What are the chances that Willis ends up the better QB than Love?

[CheezWizHed]

Willis played some incredible football for the Packers and clearly showed that the Titans gave up on him.  But now, he departs because we are clearly invested in Love. 

But part of me wonders who the better QB will actually be. 

I give Love the edge on arm talent, but not by much.  There are some plays you don't see them run with Willis - so I assume that means he doesn't throw those as well?  Willis' accuracy was much better than advertised, so I'd say the two are pretty equal there. 

Willis gets a clear edge on escaping and managing the pass rush.  His legs are a clear weapon that the D can't forget.  I also give him the edge on being the better "football player" in that he seems more aware of what is going on in the game.  He seems to have intangible "make it happen" leadership that Love struggles with. 

[JosephC]

In 2025, almost all of Willis' passes were thrown against the Ravens and the Bears.  The Ravens ranked 17th in yards allowed per pass play, the Bears ranked 26th.  In 2024, almost all of Willis' passes were thrown against the Colts, the Titans and the Bears.  In 2024, the Titans ranked 7th in yards allowed per pass play (surprise), the Colts were 28th and the Bears were 31st.

It's also worth noting that, in all of the games that Willis has played for the Packers, he has attempted 20+ passes one time.  21 passes against the Ravens this past season in a 41-24 loss.  Same deal with the Titans, in his two years there he attempted 20+ passes in a game 1 time (a 19-14 loss against Houston).

There are some huge red flags on this guy when talking about a 20+ million dollar per year contract.  Hard for me to believe that any NFL team could miss some of these things that are so obvious on the surface, but I have decades of experience watching NFL teams do dumb things with quarterbacks over and over and over and over again.

[CheezWizHed]

24 minutes ago, JosephC said:

In 2025, almost all of Willis' passes were thrown against the Ravens and the Bears.  The Ravens ranked 17th in yards allowed per pass play, the Bears ranked 26th.  In 2024, almost all of Willis' passes were thrown against the Colts, the Titans and the Bears.  In 2024, the Titans ranked 7th in yards allowed per pass play (surprise), the Colts were 28th and the Bears were 31st.

It's also worth noting that, in all of the games that Willis has played for the Packers, he has attempted 20+ passes one time.  21 passes against the Ravens this past season in a 41-24 loss.  Same deal with the Titans, in his two years there he attempted 20+ passes in a game 1 time (a 19-14 loss against Houston).

There are some huge red flags on this guy when talking about a 20+ million dollar per year contract.  Hard for me to believe that any NFL team could miss some of these things that are so obvious on the surface, but I have decades of experience watching NFL teams do dumb things with quarterbacks over and over and over and over again.

I agree that there is a red flag against Willis that the offensive play calling seems to be more of a sub-set than with Love.  Far more running plays (including his own) and fewer play call options than Love does leave some questions marks about MLF's trust in Willis' ability to execute certain plays/throws. 

But I think you are arguing from a lack of information too.  He played (mostly) against bad defenses... but he completed 79% of his passes against those bad defenses.  Good QBs will be excellent against bad teams... and he was.  We really only have one data point against a good defense, so there are some questions there.

But Willis also has some clear advantages over Love too (as I mentioned before). 

I forget if I picked 25% or 50%... but if the multiverse is true, there are worlds where Willis is the better QB and we might just find out if this universe is one of them. 😉

As for $20M QBs... the Jets paid Justin Fields $20M to play QB for them... I'd take Willis over Fields hands down.  Rumors are him getting $30-35M next year.  That might seem crazy, but if those teams don't have a clear path to a top rookie QB next year, trying out Willis on a short-term deal for that price is a gamble, but it wouldn't surprise me if someone takes it.  The supply of excellent QBs is small and teams will pay for even the chance of finding one.  That is the cost of trying to win in the NFL. 

[JosephC]

2 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

 

As for $20M QBs... the Jets paid Justin Fields $20M to play QB for them... I'd take Willis over Fields hands down.  

I would not.  And that is entirely based on the first 6 games Fields started for the Steelers in 2024.  Steelers went 4-2, Fields averaged 27 pass attempts per game, completed 65% of his passes and had a 93.3 QB rating.

I'm not a Fields fan.  Not at all.  I thought the deal he got from the Jets was rather comical.  But at least he has gone out there an been expected to execute a full offense and win games, and he did alright with the Steelers.  Just those 6 games make him much more proven than what Willis has done.  There is just a lot on Willis' resume that give me severe doubts that he will be successful when a team says he is the guy, here is the football, now you'll be playing 1000 snaps and making 450 throws and you'll have to execute a full NFL offense. 

[CheezWizHed]

10 minutes ago, JosephC said:

I would not.  And that is entirely based on the first 6 games Fields started for the Steelers in 2024.  Steelers went 4-2, Fields averaged 27 pass attempts per game, completed 65% of his passes and had a 93.3 QB rating.

I'm not a Fields fan.  Not at all.  I thought the deal he got from the Jets was rather comical.  But at least he has gone out there an been expected to execute a full offense and win games, and he did alright with the Steelers.  Just those 6 games make him much more proven than what Willis has done.  There is just a lot on Willis' resume that give me severe doubts that he will be successful when a team says he is the guy, here is the football, now you'll be playing 1000 snaps and making 450 throws and you'll have to execute a full NFL offense. 

I'll even admit that I'm not convinced that Willis is better than Fields.... But Fields as a player has his upside pretty well "vetted".  The money you are paying is to find out if Willis has more upside.  And if you are a team that won't get one of the top QB draft picks and don't have a great option for next year, I'd rather gamble on Willis than admit defeat with a QB like Fields. 

 

[GAME05]

Fields couldn't beat out Russell Wilson on the Steelers and it sure looked like he was even worse with the Jets than the Indiana Bears. Heck, the season is over and I think Fields is still holding onto the ball. Willis at least gets the "but bad team" excuse with Oilers. Not a ton to go on with the Packers but there has to be a little fudge room left for week-after-week play from wherever imperfect scouting puts him.

2/$60 seems a good price for potentially competent in the absolute perfect year to be a FA QB. 

One can argue Love's ceiling, but probably safe to figure Willis' ceiling is where Love is now. And that makes Love the better QB than Willis. And that's not a dis to Willis because that's still a big fat paycheck.