Shelby Miller Is Exactly The Bullpen Arm The Brewers Needed

[Jake McKibbin]

Image courtesy of © Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Shelby Miller isn't a sexy addition like some of the Brewers' National League rivals have acquired on a wild trade deadline day. Still, he fits exactly what the Brewers needed: another arm capable of getting outs at the back end of the bullpen. Miller has shown himself a really tough arm to get on top of this season, with some significant upticks in movement and velocity leading to a 1.98 ERA. 

Miller relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, with almost 65% usage this season, to get outs, and it features an intriguing shape. Using Jeremy Machino's model that compares expected movement of each pitch with how much a pitcher actually obtains, we can see it garners a little more rise and a lot more horizontal movement than expected, allowing it to miss a lot of barrels.

What we can tell from the above graph is that Miller gets more horizontal break on both his splitter and his four-seamer than hitters would expect from his three-quarters release point. A lot of this comes from seam orientation on the baseball, and is a key factor in surprising hitters. Quinn Priester's sinker is a great example of this; it doesn't look particularly special on the surface, but when factoring in his arm slot, it drops a ton more than hitters expect, creating a lot of ground balls.

Although Miller got more induced vertical break while he was with Detroit in 2024, he actually got slightly less rise vs expectation last season and a lot less horizontal movement on his fastball. The whole arsenal has kicked into gear, as you can see from Thomas Nestico's stuff model comparison:

Shelby Miller is now getting more movement both horizontally and vertically than we saw in 2024, where his walk problems and some home run misfortune hit hard. This season, he's managed to curtail the walks quite effectively by getting more swing and miss, and less overall damage because he's able to put away hitters. The more pitches you throw in an at-bat, the more likely you are to leave a mistake pitch over the plate.

The improvement in sheer stuff is added to by the new sweeper that has more or less replaced the hard cutter from 2024. It's very much a pitch used to get quick outs and weak contact when that's required, often in favorable counts, but its strong glove side movement adds a wrinkle that helps both the four-seamer and splitter play up even more.

Shelby Miller is better in 2025 than he's ever been. He's getting more chases, fewer swings inside the strike zone, and considerably more swings and misses this season. He's been dominant in 2025 and should allow the Brewers more maneuverability and options when they reach the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings of a tight ball game. All of that for merely absorbing $2 million of Jordan Montgomery's salary and either cash or a player to be named later.

The Brewers found value in a market of excessive overpays and have reinforced an area of their roster that had shown some shakiness around Jared Koenig of late. Miller projects to return sometime next week after a short rehab assignment, and they should expect him to hit the ground running.

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[Harold Hutchison]

How badly will the DFA of Bryan Hudson sting the Crew, though? Those roster moves will also have an effect on the Crew.

[MattK]

10 minutes ago, Harold Hutchison said:

How badly will the DFA of Bryan Hudson sting the Crew, though? Those roster moves will also have an effect on the Crew.

Unsure he will draw much traffic, even with teams scrambling around right now.  ERA over 6 and WHIP over 1.5 in Nashville.  He lost some mph on his heater, I thought, and his control has been shaky this year.

Shrug?  Biggest thing to me is always peeking to see if the late round drafted high schooler they moved to get him is turning out to be anything in the Dodger system.  

[Joseph Zarr]

35 minutes ago, Harold Hutchison said:

How badly will the DFA of Bryan Hudson sting the Crew, though? Those roster moves will also have an effect on the Crew.

Fair question. If it's the same LHP Bryan Hudson we've seen over the past year - the same One with a well- earned 6.00+ ERA in Nashville - with consistently lower velo and the same walk habits? One would gather it won't sting much. I can count on one hand the number of relief outings where I thought dominant Hudson was back. It's a sad downtrend from a player who was legitimately lights out in early 2024. But it is a prolonged downtrend. 

 

[Brian]

17 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Fair question. If it's the same LHP Bryan Hudson we've seen over the past year - the same One with a well- earned 6.00+ ERA in Nashville - with consistently lower velo and the same walk habits? One would gather it won't sting much. I can count on one hand the number of relief outings where I thought dominant Hudson was back. It's a sad downtrend from a player who was legitimately lights out in early 2024. But it is a prolonged downtrend. 

 

Hudson noticed a slight drop in his fastball velocity in 2025 and had been pitching at Triple-A Nashville since mid-May after allowing five earned runs and walking 12 batters over 10.1 innings in the majors. The left-hander hasn't fared especially well at Nashville (6.84 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 25:12 K:BB in 25 innings), so he could go unclaimed off waivers despite being just one season removed from a dominant season in relief in the big leagues. So we could possibly reclaim him. 

