ben sheets in 2008--doug melvin's toughest decision ever?

[ozzybourne]

if ben sheets stays healthy this year (it is a contract year) and has a great year-say 18 wins or so-and the brewers go into the playoffs-say to the league championship, do you just let him walk for the draft picks, or do you belly up to the bar as an mlb organization?

 

a little history on sheets. i had to look it up because i forgot that he actually used to be healthy. in 2002, 2003, 2004 he averaged 225 innings per year with 34 starts per year. his career year statistically was 2004. the last 3 years he has averaged 21 starts and about 130 innings.

 

he appears set to be the ace coming in this year, and unless the brewers are out of the race by trading deadline, he is here for the year. so what should melvin do if sheets stays healthy, and the brewers make the playoffs? should a career healthy year by sheets earn him an extended stay with the brewers?

[Fatter than Joey]

If Sheets has another year like he did in 2004 -- I would have no problem with DM signing him. I feel the same way about Sheets as I did about Cordero -- he's a great pitcher -- but someone will offer him more than we can reasonably pay.

[logan82]

Fatter than Joey wrote:

I feel the same way about Sheets as I did about Cordero -- he's a great pitcher -- but someone will

offer him more than we can reasonably pay.

The key word being reasonable. We just can't afford to give Sheets market value if he has a good year. Even if he has a bad year I think he will still get a pretty good contract. I wouldn't count on a hometown discount either. I actually would be dissapointed in Sheets if he took a hometown discount. Players have finite careers so they have to get as much money as they can, when they can.

[endaround]

Sheets would easily take a hometown discount, just likely not a huge one. And unlike say Oswalt he'd be signing up with a team that actually has a chance to win in the next few years.

[JJHardy7]

Sheets would easily take a hometown discount, just likely not a huge one. And unlike say Oswalt he'd be signing up with a team that actually has a chance to win in the next few years.

 

How do we know he'll take a hometown discount?

[endaround]

He owns the Admirals!

[DrWood]

the brewers need for sheets past 2008 will be determined by how well he and the other starters perform.

[bigredrobbo]

He owns the Admirals!

 

And Mark Attanasio owns the Brewers, but he lives somewhere else.

 

All the Admirals thing guarantees is that Ben will get a game with them, if he chooses!

 

Regardless of what happens, I think this is Sheets last season here. Players just seem to love that open market testing deal they have going on...

[JohnBriggs12]

Sheets' age at the close of the seasons he exceeded 200 innings: 24, 25, 26.

 

Sheets' age at the close of the seasons of his next contract (assuming he signs for 4 years): 31, 32, 33, 34

 

If his recent history isn't a red flag, those numbers are.

 

With the quantity of core players the Brewers will have to give big dollars to from 09 through 12, it's not economically feasible to pay Sheets too.

[hauser42]

I did not know owning a small part of a minor league hockey team ment that you give your main employer a hometown discount. With that logic maybe he will give some of the money he got while he was hurt the last three years.

 

Sheets only chance of getting another contract from the Brewers if he goes through this season healthy and putting up top end stats, then the Brewers will be more than tempted to fork over some money to him. If he doesn't do that DM has to make a huge effort to move him while he still has value and more injuries dont mount on his resume. I see Mark A more than willing to pay his top players, I know I'm in the minority but he has gone on record saying he wants a winner and certain players will have to be paid if he is true to his word.

[JohnBriggs12]

White Sox are a good bet for Sheets. You read it here first.

 

The AL suits him better. Williams is aggressive. Admirals not far away.

[ozzybourne]

White Sox are a good bet for Sheets. You read it here first.

 

The AL suits him better. Williams is aggressive. Admirals not far away.

interesting- almost beckett like. and he wont have to hit.

[homer]

I'm fairly certain End was being sarcastic.

[BrewCrewForever]

If he his healthy all year, that means he probably pitches the way we all know he can. Thus you sign him to an extension, pony up the cash Mark!

[NYChez]

It's definitely Melvin's decision.

 

If Melvin thinks the Brewers should sign Sheets, is there anyone out there that doubts that Mark A will sign him?

 

I tend to think that Mark A is tempted to think short-term but he realizes that Melvin is the voice of reason, and he will totally defer to Melvin.

[apirk]

I would love to have the Brewers keep Sheets, but everytime I say that I feel like a Cubs fan. I remember how much fun I've made of them for keeping their forever injured pitchers and hoping they'd stay healthy but they never did.

[RobDeer 45]

No matter what happens I don't think we will get Sheets back. If he is hurt again this year we may offer him something but there will be a team out there that will take a risk on him and over pay him. We may just let him go too if his injuries continue. If he has a good season we'll give him a good offer but like you guys said, it will be like Cordero, someone will go higher and it's not worth it for us to chase those numbers. It will just handcuff us in the future with our young talent. I'd like to see him stay but I just don't see it in the cards.

[Brewguru2]

I think the Brewers have prepared for Sheets departure for the last 2 years.

 

After all, Suppan's real big money doesn't kick in until 2009.

[JJHardy7]

I have a feeling the decision on Sheets has already been made by the Brewers. Now exactly what that is I have no clue. Sheets hasn't been able to stay healthy and he could do that again this year or stay healthy and have a big year.

 

I think the biggest factor in Sheets (taking out the injuries) is what the Brewers long-term plan is with their young players. Do they think they can keep Braun or Fielder (or at least buy a year or two of free agency)? If the plan is to let those guys walk and get picks or trade them, I think that increases the Brewers' chance of signing Sheets (when taking injuries out). I'm not only talking Braun and Fielder, but the rest of the young guys. It's a difficult spot to be in forecasting the future, but it comes with winning and building a young team. Tough decisions are part of the job and we're looking at real talent now and not hoping a nugget comes through.

[DrWood]

I think the Brewers have prepared for Sheets departure for the last 2 years.

 

After all, Suppan's real big money doesn't kick in until 2009.

that is more of a preparation to move Suppan when his no-trade clause ends.

[RU Rah Rah]

Another way of looking at it is to imagine how competitive the Brewers would be without Sheets in the fold. I honestly think that they would do ok, especially if they could plow the savings from his sure-to-be-bloated contract into a competent arm (or even two).

 

If it's 2004 redux this year, I don't think DM is going to have to worry anyway. The price tag will be off the charts.

[Oldcity]

I think end is right on in that it could be similar to Oswalt. He definitely took a hometown discount. He also got it worked out during the season. In Sheets' case, extending him during the season would be a bit of a gamble since he hasn't thrown 200 innings in a few years. My main concern with him isn't so much whether he stays healthy all year (he hasn't had any serious injuries that caused him to miss time), but whether his numbers remain stellar. He was down just a bit last year from previous years.

 

If he pitches to the All-Star Break with traditional Sheets-like k/bb rates and such, I'd definitely make a move to get a deal done during the year.