TooLiveBrew

aracko, that's a great trade. I can only hope the Angels would indeed have some interest in Jenks. And while they clearly have a need in the OF, I'm not sure if Jenks would get much done. He'd be awfully expensive as a 4th OF, and incredibly similar to current Halo Garret Anderson. Anderson's good against RHP, and has posted a .696 OPS v. LHP from 2004-2006. He's also incredibly expensive -- think of him as a rich man's Jenkins. He is still owed: 2007: $11 mil 2008: $12 mil 2009: $14 mil (club option, $3 mil. buyout) I think your trade works for us, aracko, but probably not for the Angels. From their perspective, Quinlan is a cheap 4th OF option, and is the guy we would love to have in Gross's role --- only in that he crushes LHPing, which is the perfect complement to Anderson (or Jenks!) I just don't see the Angels biting on this one, but I love the creativity. Quinlan is certainly not a guy I'd considered

Is there any reason to expect that Arencibia will last until the 7th pick? I hope he does, obviously, and would be timed perfectly in regards to both Estrada & Miller. But if he were the top C in the draft, wouldn't he go top 5? So if a team there still had a need (which most organizations do), why would they pass? I just don't feel optimistic about him lasting, and worry the Crew will take another HS arm. I like the philosophy in doing so, but I'm starting to doubt the results. Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano, and David Bush all were NCAA pitchers. Suppan and others, obviously, were HS products. I just feel that, with pitching, when you're drafting top-10, you have to ensure that you get a talent that will be able to conribute, not someone who needs a lot of work (Rogers, for example - - not to be harsh on him) It's the 2nd (YoGa) & 3d (Inman) rounds where reaching for a high-ceiling HS arm is a better-calculated risk

Also, Cameron's 2007 contract is a team option at $7 mil., with a $500,000 buyout clause. What about agreeing to send the $ for the buyout, have the Pads excercise that, and the Crew renegotiating with Cameron? Something like 2 years, $15 mil -- 2007: $7 mil.... 2008:$8 mil

Yes please. This trade would thrill me. Cameron does have holes in his offense. There's no question. For instance, he Ks a ton. But he does draw 70-80 BBs per season as well. For the value he provides defensively, I would beg for this deal. Just like the Suppan deal just seemed to have a certain fit when I first heard about it, this proposal gets me the 'Why does this seem ideal' thought running through my head It does seem that we'd have to part with more than just Jenks, or be willing to eat some of his salary, to get this kind of deal done.

as a Yankee fan, the possible addition of Helton worries me far more than JD Drew. At least you know Helton's gonna be out there for 500+ ABs. His sweet lefty stroke is born to play the Peske pole. David Ortiz Manny Ramirez Todd Helton *gulp*

*cough* Jenkins *cough*

All the best to you, Geno. We'll look forward to getting you back at 100%, you gritty battler, you! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I feel so uncomfortable giving up cheap, young starting pitching (ZachJack, etc.), especially given that we have them under contract control for years to come. If we needed a starter, or could land a slugger by doing so, ok sure. But not in the Pen. Just look at Shouse as example 1 that you don't need to get some big name to have success out of a reliever. That being said, we do still need (at least) another LOOGY/LHRP, as I continue to beat this point into the ground.....

The Cards' pitching situation makes them sooooo vulnerable. I know they have LaRussa & Duncan, but come on. This is getting ridiculous. Any Redbird fans care to weigh in? You must be pulling your hair out at this point. I know every season can bring a surprise young guy, but man! I can't believe they've backed themselves into a corner like this.

Nice work though, fleehaw. I like the creativity

But wouldn't a deal that reduced the cost of Helton make sense for some mid-market team? Maybe Baltimore? If the understanding is that you don't get a guy that hits HRs as frequently... and you don't pay as much (as Hou. did to get, Lee, for example). What you do get, is a very productive, albeit slightly older player. Years from age 34 to 38. Although not ideal, IMO (just like RFK might be a match for Helton's swing at this point in his career), he can still generate offense. Tony Gwynn's career-high RBI total came at age 37, when his 119 were good for 6th in the NL. I'm not saying Helton is Tony Gwynn. But he has had a durable career, and I'm sorry - but if I'm a mid-level club with a big contract (perhaps an unhappy player, like Tejada) and can get a discounted rate on Helton for that long, I think it's an interesting idea, if nothing else. Instead of breaking the bank on a younger player (who may also be a HR slugger), taking a proven commodity such as Helton could serve to provide stability, instead of hoping for stop-gaps in case prospects don't pan out. For a team that has to select which young guys to re-sign, and which to let walk, this can serve as both stability & a 'win now' approach, when the young stars you have retained are in their primes. This obviously doesn't apply to the Brewers specifically in terms of Helton, but I think this is the kind of move - applied generically to free agency - that may prove savvy once it's time for several and all of our young talents to sign longer-term deals

