I Miss The Old Ángel Zerpa, The World Baseball Classic Ángel Zerpa

[Jason Wang]

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Last December’s trade to acquire Ángel Zerpa in exchange for Isaac Collins and Nick Mears was a surprising move to many. There were layers of complexity to the front office's thesis, but most of it was based on the idea that Zerpa had far more upside than the pieces that Milwaukee was sending to Kansas City. It seems obvious, but deriving the future value calculation is easier said than done. Luckily, our very own Jack Stern did an excellent job discussing what he could bring to the table.

Fans didn’t get to see much of Zerpa in spring training, because he spent his time representing Team Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic, but his participation in the tournament arguably offered more optimism than any work in the Cactus League could have. On the way to winning it all, Zerpa posted a flawless 0.00 ERA over 5 ⅓ innings pitched with three hits, two walks, and eight strikeouts—one of which came against a young up-and-comer by the name of Shohei Ohtani.

His stock quickly reached an all-time high, at least in the eyes of Brewers fans, but after seven regular-season appearances, his numbers don’t seem to be those of the pitcher Milwaukee thought they were getting. Across eight innings, Zerpa has a 6.75 ERA, with an 11.1% strikeout rate and below-average peripherals across the board. 

It’s worth pointing out that four of his six earned runs came on April 12 against the Nationals. In this outing, he gave up four hits and one walk while getting just two outs. Part of this was Washington playing a particularly aggressive brand of baseball, looking to steal bases and put balls in play by any means necessary. One could argue that this added an atypical amount of pressure, but it’s still not enough to explain why Zerpa hasn’t looked dominant at all this year.

As a sinker/slider pitcher with league-average velocity, it’s expected that his run prevention comes mostly in the form of ground balls, and he does have a respectable 57.1% ground-ball rate. However, striking out one in nine hitters is just too low to be effective in the long term. He’s not expected to miss too many bats with his sinker, but opposing hitters are making quality contact too often, averaging .286 with a .429 slugging percentage against the pitch. 

Although he has only thrown it nine times, his changeup already carries a run value of -3. It has only been put into play once, ending up as a home run for Willson Contreras. Otherwise, it has lackluster numbers across the board. Part of the issue could be its similarity to his sinker, coming in just 5 MPH slower and sharing similar movement profiles. It has never been a particularly effective weapon for him in the big leagues, and it may be time to make (pardon the pun) a change.

Nonetheless, it’s far too early for the Brewers to be out on Zerpa. Reliever ERAs are notorious for being easily inflated, especially early in the season, and he’s far from the only bullpen arm whose results have been subpar. Eight innings may not be enough to decide whether he’s suitable for the team, but there’s enough data to raise some important red flags. Whether it ends up being his sequencing, pitch mix, or some other esoteric mechanical adjustment, Milwaukee will likely need to change something if they want this bet to pay off. 

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[BarremlensTSSC]

Wait... a pitcher who ramps up early and pitches games like it's the playoffs a month before the season normally starts for the WBC is suddenly less effective in April even without a reported injury?  

I'm shocked.

  

I hate the WBC. I know a lot of people like it and the players who participate seem to enjoy it and take it seriously enough to act contrary to their financial and health interests at times (especially the pitchers) and MLB sees it as a money maker so I know it's not going anywhere, but I hate it.  It's the same stuff every four years: random injuries, dead arms in April, and an offseason of planning for GMs go out the window on the possibility that 30 ownership groups might have a more valuable investment on their hands.

*cue the people who tell me "well actually, injury rates, velocity loss, etc. are the same over time for players who participate in the WBC and those who do not."  (You lost me at "well actually...") 🤣

Yes, this is me:

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 hours ago, BarremlensTSSC said:

Wait... a pitcher who ramps up early and pitches games like it's the playoffs a month before the season normally starts for the WBC is suddenly less effective in April even without a reported injury?  

I'm shocked.

  

I hate the WBC. I know a lot of people like it and the players who participate seem to enjoy it and take it seriously enough to act contrary to their financial and health interests at times (especially the pitchers) and MLB sees it as a money maker so I know it's not going anywhere, but I hate it.  It's the same stuff every four years: random injuries, dead arms in April, and an offseason of planning for GMs go out the window on the possibility that 30 ownership groups might have a more valuable investment on their hands.

