The other issue is how do you count/track an AB where a bunt attempt is made on strike 1 and 2, then the hitter swings away and Ks are makes an out. Trying to bunt puts hitter in the hole 0-2, greatly decreasing odds of getting a hit or even advancing the runner for the rest of that AB. Bottom line, basically an unsuccessful bunt attempt but stats wouldn't count it that way. So, if you include that in any analysis, I would bet a sacrifice is successful at 70% at the very most and maybe close to 60%. But that's all we have to go on, opinion. But no matter how you slice it, bunting (generally speaking) is not the best choice outside of pitchers, of course. There are times where it's closer to a 50/50 call, but as others have said it comes down to game situation, who's up (and their ability to bunt) who's behind them in the order, etc. For example, the Pina non-bunt the other day was pretty close to 50/50 in my opinion. Close enough that I don't think either choice would have been "stupid" or "crazy."