TooLiveBrew

Source: Adam McCalvy's blog EDIT: McCalvy's blog post on the full list of Brewers competing -- 14 total players: Australia: Mike Walker Canada: John Axford, Nick Bucci, Taylor Green, Jim Henderson, Rene Tosoni Dominican Republic: Carlos Gómez Italy: Jeff Bianchi Mexico: Marco Estrada, Yovani Gallardo Netherlands: Hainley Statia Puerto Rico: Hiram Burgos, Martín Maldonado United States: Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy

Piazza was drafted basically as a family favor from Tommy Lasorda (a la Stan Kyles's son being drafted by the Brewers in '10), who was friends with Mike's father. You could argue he wouldn't have even gotten into pro ball without family connections.

Actually I think Coulter may wind up being a 3B prospect. He's still obviously very young, but I don't think I've yet seen a positive report on his defense/defensive projectability. I think the smart money is on him eventually moving to a corner position, but again since he's so young, he could well make drastic improvements on D in the next two-three seasons. But I agree with your larger point that the system is really thin on good bats.

Well, those baseball writers sure showed all those PED users & maybe-users!

He did win the MVP just two seasons ago

Trading Hart pre-season will mean he provides a comp pick for his new team. At the deadline, he wouldn't. I think that's probably a fairly significant difference in value, not to mention a whole season v. half a season.

I saw it in 3D, and wouldn't recommend it that way. A disclaimer would be that I'm not a big fan of 3D in general; I don't out-&-out hate it, but I don't look forward to it in general. For The Hobbit, I felt the 3D was more a distraction than enhancement. Sounds like we agree on 3D pretty well -- I enjoyed it in Avatar as well. I'm looking forward to seeing it in the theater again, but just not in 3D.

Really going out on a limb there. The Brewers and every other team. The team most likely to get him should he become available this season is the Brewers. Sorry, forgot to add that part. No. The Brewers have a lower-half farm system, & a dozen teams or so would relatively easily be able to outbid them with prospects.

Glad to see the B+ for Peralta. I think that matches up fairly well with how Peralta-backers would rate him. And I'm really looking forward to seeing what Roache can do.

So are we going to sign ANYONE? The Brewers have signed two FA RPs, and traded for another.

I just want to tell you 'good luck'. We're all counting on you.

Isn't it awesome to be able to say that relatively confidently? Jack White is a stud.

http://i.imgur.com/3SnHD.gif

While I won't begrudge you your opinion, I'll say read the Oldcity's lead post if you're genuinely confused about why he suggested possibly rebuilding.

That sounds a bit similar to a certain former Brewers draft pick...

I don't think I'd want to guarantee him two seasons, but I'd certainly be open to a 1 yr./$8M type base deal, with performance & vesting options that could push it to 2/$16M or so.

How on earth does this guy keep getting offers?

Agreed. His motto/slogan has been my signature since I saw he'd announced his retirement. Definite HOFer, and I'll miss that quiet, sweet swing.

The Brewers had the best OPS of any NL team, but also played in a very offense-friendly park. By OPS+, the Giants & Cards (107) were tied for first, with the Nats & Crew (102) tied behind them. Now, I realize that's a bit nit-picky, but I think it's important to remember when evaluating the '13 incarnation of the Brewers. Their home OPS was .809, while their road OPS was just .716. A guy like Weeks should probably be expected to hit to his career norms, Segura should take a step forward, and Lucroy hopefully will play a full season... but then on the flip side you have Ramirez entering his age-35 season, and Carlos "who am I as a hitter" Gomez. Nori Aoki -- will he replicate his success, or emulate Nyjer Morgan '11-->'12 & not be able to sustain a high enough AVG to be a net positive player? Maldonado is another offensive question mark (although I'm pretty sold on his '12 results matching up with his swing & approach at the plate). Weeks/Hart/Ramirez/Gomez/Lucroy(if only for the position he plays) are fair to significant injury risks. I'd guess/project that the Brewers will have one of the best offenses in the 2013 NL. However, I don't think it's necessarily a talented enough offense to just assume it'll be top tier again because it was in 2012... and I worry that many fans, & more importantly -- Melvin, might be making that assumption I agree completely that the org. has gone from having a barren wasteland of MiLB pitching to having a solid arsenal. However, the flame-out rate of young pitchers is so high that "solid"/"moderate strength" isn't good enough, imo, to write off concerns. I'd venture to guess that nearly every MLB team has 5-7 pitchers in the minors that might become big-league starters -- I don't think that makes the Brewers anything aside from average or slightly better. The org. lacks any #1 type of young pitcher, and frankly I wouldn't be content with the state of the farm's pitching stable unless there were two or more of those guys. With the numerous concerns I've laid out in this post, I agree with monty57 & others that dealing Hart & Gomez should be a top priority (assuming good returns) for Melvin this offseason. Obviously if the market is cold on either, you don't want to trade him just because. But Hart especially has more value to the Brewers through trade than keeping him. You don't have to rebuild, but you do need to re-load.

And thank goodness he took that chance.

Yeah I think he is worth that much more. Part of it is the increase in value of wins as you get higher in WAR, part is because I don't really believe in EJ, part is because I think circumstance has really made Greinke look worse than he has pitched. I think if you talk true talent I think Greinke is a low to mid 3 ERA pitcher and Jackson is a high 3 to low 4 pitcher. So for my money there is a 0.50 ERA difference in value here and as you approach the elite end of the spectrum the price tag just goes through the roof. I definitely understand that the talent is much more a bell curve than line in MLB, and we honestly don't really disagree at all on true talent levels of Greinke & Jackson. I just don't know that if I were a GM, I'd want to pay double (or triple) for Greinke. I also realize the upgrade of Greinke is worth a lot more to a contending team (LAA) than a non-contender (CHC)... and $150M for LAA isn't exactly the same as $150M for MIL. But still. I guess call me sticker-shocked.

So are you of the opinion that Greinke is worth over $10M more per season? I realize it's not as simple as one stat telling the entire picture, but the point of my post was about the huge disparity in pay. Heck, nearly half of ZG's innings last season came in one of the best pitchers' parks in MLB. I'd agree on factoring in Greinke's understandably slow start to the '11 regular season after the rib injury, driving up his ERA... but even then I'm not sure I'd want to pay him nearly double Jackson's AAV.

Beyond the hometown discount, the first few seasons (including '13) in Braun's deal cover pre-arb. & arb. seasons, so it's even more apples to oranges. But this comparison, too, underscores just how crazy the money can be in FA. Also, if Braun took the Fielder route, 2013 would be his last season as a Brewer.

This is essentially my take on this contract. And if the Cubs decide to flip him at any point, with the way salaries have escalated, $13M AAV over two or three seasons might even be really good value for a #3/4 type still on the right side of 30. I don't see much downside to this deal for the Cubs. It's crazy to think that Greinke was valued as being worth roughly $10M/season more than Jackson, and nearly $100M in total money guaranteed. 3.63 ERA for Greinke the past two seasons, 3.91 for Jackson. I don't in any way prefer Jackson to Greinke, aside from in a financial sense of course. Just crazy to me that there's that big of a monetary difference.

Guys that beat up women tend not to be too popular on the free agent market. Brett Myers seems to do ok. I think I recall his name even being brought up on BF.net recently as a FA SP to possibly target.