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Everything posted by Nader Raider Tim
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Okay how about this, MLB and the players union agree to put a percentage of yearly revenue in a pool. For sake of argument here lets just call it 10%. That 10% of money would then be divided up to players who exceeded their current contracts, mostly going to players in pre-arbitration or arbitration. However, breakout players would get a chunk too, a guy like Wade Miley would have likely gotten a bonus from this pool. What I like about this idea is that it helps out to equalize pay out for young players while not radically altering the current system. This doesn't do anything to get owners to open up their purse strings any more. Here's one more idea that gets talked about all the time, but I don't know if it gets talked about for these reasons. Institute a minimum payroll, along with expanded penalties for going over the luxury tax) something around $85-100 million. A team like the Marlins now who are rebuilding wouldn't be obligated to spend foolishly on free agents with this system there would be incentive for a team like Boston to trade huge contract or two along with some prospects to the Marlins. The benefit is multifaceted, the Red Sox free up money to improve the team, the players union gets more money available to the free agent market and the Marlins get prospects along with a big money player who may or may not rebound. Due to the fact that this system makes it easier to shed payroll for teams close to the luxury tax then penalties for exceeding the luxury tax could be massively expanded. I'd love to see it where teams could possibly lose all international budget or lose the 1st 5 rounds of draft picks for exceeding a set payroll amount.
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I like outside the box ideas. I don't think I totally get this idea though, there must be something I'm not getting. In this scenario what prevents from every big name player from deciding they are going to join a Yankee super team, a Dodger super team or a Boston super team. After that players would just funnel to mini super teams in other larger markets. Teams like Milwaukee wouldn't have a shot at ever retaining a player.
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That team could win some games against Baltimore, but there aren't too many teams that wouldn't win against that club.
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To Extend or Not Extend: Travis Shaw
Nader Raider Tim replied to Harold Hutchison's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It'd be nice guarantee Shaw some cash through his Arbitration years then have a couple $12-$15 million options. So 3 years $24 million or so with an option where after three years the Brewers can opt in to another 2 years for $24 million. (maybe slightly higher on the option) -
To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
Nader Raider Tim replied to Harold Hutchison's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'd like to see Jeffess as a long time Brewer, but I don't really see it as a necessary function. I'd offer Jeffress something like a 4 year deal for $12 million, but have a significant amount of appearance incentives. If all incentives are hit the total of the deal might be 4 year $24 million or so. Why it makes sense for the Brewers? It locks in a reliever who has been somewhere between solidly good and elite during his Brewer career. It also keeps a guy around who seems to be a good locker room guy and a good community presence, which seems odd to say given his earlier career struggles. Why it makes sense for Jeffress? It keeps him in a location that seems to be good for him. Again shocking to say given his struggles and Wisconsins struggles with those issues. It also locks him into have a solidly decent career earnings and gives him security against major injury. -
Pollock signs with Dodgers; 4-years, $55M+
Nader Raider Tim replied to KeithStone53151's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Dang, I was sure that AJ was going to have to settle for a 1 year deal. Good for him, I've always liked him. Just hate he's a Dodger now. -
I don't think Stearns is looking at Gonzalez or Pollack. Gonzalez is a .247/.323 hitter with some pop, but not worth anything near the $10-12M he is reportedly asking for. Villar was a better hitter and they let him go. Pollack is an OF and wants way too much money to be a bench warmer. Plus he is on the DL constantly. Not a guy worth going after given the Brewers OF. Moustakas is the only one worth looking at, but he already turned down $15+M from the Brewers. Stearns isn't likely to go up from that. I just think Pollock is going to end up signing a bottom out terrible deal of like 1 year 8-10 million. I think teams will be scared off by the injury history and he's going to be a crazy value signing for someone. My logic is going to a team like the Brewers might make sense for him because the Brewers do have depth and Pollock would be in position to only play 130 games total if everyone stays healthy. Him being able to get 1 day off a week or even a touch more might be able to keep him healthier and make him look a bit more attractive elsewhere next year. This one is just total gut feeling. Marwin Gonazales is baby Zobrist. His defensive versatility does wonders for his value in my mind. I'd say he'd be an option if his best offer comes in around 3/$27 million. Short term he's the Brewers second baseman, long term he's a top flight backup at multiple positions along with being a solid trade piece. Moose just makes sense, just not sure how much. Why I brought up each of these players is that I think they are going to fall into the category of "value" signings, although each for different reasons, and if they end up being "value" signings I could easily see Mark A being happy to push the budget to bring one of them in.
