TooLiveBrew

Haha... my gf (big Lost/JJ Abrams fan) definitely got into watching Fringe. Being apathetic about the show, I felt it was my duty to make as many "Pacey" jokes as possible; the subtler the better. Unfortunately (in only this context) I was also apathetic about Dawson's Creek back when it aired, so I didn't have much material to work with in the name of subtlety.

I'm pumped about this 2012 team. There's well-founded concern about just how much of 100% of a season they get from the three star offensive players (Weeks, Braun, Ramirez), but this team is well constructed. If or when Weeks and/or Ramirez goes down with an injury, Taylor Green steps in, not Josh Wilson. If there needs to be significant time covered in the outfield, Roenicke & Melvin are choosing from Aoki/Plush/Gomez/Schafer/Gindl, not Mark freaking Kotsay & Erick Almonte. The pitching staff should still be strong, but I guess what I got excited about is the position players. I'm especially looking forward to Ramirez (well, and Gamel, but pretty sure anyone who reads these forums knows that).

The Nats are playing with house money in 2012. They have zero pressure or lofty expectations, & absolutely have the talent to nab a WC spot if they're fortunate with injuries & other teams aren't. Say what you will about the Nats, or the bad rep D.C. has in general... I just think it'd be cool to see a Washington D.C. MLB team in the postseason again. You have to go back to 1933 for the last time that's happened.

Maybe I'm too pie-in-the-sky on Ramirez, but I actually think he's going to have another good offensive season in 2012. Even if you limit an examination of his hitting to the past three seasons, his aggregate slash line was .286/.344/.491/.835. He dislocated his shoulder in '09, then struggled to regain his form in '10 & also had a thumb injury along the way. Then in 2011 he hit completely to his career norms. Obviously durability is the main question here, but to guess that his offense is only going to be decent next season seems way too pessimistic. I won't go back any further than four years (two healthy seasons, two with injury WOAHs), but adding just that one season to an aggregate look at his production sees the line jump to .287/.355/.499/.854. This guy has been one of the most overlooked hitters in the entire league imo, in terms of his swing. You don't often find sluggers who strike out so infrequently & sustain such a good AVG. He's still an extremely gifted offensive player imo. Even though he's not a good defender, his bat will continue to carry him. He's what Melvin was hoping he'd found in Casey McGehee, except Am-Ram is the real deal.

Thanks for clarifying on my earlier question. I think you may be thinking about the value Jackson could provide in the wrong context. Imo the only real thing that matters is summed up by your "Not a bad 4-ish starter and the Nats were smart to get him on only a one year deal." As WTP noted, the Nats don't need Jackson to be a pillar of their rebuild, but adding that really nice #4 SP could absolutely prove to be the difference between an extra win or two, to (theoretically) vault the Nats over another WC or NL East contender (I say NL East because you never know what can happen in a given season) & into the postseason. However, I also think you're reading the picture well for the Nats, in that Jackson could well wind up getting flipped if the Nats are out of the race come July. The new CBA certainly dampens the type of return a flipping team like the Nats could expect on trading a guy like Jackson, but it'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

What does it being a one year deal have to do with anything? He's signed for 2012, that's what the Nats wanted. I'm sure Jackson would much, much rather find a long-term contract instead.

Heh, funny you slipped with "Peter," instead of Joshua, just after mentioning the STEWARD OF GONDOR!

Is that possible (getting a MLB ST-camp invitation during ST)? I honestly don't know. Overall, I guess I just can't bring myself to get too worried about Patterson. If Melvin shatters my faith in him on this one, I won't have much left. http://www.ezboard.com/intl/aenglish/images/emoticons/smile.gif

From Adam McCalvy's blog, four days prior to Jerry Crasnick's piece...

We've seen how this will play out before Edmonds, Kapler, Reed, Kotsay, Duffy... Every single guy you listed there got an NRI, except for Kotsay, who got a guaranteed MLB deal (my rage there transcends words or language).

