Bottom of ninth, bases loaded, nobody out (changed), down by two. Are you favored to win?

[brewcrewreview]

I was looking at the MLB scoreboard on my phone tonight. They just installed a new feature saying what team is favored to win and by what percentage at that point of the ballgame. I looked when the Rockies were down by two with nobody out (at first I wrote one out, but there were nobody out) and the bases loaded.

I understand a lot depends on who's pitching and hitting at the time, but generally speaking, who do you think is favored to win and by what percentage, the team that's up or the team that's batting with the bases loaded? I'll give the answer to this thread sometime Sunday night.

[bjkrautk]

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html

 

TangoTiger says that, on average, a team will score 1.65 runs in that situation.

 

That's not terribly far from 2 runs (probably within a standard deviation, were I to actually do the math). I'm guessing the team at the plate would win about 30% of the time.

[DougJones43]

I was just looking, and the Rockies didn't have any outs when they were down by 2 with the bases loaded. The first out of the inning was made after the game was tied. So, in that situation (bases loaded, no out, down 2), the Rockies probably had right around a 50% chance to win the game.

[endaround]

Given they were also the home team which is favored slightly when tied, they probably a little better than 50%.

[brewcrewreview]

Oh man, my fault. There were no outs in that situation when I looked. So the home team has bases loaded, NOBODY out, down by two, who's favored to win and by what percentage?

[rluzinski]

Here is how the home team has faired in that situation, since 1977:

 

Expectancy: 0.464, 69 games, home team won: 32 times

 

They've won about 46% of the time. Only 69 games in the sample, though, so I'd take that percentage with a grain of salt.

 

Looking at run frequency:

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902score.html

 

Bases loaded and no out, from 99-02, teams scored over 2 runs about 40% of the time and exactly 2 runs, 21% of the time. The home team wins tied, extra innings games about 52% if the time, so the probability of the home team winning in the above scenario is:

 

40% + .52 x 21% = 51%

 

Run frequency assumes an average pitcher but down in the 9th, the home team often has to face the closer, which is generally an above average pitcher. I'd adjust that 51% down a bit to compensate.

 

 

(edit: added text to long link --1992)

[DougJones43]

Fan Graphs has the playlogs up from last night's game, and for what it's worth, the Rockies were listed as having a 50.9% chance to win the game when Torrealba came up to bat with the bases loaded and nobody out.