The Would-Be Hero, the Hidden Goat: Brewers' Game 4 Loss Swung Wildly on Two Late Plays

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Rays don't seem to have any idea how to get Cooper Pratt out. You can see that in his stat line during this World Series: he's 6-for-16 with three extra-base hits and three walks. You can also see it in the at-bats, though. Tuesday night nearly became the sublime moment that altered the Brewers' identity as a franchise for the better, and it was Pratt who stood to become the hero of that contest. Over and over, he delivered the big hit, as he's done all series. He finished off the Rays in Game 2 with an opposite-field single. In Game 4, they tried to jam him up and in, and he was extremely ready for it. 

Pratt's steep swing produces a style of zone coverage that might surprise you, if all you knew was how much he dips his barrel as he addresses the ball. Many hitters with a steep bat path like the ball down and in, but Pratt prefers to keep his swing short and direct. That means focusing on attacking the ball up and in and adjusting to cover down and away; it often means that you can beat him down and in. The Rays, sometimes trying to set him up for something else and sometimes simply thinking they had a pitch type that would beat him in a given spot, repeatedly tried to get the ball by him in the upper, inner quadrant of the zone, but Pratt punished that strategy.

Pratt's game-tying double in the fourth inning came on a near-perfect pitch from Griffin Jax, in terms of execution. It just wasn't a good plan on the Rays' part—a rare miss for a team that usually nails scouting and gameplanning. Pratt also cracked a pair of solid singles, but the defining moment for him—the biggest moment in Brewers history, it briefly seemed, though that wouldn't last—came when Ian Seymour tried a fairly inexplicable offering. His 12th-inning sweeper broke toward Pratt, but stayed above the belt, and Pratt got to it before it could break far enough in to jam him. If it were a misplaced would-be back-foot breakiung ball, you could understand it, but the Rays seemed to want the pitch in that spot. They underestimated Pratt, and paid a dear price.

The celebration that homer nearly touched off will have to wait, at least one day. The game got away from the Brewers in the bottom of the 12th. In the scorebook (and in his own heart; he beat himself up in interviews after the game), Joey Ortiz will wear the goat horns. Officially, he committed a throwing error on the first at-bat of the Rays' comeback rally. In truth, though, he made a fine play. Jake Bauers had time and a reliable hop on which to catch Ortiz's long throw. The ball didn't skip unpredictably off the turf; Ortiz got it to the dirt cutout around the base. It came up to about waist height and didn't pull Bauers off the bag. The veteran first baseman just needed to field the bounce. Instead, alas, he was handcuffed by it.

Unfortunately, this was as foreseeable as Pratt's success on pitches up and in—but it's not the kind of thing a team can adequately plan for and avoid. On August 19, I wrote the following about Bauers's receiving of low and bounced throws, relative to Andrew Vaughn's good work on the same types of plays.

Quote

Alas, that's exactly where Jake Bauers struggles. The Brewers' bigger, more athletic, left-handed first baseman would rate as above-average, but for a few poor plays on which he's crouched awkwardly and unnecessarily when trying to pick low throws, with disastrous results.

Here's an example I gave at the time:

It's an unfortunate habit of Bauers's to get too low too early on throws that will bounce before arriving, leaving him unable to make late adjustments other first basemen might. He's been a fine receiver on all other types of throws, but this was the gun over the mantelpiece all along, and it fired at just the wrong time for the Brewers. In theory, when an unlucky ninth-inning sequence forced the Brewers to replace David Hamilton with Ortiz, Pat Murphy could have put Vaughn (who'd been called upon to pinch-hit but didn't really get the chance) into the game at first base, taking out Bauers. Murphy also could have elected to let Hamilton hit in that spot, instead of turning to Vaughn.

If Vaughn is there to field Ortiz's throw, the Brewers are probably champions already. That would have required a near-magical level of foresight from Murphy, though. If Hamilton were still in the game, on that particular play, the Brewers probably get an out, but Murphy has plenty of reasons to prefer Ortiz to Hamilton at third defensively, as Hamilton himself had showed earlier in the game.

No one is exactly at fault. As we talked about after the Brewers' Game 1 win, the World Series (and the playoffs, in general) will eventually find and expose your weaknesses. The Brewers' weaknesses are few and minor, compared to those of most teams, but the game found a way to shed light on one at a pivotal moment Tuesday night.

That needn't be the defining moment of the series, though, just as Pratt's didn't turn out to be. The Brewers have a bevy of advantages heading into Game 5. Emotionally, they'll have to respond. They'll have to ignore the wamble in their gut and the ringing in their ears and come back undeterred—or, as Murphy liked to ask of them in previous years, undaunted. History is obdurate. The Brewers have never won a World Series, and the universe sometimes seems to be trying its hardest to keep it that way. This team is too good to be dragged down by something as simple and foreseeable as extra-innings adversity, though. If they play the same game Wednesday night that they played Tuesday, they can expect to win it this time—warts and all.

Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

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[OneangryBadger]

I agree with most of what you wrote except that if Hamilton was in the game they probably have an out. Hi arm is not strong enough to make that play that deep down the line and away from 1B. Ortiz was the guy you want at 3B in that spot. 

The bigger issue was Bauer's play at 1B. Anyone that has played 1B with any skill would tell you that throw was on the 1B too make. Bauers simply didn’t come up with the ball in the biggest moment in franchise history to date. He will have more chances to make up for it. There is a lot of series left. 

Bigger questions about having Harrison and Drohan on the roster instead of Patrick and possible Anderson or someone else is a debate for another day. I think carrying a reliver you don’t trust pitch and another who has had arm injuries by your admission was probably a mistake in hinesight

[Matthew Trueblood]

21 minutes ago, OneangryBadger said:

I agree with most of what you wrote except that if Hamilton was in the game they probably have an out. Hi arm is not strong enough to make that play that deep down the line and away from 1B. Ortiz was the guy you want at 3B in that spot. 

