logan82
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Everything posted by logan82
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Wife came home without Dancing Man Wheat yet again. Here I am with half a month gone in the 3 month window without my beer. Very disappointed.
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There is a thread with links to almost any resource you might need for baseball. Link There is a link to it at the top of almost every page in the forums. Fan Sites / Resources
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Portland has a AAA team right now. TLB could probably weigh in on how they draw. I wouldn't care how stuff got lined back up as long as we didn't end up in a division with the Cali teams. Those trips out west are brutal with all the late night games.
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I don't like the blanket statement about not stealing. Something is "off" about our base stealing this year. I don't know if it is Macha taking more/less control over the running game than Yost, players not being as good at stealing bases for some reason, or making poor choices on when to steal. I agree that Hart, Weeks, and Cameron should have a green light to go when they want or a stop. I think maybe Weeks hitting for more power and Hart not getting on base much over the last month has made things look a little worse that they really are. I'd much prefer to steal a base in the seventh or eighth inning when we really need it as compared to just looking at raw numbers and saying, 'These guys are stealing a lot of bases. A caught stealing really hurts in those situations as well. I would prefer him trying to find out what is going wrong instead of not trying to steal anymore.
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If we could get him for a good price, I would love an extension for Weeks. If he is going to walk we need all of Escobar, Gamel, Green, and Lawrie to become good MLB players. While I think that is a good possibility, signing Weeks would give us the ability to trade one of those guys for another need and give us a little leeway for injuries or poor performance from those guys. If we are going much over $10M in any year of a contract to Weeks, I think we should pass. If Weeks can keep up the quality of defense he had last year and so far this year, he is at worst a league average player. He really needs to get his OBP over .340 or I consider him very disappointing. He needs to be above his .352 career OBP and preferably in the .360+ range for me to be happy with his production.
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Mariners Sign Russell Branyan (1 Year Deal)
logan82 replied to ttsather's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I seem to remember he doing this several times though I can't recall any others than Clark at the moment. There was a catcher in AAA, Borders maybe, and of course trading Ben Hendrickson to the Royals thus giving him a chance at the bigs. -
I don't have the numbers but I'd be willing to be that the sb% was up on Kendall down the stretch as well That wouldn't really prove anything either. All that could mean is that teams got smart and quit trying to steal with marginal base stealers. Now you can blame all that on whatever you want, but it's not a stretch to think that his playing in more games than he had in nearly a decade had something to do with that. Nobody said it was a stretch to blame his drop in production on playing time. There just isn't any definitive prof that he did wear down. I may have missed something, but why are we assuming that Macha's strategy is to ride him into the ground in the second half? He didn't say ride him into the ground, but I think 34 straight games at the end of the year would be considered riding a catcher into the ground. Link I am not the only one who interpreted it as Kendall likely to catch 140+ games. Link
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Split it into 2 divisions with 2 division winners and 2 wild card teams. You are more likely to end up with the 4 best teams that way than you would with 4 divisions. Wild card teams are rarely the 4th best team in the playoffs as it is. They are usually the 2nd or third best and happen to be stuck in the division with the best team.
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I don't get why the Reds let Dunn walk. Given what he signed for with Washington, he would have been a huge asset to the Reds this year. He was a base clogger.
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I think it is because he relies on weak grounders. When they dribble through the infield he will look good. When they don't, he will look bad. I think it is just random and has nothing to do with wearing down. We are seeing much the same so far this year.
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Brewers sign Catalanotto to minor league deal
logan82 replied to Nottso's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Duffy became the belle of the ball around here during spring training, and I still can't grasp it. I think it is because many don't realize he if TGJ in disguise. I believe Hall has already seen some time in LF when Braun was out. About an inning. He was out there until he strained his hamstring. -
I think we can conclude it caught up with him. You can, but that doesn't mean you are right. I agree that Kendall played to much last year. However, if he had not gotten off to a really hot start in 2008 his first half stats would have been just as bad as his 2nd half stats. Kendall is not a good hitter. I see little indication that Macha is going to play Kendall much less than Yost did last year. His strategy seems ot be giving Kendall every 5th day off for the start of the season so that he can ride him into the ground in the second half. I think we need to be open to the possibility that Kendall can play more game than the average catcher without tiring instead of just sticking with conventional baseball wisdom that says the catcher needs 30+ games off a year.