[quote author=jjgott wrote: [/b] Just saw this posted on reddit, and figured out (I think) that the original post credit should go to Brew Crew Ball. "Terrible on D", a song in tribute to Yuni, sung to the tune of "Rolling in the Deep" (clicking on either link I posted here gets you to the video)

Adam McCalvy put up a blog post about this, complete with a couple of decent stabs at a hockey-related nickname: Tony Powerplay, & Igor Plushki. He also included another pic of Morgan & his jersey, & the Sharks didn't disappoint on the nameplate... http://mlblogsbrewersbeat.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/tplush_01301.jpg?w=300&h=161

[Y]ou also have to remember that Loney was a lot younger at each level compared to Gamel. This is a good counterpoint. However, the difference in power potential/ability between both players is pretty apparent, not to mention that Loney's PCL experience (Las Vegas) was significantly more hitter-friendly than Gamel's at Nashville. Another kinda funny or odd thing in looking at Loney & Gamel is that Gamel easily could have been a MLB regular at the same age Loney became one (23), but we all know how that wound up for Mat. Here's hoping 2012 is a better story.

And with all due respect to both you & d-o-a, I'd guess Weeks might just be a tick better conditioned. Apologies if I've assumed incorrectly there, but Rickie's a bit of a freak.

I'm trying not to examine this based on statistical production, but appx. talent level instead. I don't think Loney compares well as a hitter to Gamel. The only way he compares well is that he's not a very good hitter for a 1B, and that's what people have already started to label Gamel. Take a look at Loney's MiLB numbers -- even in the offense-crazy western PCL he didn't really hit home runs with any regularity. These guys are just not good comparisons imo. I can't guarantee that Gamel will prove his doubters wrong, but I think it's better to examine him from a scouting standpoint than a statistical one at this point. Even if you go with stats, Loney's MiLB career doesn't even come close to Gamel's. The funny thing, to me, on the stat-based Gamel examinations, is that two seasons of a throwaway number of PAs is what has everyone concerned (beyond assumptions about his character). If the Brewers had never given Mat cups of coffee in 2010 & '11, you're looking at a guy with a MLB career OPS of about .760, and who the casual fan wouldn't assume "can't hit big-league pitching". But an unproductive 15 PAs in '10, & 26 PAs in '11 so greatly affect the small sample that is Gamel's MLB career up to now, that instead people are convinced this is just another failed prospect we're talking about here. In the closest thing he's ever had to meaningful big-league playing time, Gamel has already basically matched Loney, and that was two full seasons ago. Mat's a better hitter now than he was in '09, and as he continues to develop & display his skills, hopes for just a mid-.700s OPS will be a thing of the past imo.

Probably not a bad thing to get a veteran presence in AAA to mentor Schafer & Gindl. This was what came to mind for me as well. And if not actively mentor the younger players on the team, Patterson is at least someone a young guy could approach to ask any question(s) he may have. Patterson's been through quite a bit as a baseball professional, from top prospect to lightning rod of fan frustration in MLB. I'm sure he's experienced just about any (not too crazy) adverse situation a pro ballplayer could encounter.

Even so, the DR specifically seems to have (overall in MLB) a pretty good success rate. Maybe that's just confirmation bias on my part, I really haven't looked into much deeper than "seems like..."

I'm familiar with Loney's H/R splits, but his past two seasons of performance on the road have stunk as much as his performance at home. He's just not a powerful hitter. If a Loney-caliber hitter (based on what I think Loney's talent is, not small sample splits) is all Gamel winds up to be, I'd be disappointed.

I'm disappointed this thread title got edited out of !ALL CAPS! It totally fit with the 'theme' of the PR video Cespedes's camp released. I'm just wondering if that's something that 1992casey was aware of when he edited the thread title http://www.ezboard.com/intl/aenglish/images/emoticons/smile.gif

I don't think it's fair to say DR guys hardly ever pan out, the success rate on DR/LA prospects has to be pretty close to what it is for US prospects. Prospects in general have very long odds to succeed, but I'd be willing to bet the Brewers were very glad to have Alcides Escobar, for one. While not all homegrown, 9 of the current Brewers on the 40-man roster are products of Latin America: Ramirez, K-Rod, Manzanillo, Peralta, De La Cruz, Rivas, Veras, Maldonado, & Gonzalez. And yes there are concerns about player age, but that's been the case for years & probably will continue to be an issue in the future. It's not like MLB has a whole lot of control over whether or not people are going to try to lie & game the system. I'd imagine they've been fighting to try & stay ahead of the curve on this issue for almost two decades now.

