FVBrewerFan
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Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
FVBrewerFan replied to anglotiger's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The saying you're looking for is "Don't count your chickens until they're hatched." Do you see now it wasn't a given Nelson was going to start Opening Day, pitch better than ever his year, and win the Cy Young? Optimism is great, blind optimism is not. -
Sorry, but that doesn't make any sense. Does that go for every team or just the Brewers? Because he's going to sign somewhere.
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Have you seen the results of leaning too heavily on relievers? Knebel's elbow is probably toast, Jeffress was not 100% in the playoffs last year and is having shoulder issues. If you want an example that isn't Brewers, the Cubs entire bullpen was basically trash the last month and a half of the season. The only good reliever they had was Chavez, who was traded for in July/August and therefore not yet ruined by Maddon. Everyone else was either bad or hurt. Overusing the bullpen has consequences. That is really unfair to the Brewers. There is no evidence Knebel was over-used last year. Pitchers have elbow issues all the time. Starters, relievers, limited innings, lots of innings. Was Suter over-used? Nothing but a convenient thing to say now, but there is nothing to support that cause and effect. Really a bad thing to throw at the feet of the Brewers organization. Brewers used their pen a ton, and will again. But they're using 20+ guys to cover those innings, nobody is being over-used.
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If all we can hope for is 5 innings from 3 of our 5 starters, the bull pen is going to go to hell quickly. There is no way that a bull pen can be used like we did in September last year for a full season... Forget September, look how long starters went all of last season. You would agree Chacin was the workhorse last year, if you had to pick a guy? He averaged 5.5 innings per start. I don't expect the young guys to average the same/more innings per start. They're actually better equipped to handle this in the pen this year, more guys who can go multiple innings.
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That's my understanding as well. No way of knowing for sure, just something that is rarely publicized. Good point about career ending injury being necessary for pay-out, forgot to mention that earlier.
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Opening Day
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Not many "shining moments" the first day, hopefully today brings more thrills.
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This is a very realistic look at things. The 3 young guys have talent, and it will be fun to watch them develop. I just fear some are expecting them to all be aces this season. The time is now, I don't disagree with giving them the opportunity. I've seen a couple dozen starts come up through the system that got hurt, derailed, traded, etc. So I'm really looking forward to watching these guys. In addition to the concerns above, they are all really going to struggle to get through 5 innings let alone 6 or 7. My hope is by 2020 2 of 3 will have the training wheels off completely and be really solid starters. Call that an ace, #2, TOR, whatever, that's semantics. But for this year, I would be fine if they just held their own for 5 innings. It would be a plus if one of them can consistently get in to the 7th inning.
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That insurance is incredibly expensive. Especially for pitchers, and even moreso for older pitchers. Highly likely the Brewers don't always buy insurance on players, and probably wouldn't for Kimbrel.
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Yes agree, stearns had 2 days to get Kimbrel signed before Knebel “dead arm” lie got out. Price either stayed firm or went up since then. If we want him we are going to have to give him 3+ yrs like I’ve been saying all along or maybe but I doubt it 1 at like 22. Everyone already knows what I’d do. Stearns drivin by analytics so prob won’t budge. Which I know will make a lot of you very happy around here. My take here is stearns can prob make pen work without Kimbrel as most of you say, but IMHO Kimbrel’s value is strong enough to warrant 3-4 yr deal. IF goes south stearns can rid of him w/o much if any damage. We have the $, what’s the downside? He could get injured and/or fall off the cliff the next couple seasons and the Brewers would be stuck paying a ton of money for multiple years on a player that isn't helping them and no longer has any trade value. Not even saying whether he's worth that risk or not, just responding to your question.
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"Went well." You mean CC didnt say "Hes just not looking good, its panic time around here!" When are we ever going to ignore these generic comments??
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Im not a fan of MU, nor root against them. So an objective opinion. Is Wojo just a bad coach? Seems they recruit talent, some guys leave, then never really accomplish anything. Then the nose dive at the end of this season. Just seems like its coaching, but I dont watch many MU games.
