Kyle Harrison and the Brewers Are Running Out of Time

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Kyle Harrison is effectively out of the Brewers' postseason rotation mix, and he probably has been for nearly two weeks. He made his last traditional start on September 6, after which the Brewers pivoted to a different approach for getting him back on track. The hope was that more side work and pitching out of the bullpen could reset Harrison, who needed to prove that he was postseason-ready in any capacity.

Harrison appeared in relief last Saturday against the Reds, then made a truncated start on Thursday against the Pirates after the Brewers clinched the NL Central. His fastball velocity ticked back up, averaging north of 95 miles per hour in both outings after dipping to 93.6 MPH since his return from the injured list. Unfortunately, it also lost some of the movement that made it great.

For the season, Harrison's fastball averaged 14.7 inches of induced vertical break. That number measures how much less his ball drops on its way to home plate due to backspin, which the hitter perceives as the "rise" that makes a fastball difficult to get on top of up in the zone. It was down to 13.9 inches in his relief appearance and 13.8 inches on Thursday.

Both outings went poorly. Harrison failed to record an out against the Reds, while allowing four hits, including two hard-hit balls on fastballs. Against the Pirates, he couldn't get out of the second inning and induced just one whiff with his heater. The most telling at-bats were Konnor Griffin doubling on an inside 97-MPH fastball and Oneil Cruz singling on a 96-MPH fastball at the top of the zone, both with two strikes. Both were well-located pitches that once produced near-automatic outs for Harrison, but because his fastball lacked its usual carry, they were hittable.

While Chris Hook and company have been working hard with Harrison to rediscover that livelier fastball, they also seem to be preparing for life without it. They've slid him even further toward the first-base edge of the rubber than they did at the start of the year, perhaps hoping to give Harrison's fastball an even more extreme angle across the zone for more deception.

They're also emphasizing his secondaries more. Harrison has thrown his fastball less than 50% of the time in just three outings this year. Two of those times were in his last three outings, including Thursday's start. His slurve (which has typically had a big, loopy shape and only serves to get early swings when hitters sit on the fastball) has been slightly shorter in these last two outings. Harrison also threw his first cutter of the season on Thursday.

Needing the secondaries to rescue his diminished fastball contributed to Harrison's downfall. He threw just 33% of his breaking balls and 14% of his changeups in the zone. After Cruz's single, he hit Bryan Reynolds with a changeup, then walked Rafael Flores Jr. and hit Brandon Lowe, both on slurves. Neither has been an in-zone pitch for Harrison all year, so asking them to fill that role now won't work.

Reintroducing the cutter is also alarming. Because his hand struggles to work around the ball from his low arm slot, Harrison's cutter was a poor pitch last year. The Brewers scrapped it in spring training, knowing it was unnecessary if they could maximize his fastball. Reversing course suggests neither Harrison nor his coaches believe his heater is still good enough to be his only in-zone pitch.

Pat Murphy said after Harrison's outing that the Brewers will give him more opportunities to get right. Whether he starts another game or pitches out of the bullpen has yet to be determined.

It's the right call. While the Brewers have not yet secured baseball's top postseason seed, they have a six-game lead over Atlanta for a first-round bye. There's not much to lose compared to the upside of getting Harrison right, and if things click, it might not take much to prove he's back to form.

The space between success and failure is thin for any pitcher, but it's especially thin for Harrison. At his best, he backspins his fastball with conviction and leans on it heavily. A small mechanical flaw can quickly turn that fastball from elite to average, and when that happens, the rest of his arsenal doesn't hold up. When mechanical issues have hurt Jacob Misiorowski's fastball, he's fallen back on a cutter and two great breaking balls. Harrison could be less out of whack than Misiorowski, but his effectiveness would suffer more.

Harrison's velocity has increased while his movement has decreased, suggesting he's not generating that velocity correctly. He might be trying too hard to artificially create energy in his delivery by moving quickly, rather than creating it efficiently from the ground up.

Metrically, Harrison's extension in September is the lowest it's been since April. More notably, his release height has increased by several inches, even though his arm slot has been no higher than his season average.

Harrison has drop-and-drive mechanics, meaning he lowers his weight into his back leg before pushing off the rubber toward home plate. A higher release point suggests he's not dropping enough. Both stills below are taken from the final frame before Harrison starts driving forward. The left still is from late May, and the right is from his relief appearance against the Reds. On the left, Harrison is a bit less upright and slightly further into that back leg.

On the right, Harrison is also moving quicker, and his stride is slightly less crossfire. The earlier delivery was free and easy, but the newer version looks more exaggerated, as if Harrison is trying too hard to move like his best self. The parts that should have more movement to create torque have become shorter.

Those small differences could explain the change to his fastball shape. To backspin his fastball, Harrison's hand must be directly behind the baseball at release and work through it. That's what creates the pitch's carry. If his arm drags behind through that sped-up delivery, his hand will have a harder time reaching that position.

On Thursday, Harrison worked exclusively out of the stretch. He came set more closed off with his hands further down toward his belt, adjustments that he told reporters were geared toward recapturing some of that crossfire stride.

Those changes didn't work. Harrison needs something to click mechanically that syncs up his body so he can backspin the ball with velocity. If that happens, his early-season dominance will return as quickly as it left. The Brewers know that he's still just one or two good outings away from meriting a spot in their playoff bullpen. Time is running out, though, and with each attempted adjustment, Harrison risks drifting further away from what made him one of baseball's best pitchers in the first half.

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[keephopealive]

Not an expert, but it looks to me like they may have been over adjusting.