At best he can be a significantly better hitter than James Loney -- at best, I'd use Chase Utley as an offensive comparison. But keep in mind that's "at best." Gamel has quite a bit more raw power than Loney does. I really think the thing that shines through brightest as shaping the opinions of fans who've only seen Mat play with the Brewers is lack of familiarity with him & his skillset. The automatic assumptions he's just another 1B who can't really hit (Loney), or that he's going to be a negative in the field... imo this is all due to unfamiliarity with him & not having seen him play. I don't claim to be some expert, but I can at least say I've watched him several times via MiLB.tv over the past couple seasons in addition to watching him at the big-league level. And I can also say with full confidence that, unless he falls completely on his face and/or is benched really quickly, many fans are going to be downright shocked by how good of a hitter he is. He'll strike out, and some fans will never get over that (like with Weeks), but he'll absolutely hit... as long as he's given the chance to settle into being a big-league regular.

Agreed, brwrsfn. MLB would want to say as little as possible about this if the suspension is overturned/not upheld. And since Braun's reputation is at stake in such a big way, I'd expect him &/or his camp to be crowing as loudly as they could about a possible dismissal of his suspension.

Glad to see you did some digging & found a few answers. But don't feel too badly about not knowing prior -- the Brewers have absolutely upped their presence in terms of DR or Latin American signings in the past... maybe 4 or 5 seasons? I'd recommend checking out the User Driven Power 50 thread, or even the P50 currently posted on BF.net itself (not a current version, but it has better descriptions than the user-driven version). Gian Rizzo & [Joel Dicent]* both made their way onto the user-driven list, along with fellow 2011 DSL arm Osmel Perez. Another good BF.net resource is the Draft/International Talent forum. A thread I always go back to quite a bit is the Official Draft Pick Selection/Signing thread -- not only useful at a quick glance, each player's name in the lead post links to a specific post about the player, including scouting reports (for many, but not all) & newspaper/online articles about them and/or their draft day experience. And just in general, keep visiting the MiLB forums. I've learned far more here about Brewers prospects & prospect-watching in general than I have anywhere else. It's a great resource with excellent discussion. EDIT: and to get back a little more to your concerns about velocity in the system, or lack thereof, definitely get excited about guys like Thornburg, Peralta (was hitting the upper 90s with his FB in '11), Bradley, Jungmann, Lopez. Santo Manzanillo is a reliever with a huge FB, & probably the best pure arm strength/velocity in the system. Apologies if these are all guys you're already familiar with, but the Brewers actually do have some guys who can really let it fly, and some aren't even all that far away from the bigs. [Joel Dicent]* - whoops, he only made it on my user-driven P50 list, not the final cut

NLC title was absolutely owed in large part to Marcum, but no success in the postseason was. Kinda funny that one knock on Pineda in this thread is that he ran out of gas towards the end of the season... sounds familiar, right? I like that you (WTP) focused on hindsight being 20-20, though. I'll lead here by saying it certainly applies to both sides of this coin, but I'd still rather have seen the Brewers either keep Lawrie or move him for a young & cost-controlled player like Pineda. I wouldn't have cared whether or not they went 'all-in', because it would have been good long-term planning & moving towards a longer window of contention instead of panicking because Fielder was leaving. Am I happy with the 2011 Brewers' run? You bet! But it doesn't mean the the Brewers made the best decision. I just can't bring myself to believe that either Jack Z never asked Melvin about Lawrie, or that Pineda somehow wouldn't have been available for him prior to 2011. But this is a longstanding complaint with Melvin, he seemingly has zero faith in prospects (especially pitchers) translating their success when the MLB team is trying to contend. Even though every year there are guys like Pineda, or Jamie Garcia, or whoever, that break through & help their teams right away. For as good as he is at identifying veterans or non-young players who should be expected to produce well (from a Marcum to a Morgan or a Narveson), I scratch my head about how bear-ish he is on young players as a general policy. Fortunately for his job security, the Brewers' fans have stepped up in a huge way to completely bankroll the expensive add-with-veterans approach. It's just not good long-term planning. And, ironically, I'm rambling on about the Brewers not making the best or most cost-effective solutions in a thread about the Yankees, of all teams, trading for a young, projectable, & cost-controlled player.

While MiLB stats aren't anywhere close to perfect to use to try & guess at MLB production, one thing I check sometimes on a young player transitioning to the bigs is how he did each time he moved up a level. Did his production suffer a lot? Did his BB/K ratio get worse? Did his XBH power show close to his normal rates? Gamel's track record throughout his MiLB career is that he's handled moving up levels at least as well as your standard top (meaning Top 100 overall types) hitting prospects do. I think thumperden is pretty close with that slash line guess; only difference for me is I'm a tad more optimistic about his OBP skills translating quickly.