I guess the problem I see is that you can't use how a guy "starts out" to determine what he's going to produce -- these are just games like Aug.18th-Sept. 12th are just games, too. I like much better to rely on past performances, since you obviously have a larger sample. Seeing as how Prince is a young player who's growing, at the least we shouldn't expect him to regress much. Then again, "regress" is all so subjective. Some fans would see a season where Prince "only" hit 38 HR as a step back, even if he drew over 100 BBs & surpassed 40 2Bs. What I try to do is gauge a range of 'expectability' (sorry, don't know how to say it). Prince has high 30 to low 60 HR potential imo, so I can't really be too upset if he hits 37, or too excited if he were to hit 58 (well, that would be pretty exciting... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ). I'm no expert, but I've found that not trying to define 'success' or 'failure' too strictly has helped me understand the fluctuations of baseball much, much better.