What I want, specifically, is relief pitching, preferrably LHRP. If not, then any reliver(s) will do, and the salary gone (although, as you point out, it's off the books after 2007 anyway). Gross has proven he's more than capable of producing like Jenks against RHP. Gross will also bring a better OBP, therefore a higher OPS is likely. Our Bullpen is at least one more arm away. If that arm is RH, I'd want to see another LOOGY/LHRP added. If the arm you can get for Jenks is LH, then I feel quite confident.

FYI, for those interested in the Park Factor -- Helton's OPS+..... 2006 = 119 2004-'06 (avg.) = roughly 140 (sorry, don't have a calculator at the moment) I know these are not 'elite' numbers, which is why I discuss salary pickup by the Rox

Some other potential candidates for Helton: Atlanta - already you hear Andruw Jones trade talk; The Rockies are not sure about going with Tavarez in CF Baltimore - Miggy Tejada rumors are almost as common as Manny rumors; rumor of team being sold soon... take Tribune Co. philosophy & build team's supposed value? Seattle - Richie Sexson's contract is similar, in terms of AAV ('07 & '08 @ $14 mil./year), but expires after 2008; do Mariners want a longer-term, much more disciplined 1Bman (granted with less HR pop) Washington - Decrease in HR power may play well in the cavernous RFK home-turf of the Nationals; Washington franchise lacks any kind of 'face' for their franchise, although Zimmerman seems to be on his way.... (Just some possibilities to counter Toby's 'No one needs or wants Helton' thought)

I suppose I can buy that, but this guy is a top-notch offensive player. I know there were rumors, and his 1999-2004 stats look a little juicy - especially given his drop to 15 HRs in 526 ABs in '06. He still drew 90+ BBs for his 7th straight season, though. In addition he mashed 40 2Bs for the fourth straight year (if you lower it to 37 2Bs, he's done it 9 years in a row). Even though his SLG% dropped, due exclusively to his HR drop, in 2006 Helton still posted an .880 OPS. Further, his OPS v. LHPing in 2006 was .824 (over the past three years, it's .812). His OPS overall from the last 3 years is .983 On top of that, he plays solid D at 1B. I find it very hard to think that the Rockies will not find some suitors. Obviously they'll have to eat quite a bit of his salary, as he's due $16.6 mil/year through 2010, and then the numbers get bigger. While he's not worth 'elite slugger' money, any team with an average to above average 1Bman would greatly improve themselves by adding one of the most consistent offensive players in the game. Here's a big hypothetical ---- If you ran a team like, say, the Giants, how much would the Rox have to eat in salary to make you swing away on this deal? There's a very real chance the Bonds contract doesn't get finalized. Health & legal issues are still hovering, and soon to be dive-bombing. 5 more years left, $90 million is the starting point. I'm not talking in terms of who would be sent in return, just the dollars. If I'm the GM for the Giants (just a team w/o a good 1B option, nothing specific here), I'd start getting interested around $70 million. That's AAV of $14 million. That's perhaps a tad too high still, but if you can somehow get the Rockies to agree to pay $25 mil. of that remaining salary (as opposed to all $90 mil.), then I think you'd start to hear some phones ringing in Denver

Well read & well-timed MNBrew! His post better explains myself than.... myself "Allow myself to introduce.... myself..."

No no no no no no no GUYS! I'm sorry. Obviously Helton has no place. I was rushed for time btw. classes http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif He's a guy who may well end up being traded, and since he's a 'bigger name/talent', the deal could perhaps be a complicated one (esp. given his salary) What I mean is if anyone can factor in a trade where the Crew get involved. NOT to acquire Helton, but to move Jenkins. That's why I titled the thread as it is. Here's the hypothetical (just for example's sake, don't take it as what I think is a reasonable trade): Rockies get: Jenkins Brewers get: Scott Proctor Yankees get: Helton Is that clearer? Sorry for the confusion. I'd hope people know me to be a little more savvy than suggesting the Brewers go after Todd Helton! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Per Rotoworld: I don't have time to iron anything out right now, but will later. Anybody else have some ideas for deals on which the Crew could join, finding a way to ship Jenkins?