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Do the Mark A Brewers ever, really, have a hard budget? It seems like Mark A will always open up the purse strings a little bit more if the GM pushes for it. While I'm not in those meetings or part of those conversations it just seems like the Brewers have been willing to go that extra mile whenever it seems prudent. Does this mean a likely run at Dallas Keuchel? Probably not, but it does mean that I think signing Marwin Gonzalez, AJ Pollack or Mike Moustakas is still definitely on the table even though those contracts could be 1 year $10 million floors and $30+ million dollar multi year deals. Mark A seems to be an ideal small market owner. He does keep a tight reign on finances so things don't get of control and require a Marlins style selloff of bad signings, but he also is willing to spend more when it seems prudent. Oh, and #brewersmysteryteaminonMachado. He may be a dirtbag on the field but it's fun to imagine him in this Brewers lineup, as foolish as it would be.
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Madison Bumgarner
Nader Raider Tim replied to IntentionalHBP's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I like Bumgarner enough as a player but, like most of y'all I don't want to overpay for a pitcher with the warts that he has. Corey Ray by himself is probably an overpay in my mind. I'd toss out an offer of Zach Davies or Chase Anderson and Corey Ray for Maddy B and Panik, who I'm not a big fan of either. If the Giants are sold on needing one the Brewers prized trio of young arms (along with others) then awesome, but I need Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith. Even then I'm nervous about pulling the trigger. -
Dozier to Nats; 1-year, $9M
Nader Raider Tim replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Dozier has the highest upside offensively of the options for the Brewers but I'd rather just wait it out and see who's left in the $5 million or under range. ...unless it's Marwin Gonzalez then screw the budget and offer him up 3 years 27 million or 1 year 12 million. Doubtful either get it done, but Gonzalez would be a great player to add to the Brewers core. -
Man I loved the upside Broxton had but as soon as Cain was signed Broxton needed to go. Now lets see the Brewers get crazy with it and try and make a value run at AJ Pollock. With that you can play Braun as 4th outfielder / part time 1st baseman. It gives you 2 guys who can still play a great CF. Bring back Moose and roll with that on offense. Try and bring back Gio, or sign Brett Anderson or Clay Buchholz or maybe even Drew Pomeranz (sp?).
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Man, I'd like to say lower 60's but upper 60's is probably likely. Currently debating taking out a loan against my 401k to pay off high interest credit card debt I racked up after a forced move to third shift. My gameplan is to pay off that debt and start putting another $100+ a month towards retirement. Currently doing 5% of income in a 401k. My company has a retirement fund too which puts in another 5-7% in a fund. Being mid 30's and only having $100,000 set aside for retirement is scary. Especially when I've got a bunch of debt hanging over my head.
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Braun for Grienke is about as far as I'd go. I'd add in a pair of C+ caliber prospects if thats what would get it done, but nothing more than that. I know that Braun has his no trade and he'd probably veto anyways.
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Now thoughts on the waiver trade deadline
Nader Raider Tim replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Stearns is awesome are my thoughts on the trade deadline. Factor in what happened in the off season and I'm over the moon overjoyed with Stearns. Stearns isn't Ted Thompson where he has a one track mind in how to build a team. Stearns isn't Doug Melvin (with Mark A in his ear) willing to trade the farm at the first sign of being competitive. Stearns is looking for value. He's not going to overpay, he'll simply lay back and wait and let the market develop and will strike when a value deal presents itself. Now hopefully in a season or two when Brewers are little bit better he's more willing to go a bit bolder, but I don't see any reason not to have faith in Stearns. -
Michael Trout - What would you give up?
Nader Raider Tim replied to lcbj68c's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
First step in trading for Trout is taking on Pujols albatross of a contract. If the Angels become confident that Trout want to go to Philadelphia or somewhere else when his contract end I think then I think them using Trout to shed Pujols contract makes sense. So lets just say that it's this offseason that they do it, that means the first step to acquiring Trout for 2 seasons would be taking on about $85 million in dead money. After taking on that money then I think you are going to still have to trade them a package on par with the Yelich deal, perhaps with Major League talent to appease the fan base. Trout and Pujols for Travis Shaw, Josh Hader, Keston Hiura, Corey Ray Thats my thoughts on what a reasonable deal to entice the Angels to trade Trout would be. This would allow the Angels to add a bunch of youth and free up enough money that they could give out $400 million deals to Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Then in 3 years they can start worrying about how to get rid of those overpriced deals. -
Give me your boldest prediction
Nader Raider Tim replied to jonescm128's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Mike Trout and Albert Pujols for Travis Shaw, Keston Huira, Corey Ray, Luis Ortiz Bold...delusional, but bold. -
I'm not the biggest Moustakas fan, but I'm more than happy with this trade. Hopefully Moustakas can go on one of his hot streaks and really help ignite the offense. Shaw moving to 2nd base reminds me of when the Cardinals moved Matt Carpenter to 2nd for a while. Sure it'll be a bit exciting having him out there but the offense could see a nice boost. My initial reaction to losing Phillips and Lopez, was "meh, opens up 2 4o man spots this offseason".
