Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

TooLiveBrew

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,458

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by TooLiveBrew

  1. TooLiveBrew
    Blue = sarcasm
  2. TooLiveBrew
    That rumor, in essence, perfectly sums up the offseason rumor mill. One 'insider' (?) says a certain package would have a 75% chance of getting a deal done, and the other team's F.O. guys don't even know of the offer. It just sounds like a reporter asked somebody, 'Hey, would this offer get it done?', and the 'insider' (again, ?) replied, 'That'd probably have about a 75% chance of being accepted.' Then the rumor is printed ambiguously by the reporter who posed the question in order to generate interest. Then people like us get ahold of it, and it runs wild!
  3. TooLiveBrew
    Wow - on the surface, that seems like a really dumb offer by Cincy.
  4. TooLiveBrew
    That's like saying it's not a valid stat at all, or that Jake Peavy consistantly posts lower ERAs every year than Bret Tomko because of extreme luck. Well, it's probably more accurate to look at how much significantly better Peavey has been than Tomko/others in the non-ERA categories -- which is part of what FIP attempts to address. I questioned the frequency of this occurance, and I still do Well, to be sure the numbers are highly subjective, but when there's a gulf as wide as the FLA-COL gap, you do have to admit there's (at worst) some relevance there. You're right to remain cynical, especially since defensive metrics are still very new - but don't just toss it out since it seems unlikely to you. Check it out, and if you still feel as strongly that there's too much weight being thrown on it, go with numbers that make more 'real-world' sense to you. All I can say for (x)FIP is that I've found it much more useful than ERA/+, but it's not like ERA/+ is the only other choice.
  5. TooLiveBrew
    Ha! I was thinking this earlier, logan... "why is it that most of the good stat discussions take place in the ML forum?" If only more traffic would go there. Oh well, this is a reasonable substitute.
  6. TooLiveBrew
    And keep in mind that "neutral environment" includes an average defense factored in behind the P.
  7. TooLiveBrew
    xFIP is a simplification, definitely not perfect, as pointed out already. But it does a good job of removing luck, natural variation, defense, and park effects. Those are not the only factors that influence ERA, however, but they are large ones. This is a sound bit of advice. As with any stat, don't trust it on its own, but (x)FIP is a significantly more accurate stat imho in evaluating pitching, since it doesn't gloss over major considerations the way ERA (and ERA+) does. This happens very very rarely. A routine play in my opinion is an easy ground ball hit directly at a fielder. If a fielder misplays it, it goes down as an error. Unless the official scorer is blind or something. People are acting like this happens all the time. It hardly ever happens. So then the question you have to ask yourself in terms of preference is, 'Since it happens rarely, does that mean I/you/we should penalize a pitcher for it?' If your answer is 'yes', since in your estimation it's a negligible occurrence, then you'll probably be happy to stick with ERA/+, etc.. However, the example provided of the 2007 Marlins v. 2007 Rockies (the 2007 Brewers certainly fall in as a strong example, too) seems to indicate that this happens much more than 'hardly ever.'
  8. TooLiveBrew
    I think it's reasonable that pitchers should be expected to be able to rely on his fielders and not be expected to K everyone. Right, but patrick, why are you desiring - essentially - to punish the pitcher when his fielders aren't reliable? That doesn't make sense. In a vaccuum, ERA is the perfect stat. But since baseball isn't played in one, it has serious drawbacks. Your stat line example is too unspecific to determine whose FIP would be better, iirc. You just have some random ER, but it's a good way to understand how ERA punished Cappy or Soup - if all those runs are earned, there's the chance (and with the 2007 Brewers, a very very good one) that some of the hits were plays that should have been converted into outs, but weren't, and weren't scored as errors. 99.9% of the time the routine plays outnumber the bad and spectacular plays in a game and Fip ignores all of them. You have to ask yourself which is preferred though - punishing pitchers for easy plays that weren't turned into outs & weren't scored as errors (which is highly subjective anyway), or ignoring the impact of defense entirely and only focusing on what a pitcher can control... Fielding Independent Pitching.
  9. TooLiveBrew
    If Rickie's bat plays to potential, it's fantastic at literally any position in MLB. But a one-word response to the original post's question: No.