The bigger issue was Bauer's play at 1B. Anyone that has played 1B with any skill would tell you that throw was on the 1B too make. Bauers simply didn’t come up with the ball in the biggest moment in franchise history to date. He will have more chances to make up for it. There is a lot of series left. 

Bigger questions about having Harrison and Drohan on the roster instead of Patrick and possible Anderson or someone else is a debate for another day. I think carrying a reliver you don’t trust pitch and another who has had arm injuries by your admission was probably a mistake in hinesight

We agree on the important part, then. FWIW: People say this A LOT about Hamilton and Ortiz, and it's just not true! Statistically, Hamilton throws harder, and I'll also tell you that scouts in other orgs and the Brewers' own internal system both rate Hamilton's arm as stronger than Ortiz's. I'm not beefing with you, specifically, at all. There's a near-consensus among fans on this, the belief that Ortiz has the better arm. It's not true though! 

[Team Canada]

That's interesting. It seems like Hamilton is at least far less accurate, at least in recent memory.

[Randall Buchek]

5 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

We agree on the important part, then. FWIW: People say this A LOT about Hamilton and Ortiz, and it's just not true! Statistically, Hamilton throws harder, and I'll also tell you that scouts in other orgs and the Brewers' own internal system both rate Hamilton's arm as stronger than Ortiz's. I'm not beefing with you, specifically, at all. There's a near-consensus among fans on this, the belief that Ortiz has the better arm. It's not true though! 

 

5 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

We agree on the important part, then. FWIW: People say this A LOT about Hamilton and Ortiz, and it's just not true! Statistically, Hamilton throws harder, and I'll also tell you that scouts in other orgs and the Brewers' own internal system both rate Hamilton's arm as stronger than Ortiz's. I'm not beefing with you, specifically, at all. There's a near-consensus among fans on this, the belief that Ortiz has the better arm. It's not true though! 

That is all true.  But what the Brewers need is for Bauers and Turang's bat to get going.  Bauers has no RBI's and Turang has two. No clutch hits from Bauers at all.  The Brewers left 8 men on base Tuesday night.

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 minutes ago, Randall Buchek said:

 

That is all true.  But what the Brewers need is for Bauers and Turang's bat to get going.  Bauers has no RBI's and Turang has two. No clutch hits from Bauers at all.  The Brewers left 8 men on base Tuesday night.

No doubt. It's hard, man. At times, the Brewers have made it look otherwise, but the Rays have a good pitching staff. They specialize in changeups; changeups can be hard on the bat paths and in the platoon matchups Bauers and Turang have had this week. Maybe the breakthrough comes tonight. Bauers, especially, has had some better process than results. Crushed a couple balls last night; no joy.

[RWeeksFan23]

6 hours ago, OneangryBadger said:

I agree with most of what you wrote except that if Hamilton was in the game they probably have an out. Hi arm is not strong enough to make that play that deep down the line and away from 1B. Ortiz was the guy you want at 3B in that spot. 

The bigger issue was Bauer's play at 1B. Anyone that has played 1B with any skill would tell you that throw was on the 1B too make. Bauers simply didn’t come up with the ball in the biggest moment in franchise history to date. He will have more chances to make up for it. There is a lot of series left. 

Bigger questions about having Harrison and Drohan on the roster instead of Patrick and possible Anderson or someone else is a debate for another day. I think carrying a reliver you don’t trust pitch and another who has had arm injuries by your admission was probably a mistake in hinesight

okay but how can you trust Patrick? The guy had multiple outings to close the regular season where he couldn't find the strike zone. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

okay but how can you trust Patrick? The guy had multiple outings to close the regular season where he couldn't find the strike zone. 

I can make a case that they maybe should trust Harrison OR Patrick, at least a little, but I agree it's pretty clear they trust neither, so the choice some are posing between carrying Harrison and then not using him vs. carrying Patrick is probably a false one. Neither guy was ever gonna be on that mound to close it out. Really, and Murph said this afterward, they were on Plan D already. It was never designed to be a night when they'd win in 12 innings. 

[Randall Buchek]

2 hours ago, Randall Buchek said:

 

That is all true.  But what the Brewers need is for Bauers and Turang's bat to get going.  Bauers has no RBI's and Turang has two. No clutch hits from Bauers at all.  The Brewers left 8 men on base Tuesday night.

Debating whether it was Ortiz's fault for the bad throw or Hamilton would have made that throw, shouldn't Bauers have scooped that throw up?  The throw wasn't wide to Bauers.  Pretty much like a ball hit to Bauers from the batter.  He is a first baseman by trade.  Prince could scoop those throws up, not all the time of course.

One other question, it has nothing to do with the throw to first.  I forget who the runner was for Tampa, I know that base running isn't reviewable.  But the runner going from second to third, Hamilton tried to tag him and missed.  What umpire should have caught that the runner was out of the baseline?

[Matthew Trueblood]

12 minutes ago, Randall Buchek said:

Debating whether it was Ortiz's fault for the bad throw or Hamilton would have made that throw, shouldn't Bauers have scooped that throw up?  The throw wasn't wide to Bauers.  Pretty much like a ball hit to Bauers from the batter.  He is a first baseman by trade.  Prince could scoop those throws up, not all the time of course.

One other question, it has nothing to do with the throw to first.  I forget who the runner was for Tampa, I know that base running isn't reviewable.  But the runner going from second to third, Hamilton tried to tag him and missed.  What umpire should have caught that the runner was out of the baseline?

Scroll up, Randall. A big chunk of the article is *about* the fact that Bauers should have picked it.