Our Annual Preview - Which Brewers Farmhands Qualify for December's Rule 5 Draft?

By mid-November (the afternoon of Tuesday November 11th, we believe), teams across MLB will have to set their 40-man rosters in order to identify which minor league players they wish to protect from exposure to the Rule 5 draft in December. Last November saw the Brewers add RHP's Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick while not adding RHP Shane Smith, subsequently claimed by the White Sox with the first pick in the draft. Clearly, each of those decisions had implications on the 2025 campaign. Unlike November 2023, the Brewers did not make any November 2024 trades for a Rule 5 eligible player, as they did then, giving up OF Hendry Mendez and INF Robert Moore for INF Oliver Dunn, who was immediately added to the team's 40-man at the time.

Who is most likely to be added this November, if anyone at all?

Quick primer thanks to MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince:

What is the Rule 5 Draft?

A draft that allows clubs that do not have a full 40-man roster to select certain non-40-man players from other organizations. Essentially, it is an avenue for teams to identify and give a Major League opportunity to players that they feel have been held back elsewhere.

Players signed at age 18 or younger must be added to their club’s 40-man roster within five seasons or else become eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Players signed at 19 or older must be protected within four seasons.

Like the amateur Draft (officially known as the Rule 4 Draft), the Rule 5 Draft is held in reverse order of standings from the previous season. Unlike the amateur Draft, not every club will make a selection in the Rule 5. Those that do must pay $100,000 to the club from which the player was selected, and the player must remain on the new club’s 26-man roster (or injured list) for the entirety of the following season or else be placed on outright waivers. If the player clears waivers, he must be offered back to his original team for $50,000 and can be outrighted to the Minors only if his original team does not take him back. (This prevents teams from pilfering players from other teams and then stashing them in their Minor League system.)

When is the Rule 5 Draft?

This winter’s Rule 5 Draft will be held Wednesday Dec. 10th.

There are 36 names on the eligible list this year, and it doesn't appear the Brewers will need to spend too much energy nor gnashing of teeth in the analysis (though certainly they'll be thorough).

* = First Time as Rule 5 Eligible

AAA Nashville:

• RHP Will Childers*
• RHP Blake Holub
• INF Freddy Zamora

AA Biloxi:

• INF Eric Brown, Jr.*
• LHP Brandon Knarr
• LHP Brian Fitzpatrick*
• RHP Nick Merkel*
• RHP Ryan Middendorf*
• INF Ethan Murray
• LHP Nate Peterson*
• LHP Russell Smith
• OF Garrett Spain
• UTIL Jheremy Vargas
• INF Zavier Warren
• C Matt Wood*

High-A Wisconsin:

• RHP Patricio Aquino*
• INF Jadher Areinamo*
• OF Luis Castillo*
• RHP Stiven Cruz
• C Blayberg Diaz
• INF Daniel Guilarte*
• 1B/OF Tayden Hall*
• RHP Aidan Maldonado*
• OF/INF Kaylan Nicasia
• OF Hedbert Perez
• RHP Yerlin Rodriguez
• RHP Will Rudy*
• RHP Cameron Wagoner*

A-Ball Carolina:

• RHP Quinton Low*
• C Eric Martinez*
• C Edgardo Ordonez*
• LHP Anfernny Reyes*
• RHP Dikember Sanchez*
• LHP Caden Vire*

Rookie Maryvale:

• OF Demetrio Nadal*
• RHP Alexander Vallecillo*

Don't confuse the players on this list with the names here: "The Brewers Farmhands Set to Become Minor League Free Agents in October" - otherwise known as "The Coleman Crow will be added" article.

Feel free to discuss and predict in the comments below, but I see the potentials as such:

Lock:

• None

Just Barely South of Lock:

• None

Under Fairly Strong Consideration:

• INF Jadher Areinamo (turns 22 in November)

Could Sneak In:

• INF/LF Ethan Murray (turned 25 this past May)
• RHP Will Childers (turns 25 in November)

It says quite a bit about 2022 1st round INF Eric Brown, Jr., and his $2.15 million (under slot) bonus as the 27th overall pick that he's not a consideration at all. Brown last saw action on April 22nd with Biloxi, and had appeared in center field in one game, perhaps hinting at an alternative route to playing time. Brown's OPS in 126 games at the AA level is .528. Brown turns 25 in December, and for hope for himself and us all, can look no further than my comments on Ethan Murray below for a turnaround path next year. That overall 2022 MLB early draft class is not going to go down in history as a strong group.

It was surprising to see Jadher Areinamo repeat High-A this year, though the Brewers have oft stated that the young man needed to work on his pitch selection / chase rates. Areinamo has already walked more often in 2025 (34 times) than he did in all of 2024 (33). His K rate is also up slightly but remains elite (was 11.1%, now 12.7%). The only step back Areinamo has taken is in his baserunning, just 9-for-16 in SB attempts this season (vs. 32-for-40 in 2024). He has played more games at shortstop (42) than at second base and third base combined (36). Given the other infield talent in the system, it's a possibility that the Venezuelan native is pitched in trade discussions this summer and fall. Even so, and yes, he's very young, but one would still have to sell a trade partner on the repeat of High-A.

It's only a 42-game 2025 sample given early-season injury issues, but Ethan Murray's recent production and defensive versatility have placed a slightly brighter spotlight on the 2021 5th rounder out of Duke. Then again, whether he was slowed down by other injury issues or not, Murray is just one season removed from an 82-game mess of a .525 OPS in 2024. That'll take some of the shine off this season's performance to date (.880 OPS).

Will Childers throws gas and is flashing a 1.01 WHIP in 2025, having just been bumped to Nashville this week. We certainly know that fireballing effective relievers can be targets in Rule 5, perhaps this undrafted free agent signing will be. The next few months will help determine that.

It's clear that the cream of the crop in the Crew's system is extremely young and inexperienced in terms of time at the professional level. Nearly 100% don't qualify for Rule 5 consideration this year.

Looking forward to everyone's thoughts.

Interested in learning more about the Milwaukee Brewers' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!