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Since everyone else has said their piece I'll add mine in. Archer is going to cost a lot. The value the Brewers have to give up is going to frustrate the heck out of me because I love watching young players develop through the minors and then become key pieces of the team I love. This is why I love Baseball more than any sport. Well except for Ultimate or Spikeball, so I guess this is why Baseball is my favorite of the four big sports. However this isn't a rental. This isn't trading for Grienke with two years left on his deal. Archer is a guy who is a solid front line starter and it's rare those are available. When you can get one, and get one locked up for a long time at a huge discount you need to pay up, even though it's going to put a huge dent in your minor league system. The biggest thing I look at, and why I loved the Yelich deal is that you are acquiring a young controllable player who is likely to have his performance trend up while playing for the Brewers. So if the Brewers have young players develop you are going to be able to trade them for a significant amount. I legitimately would not be shocked if the players value was near where it currently stands if the Brewers look to trade either Yelich or Archer, assuming an Archer trade actually happens. Contracts in baseball are going to continue to trend upwards and those deals are going to continue to be things team seek out. On top of that Yelich is an asending player moving from a pitchers park to a hitter park. His counting stats should look a heck of a lot better with the Brewers. Archer seems like a guy who should have his ERA trend downwards based on FIP and moving to the NL should help tick his ERA down, making him look more like the front line starter he is. I know a lot of my value premise is assuming the luck of the draw and players stay healthy, but I love the Yelich deal for it's future trade value. Not that I want the player to be traded just that moves like Yelich and Archer trades have value on so many fronts. All Star players. Value contracts. Future trade value. Make a deal happen. I'd hate to see Burnes go but as long as Tampa values him as a top 50 prospect he'd have to be included. Not sure the value Domingo Santana has to the Rays but I hope Stearns is working the phones trying to find a prospect trade for Santana that the Rays would value. Burnes and Santana (or prospects acquired for Santana) would be a nice starting point for the Rays. Then I'd add in either Phillips or Peralta. These are the two I'd hate to give up, which is why I'd say only as an either or. If it's Phillips then add Ortiz. If it's Peralta then add Erceg. Right there are four dang good prospects that it'd hurt to give up, but I'd have a hard time saying no to that trade offer. With the Brewers offering this much up I'd try and get Colome too, with adding in one or two more moderate prospects. Supak, Bickford, Houser, Medeiros, Nottingham. I am not a big fan of offering up much for Colome so this is more looking at adding in a couple more moderate prospects while taking a bit of salary back from Tampa. If Colome's value is significantly higher than I think it is then you immediately move on. I guess my whole thing is that I think young proven controlled All Star caliber players have a value that far exceeds the prospect value they go for. Even if said prospect value is huge. Also this deal would hopefully push the Brewers into getting Darvish (or Arrietta next, or Cobb next). The current Brewers roster is a Wild Card contender (75% likely) with and modest shot at winning the division . The Brewers adding Archer (minus Santana) seem like a probable Wild card team with decent shot at the division title (35%). The Brewers with Archer (minus Santana) with Darvish seem like the odds on favorite for the division title. Those Yelich and Archer value deals would have done a tremendous amount to allow the Brewers the pay market value for Cain and Darvish. One last reason I love the Brewers going all in on Darvish this year is that I think next year is going to be crazy and price mid market clubs out of the market for most good to elite players next season. Teams are sitting out this year waiting for next years binge. Go all in while the market allows it.
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2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 6-20
Nader Raider Tim replied to And That's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Scooter Gennett replacement? Could hit for a solid average? Check. Is not going to ever take a walk? Check. Has negative value defensively? Check. Is a tiny human? Check. Looks like he fills all the needed requirements to be the next Scooter. Looks like we'll be seeing a 4 home run game out of this dude in the future. -
Yeah when I talk to people around here that are hitting up Rattler games they couldn't tell me the first thing about the player. It's mainly just a fun night out with the family / date night / free tickets. Trying to tell people to watch for Isan Diaz who is having a great year or something else I just see their eyes glaze over.
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Jeremy Jeffress Thank You To Fans
Nader Raider Tim replied to agent39's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Game 7? Pfft... Brewers in 4 -
Jeremy Jeffress Thank You To Fans
Nader Raider Tim replied to agent39's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Thank you for doing this. It's really cool for an agent and player to be invested in a fan base. I was a huge Jeffress fan when drafted. After the issues with the suspension I immediately assumed this was just going to turn into another case of a professional athlete who would end up just kind of wasting his talent by getting into trouble with drugs. You know what they say about assumptions being the mother of all... well you know the rest of that saying I'm sure. I'm glad that I was completely wrong and I couldn't have been happier to see Jeffress make his way back to Milwaukee and get his first taste of sustained big league success with our Brewers. So best of luck to Jeffress hope to see him have a ton of success in Texas and would love to see him make his way back to Milwaukee if the opportunity ever presents itself.

