who got paid on average about $11.6M per win in 2025.
 
One contributing factor to this was that none of the seven pitchers who topped 6.0 rWAR had high payroll salaries for 2025 though Crochet (2026) plus Skubal, Yamamoto and Peralta (2027) should be clearing the threshold imminently.
 
All told seven of the 26 pitchers (26.9%) had less than 1.0 WAR, with a ceiling of 5.8 WAR. There were also seven hitters with less than 1.0 WAR, but they only made up 17.1% of the 41 position players in the pool and had a much higher ceiling with seven players at or above 5.7 WAR. 
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Posted

It is crazy to think both how much Judge is paid and the fact that it was still a huge surplus value year from the Yankees perspective.

  • Like 1
Posted
43 minutes ago, igor67 said:

It is crazy to think both how much Judge is paid and the fact that it was still a huge surplus value year from the Yankees perspective.

Yeah, 26.1 WAR for $120M over the first three years is pretty insane.

If you figure $360M “should” have bought the Yankees something like 36 to 40 WAR they’re definitely off to a good start.

Posted

I wonder how much of that price difference for pitching WAR factors into the Brewers strategy to emphasize defense so much.

Posted
31 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

This data makes me not want to spend meaningful money in free agency.

Especially when some of those guys who provided little to nothing are still paid multiple years. The Rendon and Bryant deals alone have completely derailed those to organizations for a decade. I get other mismanagement have contributed as well.

Posted
5 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

This data makes me not want to spend meaningful money in free agency.

I’m pretty much in the same boat.

Given the current economic realities of MLB, the optimal approach in a market like Milwaukee appears to be identify & develop enough talent, then either extend them early like Peralta, Ashby, Chourio or play them through Arby’s before trading them or getting a Comp pick to keep the cycle going.

Once the new CBA is settled and Yelich is closer to off the books I could see them signing someone they saw as a perfect fit like Lo Cain back in 2018, twixt now and then though I’d guess any “big” addition is more likely to come via trade.

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