*cue the people who tell me "well actually, injury rates, velocity loss, etc. are the same over time for players who participate in the WBC and those who do not."  (You lost me at "well actually...") 🤣

Yes, this is me:

I understand all of those feelings. I invite you to consider that, even though they're paid mostly by their MLB teams, players need not automatically allot all (or even most!) of their loyalty to those teams. I think the WBC is more important than the MLB season, just as the World Cup is more important than the Premier League. The PL is played every year and players get most of their money from their PL clubs, but those facts don't make the PL as joyous or as actually important as the Cup, It only makes them more financially important, and in the end, what are we here to watch: baseball, or moneymaking?

Like many soccer fans, I'm sure you feel a stronger loyalty to your league team than to a country's baseball federation, which is totally fine. I guess I'd just say that you're right to say it's not going anywhere, so making peace with it is the wisest course of action.

Also, my own bottom line for this piece: I think Zerpa will be COMPLETELY fine, and basically his full-strength self, very soon. Could be wrong but I don't even think his WBC participation is what's led to a wobbly start. I think it just happens.

[BarremlensTSSC]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I understand all of those feelings. I invite you to consider that, even though they're paid mostly by their MLB teams, players need not automatically allot all (or even most!) of their loyalty to those teams. I think the WBC is more important than the MLB season, just as the World Cup is more important than the Premier League. The PL is played every year and players get most of their money from their PL clubs, but those facts don't make the PL as joyous or as actually important as the Cup, It only makes them more financially important, and in the end, what are we here to watch: baseball, or moneymaking?

Like many soccer fans, I'm sure you feel a stronger loyalty to your league team than to a country's baseball federation, which is totally fine. I guess I'd just say that you're right to say it's not going anywhere, so making peace with it is the wisest course of action.

Also, my own bottom line for this piece: I think Zerpa will be COMPLETELY fine, and basically his full-strength self, very soon. Could be wrong but I don't even think his WBC participation is what's led to a wobbly start. I think it just happens.

I'll acknowledge the logic of most of that, although I think the World Cup/Soccer analogy breaks down because the World Cup, particularly for non-Europe based players, presents a significant opportunity to make money off the tournament itself (i.e. prize money and payments from FIFA through national federations) that are signficantly more than they are likely to receive in salary from regional leagues or even semi-pro leagues in some countries.  WBC is attempting to mimic that model, hopefully with less revenue loss due to FIFA's "administration" (i.e. corruption), but they aren't there at least not yet (there are other issues there too because of dual nationals taking up so much of the oxygen that semi-pro baseball players in other countries end up on the outside looking in a lot of times).

Beyond that, part of the FIFA World Cup is the opportunity to showcase skills and get attention from leagues that operate all over the planet, so even if they're playing for love of game/country and sheer competitive spirit, the opportunity for financial remuneration after the fact based on world cup play (i.e., play in Mexico, MLS, or even at various levels in Europe) is way more developed than it is for the WBC.  Part of that is just time, because the WBC is so young in its history.  But part of that is because the World Cup exists BECAUSE soccer (football) is a global sport.  The WBC exists because MLB wants baseball to become a global sport.  When it's not.  Not even close.

I'm not unaware how much many/all of the players who played in the WBC this year or in previous cycles love the chance to play for the crest/culture/country/teammates.  But I know an MLB owner money play when I see one and I'm sorry but I hate the fact that some of these players, especially relievers whose efficacy windows are often short and cyclical to begin with, will end up losing significant money if the injuries they suffer from quick ramp ups and inning loads end up being ill timed relative to their opportunities on the open market.  

I'm just not a fan of the WBC at all.  It's meaningless to me personally, but I'm likely in the minority on that (although I don't think I'm alone).  I also think the players aren't fairly compensated for their play, let alone their risk, not that that's new from MLB owners.

[Johnny Logan]

I'd rather have Isaac Collins back.

[Branyanisthegoat]

I have this wild theory that the sinker/slider pitcher should start throwing the occasional slider.

He is at 70% sinker, and that number is trending up, especially after he spammed them his last game. I noticed he kept shaking off William in that game, id love to know if he was shaking off sliders.

I still have faith, lots of wbc relievers are struggling, and sometimes it takes guys awhile to adjust to a new team.