Ok, I hear you on the BBs, but this guy is entering his 3d full-time campaign, and improved on a .736 OPS, jumping in 2006 to .851. While I can buy that he may never surpass that, sustaining a career OPS of appx. .800 is more than just decent. FWIW, Sanchez's minor league career yeilded an OPS of .819. The Brewers are lucky to have Weeks, Hardy, (& Hall) as INFs, who probably project higher than just an .825 career OPS. But I'd be willing to bet that just about any GM in MLB would take Sanchez as a long-term fix in the INF. In addition to his hitting, his D seems solid. Range factors are solidly above league average, and errors are low. He seems to be a similar offensive player to Estrada, but Sanchez hits for a higher BA. Your lineup sometimes needs the contact, low/no K guys. I know we tend to aim for 1-8 of good OPS guys, but sometimes the Sanchez style can be very useful.

For what it's worth, from Bucco Blog's interview with stats guru Bill James: Just thought that might add a little pep to the discussion.... buccoblog.mlblogs.com/my_weblog/2007/01/bill_james_answ.html

Patrick I just sent an email in, given that my post was obviously a big reason for the thread getting locked. I knew politics were off-limits, but I don't consider a discussion of scientific facts politics, although I do see the gray area. I also made a comment on irony, involving religion, and honestly had no idea we couldn't talk about that subject. As far as the X-mas post, I really don't see anything riot-causing there, and am still surprised the thread was locked. I understand that a huge reason BF.net's fan forum is incredible is the close monitoring of decent interaction. I'm sure the moderators have learned the hard way that the two aformentioned 'off-limit' subjects are better to avoid, but I just wish Brian would have warned us, as opposed to instantly locking the thread. I feel, given the circumstances, that would have been the appropriate action.

Wow! Thanks, endaround, BSCR, & deeswan http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif The new guy now has found a much better and objective way to assess offensive performance. I still think there's value in the XBH%, but that's in its breadth (ie. displaying the value of an Overbay or Hall, etc). ISP is an efficient and simple stat. I knew there'd already be something out there! Thanks again guys.... [removes toe from 'Statistical Analysis' pool]

Thanks, endaround! How, precisely, does it keep the differentiation intact? I guess I'm a litte confused about that. I know I'm a newbie to these stats, but I'm trying http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

So what about a stat that measures the rate at which a player drives the ball for extra bases? I know SLG% adresses this, but it also accounts for singles (which are by no means bad). I'll call it XBH%. It's simplistic, which may make it less useful, but IMHO, I don't think so. XBH / Total Hits. Bill Hall's 2006 rate was .538 Albert Pujols, in an injury-shortened 2006, put up .467 His 2005 rate, when he played all but one game, was .415 I know this stat has a 'Russel Branyan/Jose Hernandez lean', in that a player with a terrible BA could conceivably lead the league in XBH%. (The Hernandez mention refers to Jose's incredibly high BA when putting the ball in play -- when not K-ing) But I think that, as with any stat, taken with a grain of salt - and used in corellation with other stats, namely BA - XBH% can be very effective. IMHO, it's similar to FIP for pitchers, in that it takes the batter's teammates out of the equation (where RBI & R rely on others, and are sort of 'time-honored' stats --- which I do happed to find useful) I'd love to hear some thoughts on this, or just someone telling me, "Hey, dummy, it alread exists, and it's called _____"

Ryan and trwi7, there is no ____ way the Yanks trade Hughes. I follow them closely enough to know that, if we're talking about giving a pitcher to get Hughes, the only one that'd get it done by himself would be Sheets. I'm not joking. This is their YoGa, and you all know how much hype explodes a player's value in that system. Trouble is, the hype is legit: Hughes can whirl. I completely disagree with the original post to start this thread. Trading away pitching now, on the verge of big things in Milwaukee, is taking a backward step. I know steps backward can lead to bigger steps forward, but I just don't see that here.