José Quintana, Nestor Cortes, and the Brewers' Looming Rotation Dilemma

After stretching out to 93 pitches in his latest rehab start, Nestor Cortes is ready to make his return to the Brewers. The veteran left-hander, acquired as the short-term piece in the Devin Williams trade with the New York Yankees in December, hit the injured list with a left flexor strain in April after just two starts.

It was Cortes's second flexor strain in six months, as he also missed time last postseason during the Yankees' run to the World Series. The hope is that those elbow troubles are in the rear-view mirror. Cortes said on Saturday that his elbow is now responding better between outings than it did in spring training and after his first two regular-season outings.

"The goal is to be able to prepare and get better between each outing, and I felt like I wasn't able to do that before I went on the injured list," he said. "My recovery wasn't well. I couldn't work in between starts on stuff that I needed to work on, and that's what made me decide what I decided. But I feel like now, throwing today and potentially a bullpen tomorrow or the next day, I feel like I can go out there and work on stuff I need to work on."

Where Cortes fits in the rotation picture is still unclear. The Brewers have a fully stocked starting staff, and each of their five current starters has an 86 ERA- (an ERA at least 14% better than the league average, adjusted for park factors) or better.

"It's a good problem to have, when you have pitching," Pat Murphy said on Friday after relaying that the Brewers were still discussing where and when Cortes would pitch next. Cortes said another rehab start could be on the table, even if he's healthy enough to return now.

A six-man rotation is not a viable solution. Because teams can carry no more than 13 pitchers on the 26-man active roster, adding an extra starter would leave Murphy (who leans heavily on his relief corps) short-handed in the bullpen.

"It's harder to do now, because it really limits your options on games in the fourth, fifth inning," he said last week in Seattle. "When things are teetering, it really limits your options when you're one down [in the bullpen]."

With Cortes back in the conversation, a highly qualified starter will have to cede their rotation spot. Murphy said it will not be Jacob Misiorowski, whom the Brewers have no intention of optioning to Triple-A as they manage his workload. Quinn Priester also has an option year left, but has blossomed into a mid-rotation mainstay. Furthermore, the club was hesitant to burn that option even when he was struggling.

That leaves Cortes himself or José Quintana—whose stuff and peripherals this season have been easily the worst of the group—as the odd man out. (Cortes was horrendous in one of his two starts before hitting the shelf, but posted a 3.33 ERA, 3.68 FIP, and 3.84 SIERA from 2021 through 2024.)

In fairness to Quintana, his style of pitching is designed to overperform some of those ERA estimators, particularly with help from an elite Brewers defense. This is his fourth straight season with a sub-4.00 ERA, even as the metrics have suggested in each of the last three that he deserved otherwise.

Still, no other pitcher in the rotation mix (including Cortes) must live on the edges of the strike zone as strictly as Quintana to succeed. While three of his five runs allowed on Saturday were unearned, he labored through five innings in the latest semi-regular reminder of how tenuous things get when he tries to paint the corners without pinpoint command. The Brewers could bump him to the bullpen and option DL Hall or Tobias Myers, but that would not solve the 40-man puzzle, and Quintana does not profile as one who can slide into high-leverage innings if needed.

The Brewers will likely drag out the decision until the end of the month. Thursday is also the afternoon of the trade deadline, so they have time to deal one of their veteran southpaws before they are forced to activate or waive Cortes.

If both remain healthy the rest of the year, Cortes profiles as the better pitcher, but Quintana has been more durable and is making just over half of his salary in 2025. That may make him more enticing to most teams seeking rotation help and secure a better return. Cortes, meanwhile, could be fresher down the stretch if he has put those elbow issues behind him.

"The grind is the same, but the workload hasn't been the same," Cortes said. "Probably a little better body-wise than what I would be in July in other years."

If Quintana fetches a better return and the Brewers prefer Cortes's outlook, trading the former and activating the latter could be a straightforward solution. Perhaps they would rather maintain the status quo and find a taker for Cortes. Barring an injury that opens a spot, something involving one or both of them will give by Thursday afternoon.