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Yea, sorry, didnt mean to bash Anderson. Just my own issue, whenever I hear team first guy I think of other terms like scrappy guy, veteran presence, etc. Just empty phrases. Anderson may be the best guy a coach could ever have. He could be a jerk behind the scenes. We dont know, so why worry about. I do know players who were seen publicly as team guys, and were kerks in the clubhouse. Either way, hes sent to the bullpen and smart enough not to make a stink about it publicly.
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Anderson is another team first guy. I think he’s going to take to the bullpen like the proverbial fish to water. Uptick in velocity out of the pen certainly won’t hurt, he’s got good stuff he should do really well. Just as I never believe initial injury reports, I also never believe any "team first" stuff. Some players are very good at PR, some are not. Anderson could be (probably is) a team first guy, but for all we know he hates the idea of going to the pen.
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Very interesting it looks like they're keeping Woodruff, Peralta, and Barnes in the rotation. Any one of those guys could have been a really effective late inning reliever. Maybe they're close to signing Kimbrel, or maybe they're going to go with no closer and see if anyone steps up and grabs it. Maybe Turnbow is still out there somewhere. Also odd that Anderson is in the BP, doesn't seem like his value is there. His value comes from when he has games where he's really on and give you 8-9 innings. Better off keeping his stretched out in AAA.
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Not 100% sure of college rule, but it would almost have to be a tech. No way could it just be play on, as they're not supposed to be on the court.
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Well, there is a difference between a leg injury and an arm injury when it comes to a pitcher. For every over-reaction there is an equal and opposite under-reaction.
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I'm not calm at all. I assume bad news whenever a pitcher has any issue with the arm, until proven otherwise. Jeffress and Knebel are not going to be pitching on opening day, and that's the floor for potential problems. One or both may be out for extended period of time. Nothing I have heard yet tells me that's not a real possibility. Nelson has yet to prove he can come back and stay healthy and consistently have good outings over a period of time. Davies and Anderson are a big concern. Three "young" starters who have yet to prove they can be reliable starters over the course of an entire season. That's the glass is half empty take, but I'm not real comfortable. Not to mention the season hasn't even started, and there will be more of this to come. Even if everyone was healthy and effective, I don't see the downside with signing Kimbrel. It's not a problem for me to have too many great pitchers on the staff. Might be tough on Mark A's billfold for a couple years, but he can live with that.
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No. No, they do don’t. Agreed with Brew4U. Man if those 3 guys are unproven, what exactly does a guy have to do to become a proven talent? All 3 of those guys are probably in the top 5 of our most talented starting pitchers. All 3 probably won't break with the rotation due to other factors, but they probably all deserve it. James Shields would be a silly signing. He's just not a good pitcher anymore. His best bet is to grind it out with a rebuilding club on a low $ deal and hope to have a good enough first half to get traded to a contender looking for depth. Answer: Be an effective starter for at least one entire MLB season, which none of them have. I don't want Shields, I want these 3 guys to be in the rotation. But let's not pretend they're proven.
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I don't doubt that it's real, that the Brewers have been talking to Kimbrel's agent. Just my semi-annual reminder Stearns is constantly looking to make a deal, and will talk to just about anyone who makes sense. But only a small minority actually happen. If he gets a deal he thinks makes sense, he will get it done. I doubt that will be the case here, but not impossible.
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The same time Giannis turned into Brogdon at the line.
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Hope Im wrong, but will be shocked if hes not a Cub by opening day.
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I'll grant you that part. When Baldkin pointed that out, he is better by comparison than I would have expected. But putting up 4+ 3P a game is still a pretty high volume. Just a matter of where you want to cut if off. All that said, I still don't think that's elite. For example, I would consider Brogdon elite. Fewer attempts, but maybe that's why he's elite- better recognition of what/when is "his shot."
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He's 12th in the league in percentage for guys who shoot more than 6 3's a game. He is an elite 3 point shooter. He's also 108th in the NBA in 3P%. Yea, that's a misleading stat, but so is a fabricated "6 3s a game." How about using 4 or 5 a game? Because then he doesn't look as good. He is not elite.
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Which Wisconsin sports team will win a championship next?
FVBrewerFan replied to adambr2's topic in Other Sports
+1 and exactly for those reasons. I would slide Badgers Football #3 after Bucks/Packers. They've been in that "next" group for years and if this new QB is the real deal they have a legit shot. Badgers/Warriors BB I put last, just too many teams.