Matching Up With the Orioles in a Trade for a Big Bat

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

We know the Brewers need to add a big bat in an infield or outfield corner this winter. We also know some of what they'll have to offer in trades. With that information, a good potential match can start to come into focus.

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There are several ways the Brewers and the Baltimore Orioles can fit together well on a trade this winter. Coming off a 100-win season that only led to a disappointing Division Series ouster, the O's will be looking for ways to further shore up their roster for the long slog back through the AL East in 2024. The Brewers, as we know, need to augment their offense, and they almost certainly need to make those improvements at first base, third base, and/or in right field.

That's the single area of their roster where the Orioles seem to have the greatest likely surplus from which to deal. They probably aren't inclined to put overweening confidence in Ryan O'Hearn at first base, even after his surprisingly productive campaign as a platoon bat there, so he could be had at a low price. The Brewers have had good luck with players who share O'Hearn's basic profile in recent years--guys who hit for power, but don't show the requisite patience from the left side. Still, he would feel like a low bid on upgrading at that position.

More exciting and more expensive would be guys like Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, or Ryan Mountcastle. Santander and Hays have one and two years of team control remaining, respectively, so neither would be a long-term solution for the Crew, but they became two of the most important cogs in the productive Baltimore machine this year. Santander played the first 72 innings of his career at first base in 2023, and that might be his permanent defensive home soon. He, unlike O'Hearn, should hit more than enough to be worth regular playing time, even at that demanding position. Hays is a very good righty bat, but just limited enough in the outfield to make him an imperfect fit for the Milwaukee roster; he and Christian Yelich could be redundant.

A challenge trade of Santander and more for Corbin Burnes would be awfully intriguing, but it probably wouldn't work. The Brewers would want something substantial beyond Santander, and the Orioles would balk at giving up much of anything else. Burnes would be a seamless fit into the Orioles' porous starting rotation picture, though. In a deal involving him, the Brewers' plan ought to be to aim higher.

In this case, 'higher' means Coby Mayo. The funky-swinging, gawkish corner infielder is almost big-league ready, but Baltimore probably doesn't have an immediate opening in their lineup for him. Mayo hit 29 homers and maintained an OBP north of .400 in the two highest levels of the minors this season, and although his size and athletic profile both indicate his home will eventually be first base (not third), he could be a middle-of-the-order threat for the Crew well before the All-Star break. 

Naturally, though, Mayo isn't available for Burnes, alone. The Brewers would have to kick in someone to help the Orioles fill in other holes and maintain their depth, in order to get this deal done. That's how the trade value of an impending free agent works. After Milwaukee acquired Chris Roller in August and added him to the 40-man roster this month, they have the spare parts to make it all work. Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell, Tyrone Taylor, and Blake Perkins all have a chance to be the right piece to round out a trade. Which one it could be depends on how quickly the Brewers think they can bring along Jackson Chourio from here; on how much the Orioles are willing to spend to put down the roots of a new dynasty; and on the other options they end up having to bolster their rotation. 

The Brewers need a hitter, though. The Orioles have them. If Milwaukee's spending is as limited as we expect it to be, they won't be able to fill all their principal needs via free agency. This is a line of trade discussion the team will need to keep open throughout the hot stove period.

 

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Williams & 1 of Mitchell/Frelick/Wiemer for:  Mayo +.

The Orioles need a closer and the Brewers can contend next year without Williams because of their 4-5 headed monster at the backend.

Mayo should be ready by S2 or before and having his power and Wilken’s at corner infield until 2030 sounds good to me. Tyler Black can play one of the corner OF spots to get his bat into the lineup.

I still think the guy on the move is Burnes and think they are keeping Williams but they have potential closer options. I be curious to see what happens with Willy  

47 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Williams & 1 of Mitchell/Frelick/Wiemer for:  Mayo +.

The Orioles need a closer and the Brewers can contend next year without Williams because of their 4-5 headed monster at the backend.

Mayo should be ready by S2 or before and having his power and Wilken’s at corner infield until 2030 sounds good to me. Tyler Black can play one of the corner OF spots to get his bat into the lineup.

 

Orioles aren't going to trade Mayo+ for Williams and 1 of our OF. Our only chance at Mayo is in a Burnes trade.

3 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

Orioles aren't going to trade Mayo+ for Williams and 1 of our OF. Our only chance at Mayo is in a Burnes trade.

FWIW, BTV has Williams with more value than Burnes right now due to the extra year....

With Black and Wilken knocking on the door, I'm not trading Burnes for a corner IF, especially one who is likely to move to 1B.  Not sure I'd trade Williams for one either.  It would have to be a for a guy who for sure can stick at 3B in case Wilken and Black can't, or move to 2B if Wilken or Black can stick at 3B.

If I'm dealing with the Orioles it would likely be for Ortiz, especially if Adames is going to be traded.  Need more offense from SS/2B, much more so if no Adames.  Payamps for Ortiz matches up pretty well, Brewers can hold Williams until the deadline.

I think the Braves or Dodgers make much more sense than the Orioles for Burnes, because they have young pitching to send back and because they are more likely to have the $$$ to extend Burnes, netting more trade value.  I'd much rather have one of Smith-Shawver or Waldrep plus Grissom from the Braves for Burnes.  Grissom becomes the 2B bat the Brewers need.

Even though his cost wouldn't be all that high, they'd still be buying high on O'hearn.  I'd be looking at buy low candidates at first base such as Ty France from the Mariners.  His slugging slipped considerably last season, but at 29, there's no reason he can't bounce back.  His strikeout rate is below average and his OBP is solid (helped by the fact he gets hit a ton)

The O's are so deep with young bats it's amazing

C-Adley, Basallo

IF-Mountcastle, O'Hearn, Urias, Mateo, Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Holiday, Mayo

OF-Mullins, Hays, Santandar, Cowser, Hjerstad, Bradford, Beavers

And that's skipping some guys like Stowers, Frazier, Vavra, McKenna

They could probably trade for 2 aces and still have a top notch young lineup.

On 10/27/2023 at 9:40 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

The Woodruff injury really flipped my opinion on this. My goal would be to trade Burnes and Williams while extending Woodruff to a one-year deal in 2025, then retool as much as possible for that year.

Also, extend William Contreras, please.

I was learning that way even with Woody(but also happy to see them run it back as I can't be mad at a team trying to win).

But Burnes, Adams, Williams...I'd look to trade, add controllable talent for '25.

22 hours ago, jay87shot said:

The O's are so deep with young bats it's amazing

C-Adley, Basallo

IF-Mountcastle, O'Hearn, Urias, Mateo, Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Holiday, Mayo

OF-Mullins, Hays, Santandar, Cowser, Hjerstad, Bradford, Beavers

And that's skipping some guys like Stowers, Frazier, Vavra, McKenna

They could probably trade for 2 aces and still have a top notch young lineup.

 

I just don't love the idea that because you haven't had bats, you use your pitchers to add bats moving forward. Feels like we've been addressing bats the last few years in the draft or in trades, adding young talent...now what we need to do is trade with a team that's got young pitching but doesn't want to wait for it to develop. Dodgers, Phils...there are obviously others. The Rangers(though.,.if you win the WS, you can get more patient with those young arms...or maybe you double down, I don't know).