After Taking Lumps in San Francisco, Brewers Have Clarity on Trade Deadline Needs

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of John Hefti-Imagn Images

Just as a team will sometimes rest their starting catcher on the day before an off day, the Brewers chose an opportune moment to push back Shane Drohan in the team's starting rotation. Drohan will get two extra days between outings this way, after Milwaukee called up Thomas Pannone to make a spot start Wednesday. The team will have an off day in Los Angeles Thursday before starting a weekend series with the Angels in Anaheim on Friday, and the bump gives Drohan and all of the team's other starters some breathing room. This is the massaging of workloads they've talked about all year. This is the luxury afforded to a team on pace for 100 wins and an easy division title, even after an ugly loss Wednesday.

However, that loss did end up exposing some real cracks in the team's foundation for success. Pannone was serviceable, but Pat Murphy treated the outing more like the first phase of a bullpen game than like a true spot start, pulling the peripatetic lefty after just 56 pitches and three innings of three-run ball. At Triple-A Nashville, Pannone had made eight straight appearances with at least 80 pitches thrown and had gotten at least 16 outs in the last four. He was working on seven days' rest. Though the game might have gotten away from Milwaukee in the middle innings if Pannone had been left in a while, that option was available. Murphy, with his steadfast belief in trying to win every game, eschewed it.

That meant calling upon Chad Patrick to pitch the fourth and fifth, and to start the sixth. He survived the first two of those frames without allowing a run, and the Brewers chipped away at the Giants' lead in the meantime. When the bottom of the sixth began, it was 3-2 in favor of the home side. Patrick, however, wasn't fooling San Francisco at all. The Giants only swung at 18 of his 47 pitches, and didn't whiff even once in those 18 tries. Patrick has been working through mechanical issues lately, and he's not the same weapon the team often enjoyed when he was assigned to the bullpen late last year. In the sixth, he ran out of ways to gut it out, and left without getting an out.

Trying to throw a hat on a firehose, Murphy turned to Aaron Ashby, Somewhat like Patrick, Ashby is showing signs of wearing and buckling under heavy use recently, and Wednesday became the latest and most glaring example. Ashby faced six batters, threw 24 pitches, recorded one out, and left the game in the care of Bryse Wilson—a sure sign that the horses were out of the barn.

Uncharacteristically sloppy defense behind them hurt the Brewers hurlers, but the day was a reminder that the team has real needs to address before Monday's trade deadline, even if they're less urgent than those of some of their rivals. Another starting pitcher would be a huge addition; it would obviate things like Wednesday's Pannone start. The team doesn't want to overexpose its young and inexperienced arms, but to shield them from overuse, they need to have good alternatives to whom to turn. The game also underscored the need for at least one reliever, to bolster a bullpen with similar problems to the starting staff's: a lot of guys nearing workload thresholds beyond which they're likely to become less effective.

It's easy to forget, because the team never plays quite as deep into October as fans would like, but the Brewers have extra taxes to pay the pitching gods because of the extra innings they must throw each fall. Their season goes anywhere from one to three weeks past the end of the regular campaign, which means a few extra miles on the odometer of any pitcher whom they keep around for multiple seasons and a few fewer days to rest before spring training rolls back around. Ashby and Patrick are in that situation; so are Abner Uribe and Jacob Misiorowski. Turnover is needed; so is reinforcement. The Brewers entered spring training with so much pitching depth it felt almost redundant, but they need to make multiple additions over the next four days to ensure that they won't peter out in the NLCS again this time. Ashby and Patrick can still be superb pitchers in the roles Murphy has carved out for them, but they need a bit of a break, just as Drohan and the other starters on the staff do. Unless and until more talent pours through the door, it's harder to find those breaks for the team's vital relievers.

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[Brian]

Aaron Ashby pitches ONE or less innings and his ERA the past month is 6.75 totally unacceptable for a playoff team.  He has been detrimental to the Brewers the past month or more.  

I would be 100% in favor of moving Ashby in a deal involving another pitcher. Every year it is the same crap with Ashby at the playoff push.  Either he can't handle the pressure or his arm can't withstand a full season. Either way, I am sick of him and his inconsistency.  It's a 50/50 shot we win/lose if he is called on with a Brewer lead in the late innings. 

[keephopealive]

It wasn't the pitching that petered out last year in the playoffs. It was the offense. A 3.71 ERA against the Dodgers isn't horrible. Scoring one run in each game doomed us. 

[Brian]

27 minutes ago, keephopealive said:

It wasn't the pitching that petered out last year in the playoffs. It was the offense. A 3.71 ERA against the Dodgers isn't horrible. Scoring one run in each game doomed us. 

That was last year, I think we just pooped out last season.

Brewers fought way to hard to get the bye last year and then the layoff just killed us.  If the bye happens, it happens.  I wouldn't push the peddle to the floorboard to get the bye this year that's for sure. Hope we learned our lesson. 

[Trail]

Ashby gets used to death.  He wants it that way, but sometimes Murph and Hook need to be the adults in the room.  

Some help is on the way.  Hall will be back very soon and I think Wagoner is going to get a call in a couple of weeks.  That's not a fix-all, but that would be a lot of added depth.  I see Wagoner as a useful 6th or 7th inning option.  Hopefully he gets his shot.  Also...if the Brewers pick up a starter before the deadline, one of the current starters....probably Sproat, will add additional depth.  I'm not as concerned as some.  