[igor67]

As awesome as the pitching lab is releasing Hudson points out that relievers are still volatile and a big part of the Brewer success is built on understanding that and having guys to shuffle around as needed and eventually move on without just blindly hoping guys will find it again.

[Team Canada]

5 hours ago, Brian said:

Hudson noticed a slight drop in his fastball velocity in 2025 and had been pitching at Triple-A Nashville since mid-May after allowing five earned runs and walking 12 batters over 10.1 innings in the majors. The left-hander hasn't fared especially well at Nashville (6.84 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 25:12 K:BB in 25 innings), so he could go unclaimed off waivers despite being just one season removed from a dominant season in relief in the big leagues. So we could possibly reclaim him. 

Are these your actual words or did you just copy from somewhere again?

[Brian]

40 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

Are these your actual words or did you just copy from somewhere again?

The stats are not mine but this is mine.  "So he could go unclaimed off waivers despite being just one season removed from a dominant season in relief in the big leagues. So we could possibly reclaim him."  Never been harassed by a Canadian before. Now you will probably ban me for talking back. Should I make up my own stats also? LOL 😁

[Jake McKibbin]

34 minutes ago, Brian said:

The stats are not mine but this is mine.  "So he could go unclaimed off waivers despite being just one season removed from a dominant season in relief in the big leagues. So we could possibly reclaim him."  Never been harassed by a Canadian before. Now you will probably ban me for talking back. Should I make up my own stats also? LOL 😁

Let's keep nationalism out of it. I'm from a place where that hasn't historically been a great thing

[Team Canada]

7 hours ago, Brian said:

The stats are not mine but this is mine.  "So he could go unclaimed off waivers despite being just one season removed from a dominant season in relief in the big leagues. So we could possibly reclaim him."  Never been harassed by a Canadian before. Now you will probably ban me for talking back. Should I make up my own stats also? LOL 😁

I'm not Canadian, you're not getting the reference in the avatar.

Here's the issue: If this part is something you found somewhere:

"Hudson noticed a slight drop in his fastball velocity in 2025 and had been pitching at Triple-A Nashville since mid-May after allowing five earned runs and walking 12 batters over 10.1 innings in the majors. The left-hander hasn't fared especially well at Nashville (6.84 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 25:12 K:BB in 25 innings)"

...and this part is your opinion:

"so he could go unclaimed off waivers despite being just one season removed from a dominant season in relief in the big leagues. So we could possibly reclaim him. "

You shouldn't just be mashing it together verbatim. One, it's taking words for your own when they are not (plagiarism). Two, it's just awkward to read all these posts that read like article snippets (because they are) instead of a thought that you just came up with while composing your reply.

People use stats all the time. I'm obviously not implying you shouldn't use them. But if you're not quoting and providing a reference, you shouldn't just copy/paste something you found.

[Brian]

6 hours ago, Team Canada said:

I'm not Canadian, you're not getting the reference in the avatar.

Here's the issue: If this part is something you found somewhere:

"Hudson noticed a slight drop in his fastball velocity in 2025 and had been pitching at Triple-A Nashville since mid-May after allowing five earned runs and walking 12 batters over 10.1 innings in the majors. The left-hander hasn't fared especially well at Nashville (6.84 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 25:12 K:BB in 25 innings)"

...and this part is your opinion:

"so he could go unclaimed off waivers despite being just one season removed from a dominant season in relief in the big leagues. So we could possibly reclaim him. "

You shouldn't just be mashing it together verbatim. One, it's taking words for your own when they are not (plagiarism). Two, it's just awkward to read all these posts that read like article snippets (because they are) instead of a thought that you just came up with while composing your reply.

People use stats all the time. I'm obviously not implying you shouldn't use them. But if you're not quoting and providing a reference, you shouldn't just copy/paste something you found.

So what are you suppose to do when your wondering why Bryan Hudson disappeared for almost 3 months and not a single word spoken on Brewer Fanatic, Brewers Website, MLB Network or FanDuel about it?  You start digging and try to find out what's up right?  So I look at Nashville's website and other articles and post what is reported, then I get the 3rd degree from YOU ONLY.  Maybe you should start a Q & A Forum so you can do the digging instead of me then you can embrace your total authoritarianism on each and every post. No one uses footnotes on posts here, especially stats from recent previous outings.