  10. TooLiveBrew
    However, whats wrong with ERA? If a pitcher gets a guy to hit an easy ground ball to the shortstop, isn't it expected that a major league SS is supposed to make the play? How does that have anything to do with luck? Gee, he was lucky that the professional ballplayer didn't botch the play that he is paid handsomely to make. Isn't that what the E in ERA is all about? Yea, except that many (a majority?) of misplays by fielders aren't registered as errors. Capuano is a prime example of this in 2007. Since Weeks & Braun missed so many 'routine' balls, yet weren't charged with errors, the burden then falls to the pitcher - even though an average fielder would turn most of those balls into outs. You've made light of the fielding situation, but in actuality, what you've described is precisely why FIP/xFIP has value. In other words, why punish a pitcher for something that's totally out of his control? That's what ERA does to pitchers like Cappy with the 2007 Crew defense behind him. And it's also why all the 'OMGz he totalee lozt 17 gmz in a row!' talk from 2007 was comprised of plenty of hot air.
  11. TooLiveBrew
    I'm done supporting Doug, I want results. Alright. So basically, unless Doug's moves come prior to Dec. 5th, they're megacool. Any time later, they suck?
  12. TooLiveBrew
    good to see some support for Doug.
  13. TooLiveBrew
    There's now way this happens, but imagine for a second Swisher and Street are on the Brewers.... See how happy you feel? That's exactly what I was going to post. Then pogokat pooped in my dream-hat.
  14. TooLiveBrew
    Yea - the whole 'we don't have to trade for him' thing is pretty attractive. I'm still waiting to see what Doug & Co. have in store, though.
  15. TooLiveBrew
    Crap! Unless we land Rolen, that is.
  16. TooLiveBrew
    From Peavy's point of view, he gets to be where he wants, has a lot of guaranteed money, but he's also young enough that he can expect that he might still hit the market after this deal should he so desire. This was my initial thought. If the 3-yr. number sticks, that means he hits FA again as a 30-y-o. You will still likely see a ginormous deal then - at least 5 years, and even ginormouser money than is being thrown around now. "This team has given me financial security for this Alabama boy's life. I'm very comfortable to be where I'm at." I know there's the whole angle I just mentioned (in that he'll get SOOPA-PAAAAYID in 3-ish yrs.), but boy is that refreshing to hear.
  17. TooLiveBrew
    At least he didn't hit her in her street, in the face.
  18. TooLiveBrew
    So... he hunts enthusiastically?
  19. TooLiveBrew
    The 2008 draft looks like it'll be crucial in establishing success for the Brewers beyond 2010-ish. I'm relieved Jack Z. is still our man, and hasn't yet been snatched away to be anyone else's GM. 6 picks in the top 60 is being handed the chance to reload on a silver platter - obviously, though, it came from calculated risks/decisions in player acquisitions.
  20. TooLiveBrew
    The Rolen to Milwaukee stuff was a major topic of conversation. It is Rolen and either Randy Flores or Ryan Franklin to the Brewers for Chris Capuano, Kevin Mench, and TGJ Wow - sign me up for Ryan Franklin yesterday. He's one I was hoping the Crew would snatch up in FA, but he ended up re-signing with StL. Make that deal happen. Franklin would be a great arm to add to the 'pen. I'd rather the SP traded be Vargas, and I'd like to know more about the impact Rolen's shoulder problems have heading forward, but initially this looks like a really good deal.
  21. TooLiveBrew
    Johnny looks like the odd man out in that trio. Nice trade by Omar Minaya. Milledge is going to have to become a star player to even make this trade even. That's a nice job by a GM of filling a LF vacancy... *COUGH!* http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  22. TooLiveBrew
    A lot of the other guys in CF play a much better defense. Hall gave up a lot hits and runs last year by his play in the field to negate his stats. He is an average CF when you put the full game into it. In 2007, yes, I agree. But most other starting CF have played the OF for more than 'never,' though. I fully expect Hall to bounce back offensively in '08, and provide much improved defense.
  23. TooLiveBrew
    those are every day major league stats nothing to get crazy for. Check out other production from CFers. If a guy is ( a bit) an .800 OPS guy, that's quite good for the position.
  24. TooLiveBrew
    Plus the Trop is way out in the middle of nowhere - basically they picked a spot near a big interchange if I'm not mistaken. Glad the Brewers would never do this. Wow, that stadium looks incredible. And I agree it appears that they've left room to add seats in the future. Very cool design.
  25. TooLiveBrew
    $5.00 double bottle of wine = drunklicious.
×
×
  • Create New...