[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, Brian said:

Aaron Ashby pitches ONE or less innings and his ERA the past month is 6.75 totally unacceptable for a playoff team.  He has been detrimental to the Brewers the past month or more.  

I would be 100% in favor of moving Ashby in a deal involving another pitcher. Every year it is the same crap with Ashby at the playoff push.  Either he can't handle the pressure or his arm can't withstand a full season. Either way, I am sick of him and his inconsistency.  It's a 50/50 shot we win/lose if he is called on with a Brewer lead in the late innings. 

Using ERA in a small sample for a reliever is not the best way to talk about consistency. Yes, when you are charged with 4 runs in 0.1 innings like Ashby was yesterday and you pitch like 12 innings in a month, it's going to look terrible. You are in better standing if you want to argue that his June was not great, but from a consistency standpoint, July was actually really good:

He had 2 bad outings in the month. If your baseline is 0, you're going to be disappointed unless it's Mason Miller.

[izzi]

Regardless of how well we've played this year, the team isn't ready to go all-in. We've been playing above our talent level. To sell the farm to bolster a bunch of overachievers would be unwise. 

Be patient. Stay the course. There's another wave of talent coming soon. 2027 and beyond is when the window really opens up. 

Don't sacrifice said talent to try and win a championship when we're not quite ready.

[biedergb]

I think every pitcher who is effective gets "over used".  Starters get "over-used" pitching 5-7 innings per start if they are effective. And good reliever too.

There are two sides to that - one is the overuse, which is real and even I acknowledge that now (growing up int he 80s I was of that old school "why do players need days off" mentality until a year or 2 ago).

The other is hitters have more chance to see the stuff in person or on video, so they get to guess on tendencies the more you pitch.

So we need to keep pitching these guys, but balance it out.

And the offense is a big factor.  If this was a 5-3 lead as opposed to a 3-1 deficit Pannone maybe goes longer. Not blaming the offense here, but the game is a team sport.

With all that said, the trade deadline NEEDS are 1. a starting pitcher; 2. at least one high leverage reliever for the 7-8th inning; and 3. one bat who can play 3B or OF, preferably a RHH who can mash LHP.

Now we will likely try to get one and get a few players who could hopefully fill in the other categories.  But I also contend that the team this year as a team is great, but there is not stand out (like Yeli/Braun/Cain in 2018/2019; or Burnes/Peralta/Woody in 2021). Similar to last year, it is a whole team effort, and I wonder if one player or two really moves that needle a lot to "go all in", so while the records is what the records is, the Brewers are one of the top 3-4 teams in the league, I guess I don't feel or see this as a true top 4 team, so I'm not in favor of giving up a lot, especially with the unknown of 2027.

[Brian]

1 hour ago, Team Canada said:

Using ERA in a small sample for a reliever is not the best way to talk about consistency. Yes, when you are charged with 4 runs in 0.1 innings like Ashby was yesterday and you pitch like 12 innings in a month, it's going to look terrible. You are in better standing if you want to argue that his June was not great, but from a consistency standpoint, July was actually really good:

He had 2 bad outings in the month. If your baseline is 0, you're going to be disappointed unless it's Mason Miller.

So basically your saying Mason Miller is the only guy available better than Ashby when Ashby pitches about 1 inning every other game and has: 

2026 Pitching Breakdown

• Total Runs Allowed (R): 31

• Earned Runs Allowed (ER): 26

• Unearned Runs (R - ER): 5

• Innings Pitched (IP): 60.2

• Appearances / Games Pitched: 51 
• At 8.7 mil/yr 2027. 

[Samurai Bucky]

I have noticed that pitchers such as Ashby, Megill, or back when Devon Williams was pitching for the Brewers, they were less reliable pitching on the second day of back-to-back games.  I don't know if Ashby warms up differently in the bullpen that causes him to be less reliable on the second day.  It also depends on how they are told to warm up.  There could be "get loose," "start getting warm," and "get hot."  They are all contributing factors.

Even so, Ashby can be lights out, but when he falls, he falls hard.

[Team Canada]

11 hours ago, Brian said:

So basically your saying Mason Miller is the only guy available better than Ashby when Ashby pitches about 1 inning every other game and has: 

2026 Pitching Breakdown

• Total Runs Allowed (R): 31

• Earned Runs Allowed (ER): 26

• Unearned Runs (R - ER): 5

• Innings Pitched (IP): 60.2

• Appearances / Games Pitched: 51 
• At 8.7 mil/yr 2027. 

You said Ashby had a terrible month of July. I pointed out reasons why I don't think that's correct and that if you're disappointed when a reliever has two bad outings in a month then you may have unrealistic expectations.

[Brian]

14 hours ago, Team Canada said:

You said Ashby had a terrible month of July. I pointed out reasons why I don't think that's correct and that if you're disappointed when a reliever has two bad outings in a month then you may have unrealistic expectations.

OK, 31 walks, 31 runs allowed in 60.2 innings sure seems like a lot of walks/runs to me for a reliever who usually only pitches 1 inning per outing and has a 3.86 ERA in 2026 season. "Nothing to write home about", an ordinary reliever at best.