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Ludwick suffered a hamstring injury while attempting to make a diving catch Tuesday night That sounds familiar.
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Joe Morgan > Yoda How can Joe Morgan be greater than anybody? Are you talking about height?
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I think a SB adds .00033 to wOBA over 600 PA and .0004 over 500 PA. SB don't add much to wOBA over the course of a season unless you steal a bunch at a good rate.
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I thought about CS after I posted. I forgot that it was included while I was posting. Upton gets caught stealing almost enough to negate his gains from stolen bases. In 2008 using the wOBA values a CS is worth -0.42 and a SB 0.20. Upton had 44 SB(8.8) with 16 CS(6.72) which comes to a difference of 2.08 or about 4.5 singles. DeJesus really hurt his value a lot with the CS. DeJesus was a bad example for what I was trying to show with regards to walks. I think he shows another flaw in OPS. It doesn't take any base running into account. Pie is a farce. All it is, is a cruel attempt to trick people into eating more fruits and vegetables.
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Oops. Sorry, I should have made it more clear. Those numbers are for the entire of baseball (both NL and AL). No, the mistake was mine. I didn't read your post as thoroughly as I should have. I thought we were still on comparing our OPS with bases loaded to the rest of MLB.
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Yup it is. I misremembered his post.
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2008, 2007, and 2006 the OPS with the bases loaded sits comfortably above average. In 2005 it's just about average. In 2004 it's a little below average. Maybe something to do with our team as a whole improving on offense maybe?
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I really don't see the need to use wOBA in this case either. I do see how wOBA would be a better especially considering the differences in how the group of pitchers will get their OPS compared to Kendall. Probably not exactly right, but compare BJ Upton to Adrian Beltre in 2008. Both had an identical .784 OPS. When using wOBA however they come out as .354(Upton) and .336(Beltre). Upton has a more OBP heavy OPS. (Edit: Somebody feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but the difference in those wOBAs when calculated out to runs is almost 10 runs over 600 PA.) If I understand the values in the 2nd page, Kendall's (non-IBB) walks last year using OPS would be worth 10.75 runs and using GPA would be worth 13.76 runs. 3 runs in a season doesn't seem like grossly underrating something, but the percentage difference is certainly appreciable. I don't know everything about wOBA, but it isn't the difference between how wOBA and OPS value BBs it is how each measures BBs compared to how they value singles and other hits. In OPS a walk(0.25) has half the value of a single(0.5). In wOBA a walk(0.31) has about 2/3 the value of a single(0.46). So in this case when we are comparing a group of hitters who will hardly ever walk to a hitter who gets much of his value from walking, I think we will see them end up being estimated much closer in value using OPS than wOBA. More than a couple average players would. Better yet, compare David DeJesus to Upton. .818 OPS compared to .784. .354 wOBA compared to .355.
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Counsell's career OPS vs. Righties is .700 and he hasn't been there since 2005. He's currently at .967 vs. RHP. Last year was the first year Hall didn't exceed .700 OPS vs. RHP since 2004, although to Ennder's point he's not quite there this year either. The soft platoon may be the right path while Counsell is playing well, but it likely doesn't add much value over time or to the degree it did with 3TO when he was healthy. Getting the 3B OPS up .080-.100 this year over Hall's stats last year seems very doable. That has to lead to over 10 extra runs alone? The difference is that Counsell has put up a much higher OBP than Hall against RHP. Hall might put up an OPS 70 points higher, but Counsell should be able to put up an OBP 40 points higher than Hall against RHP. If Counsell is a worse option than Hall against RHP, it isn't by much. I see no problem with a soft platoon. It should help bring Hall's overall numbers up.
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I am not sure if any store makes pretzel buns. We bought a pretzel mix(Auntie Anne's) and made the loops a little smaller so the pretzel ended up bun size. I think we will look up a soft pretzel mix next time.
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Counsell has also been a solid sub at 3B. He's probably more likely to regress than Hall. Counsell is playing with a platoon advantage almost every time out. If Macha keeps Hall in a soft platoon like he has so far, that should limit how much Hall hurts with a RHP on the mound.
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Will Wes Helms Get A Better Reception in 2009?
logan82 replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
JoeHova's right, people don't boo Helms, they boo the Wes Helms situation. No they don't. Not all anyway. If I was the type of person to boo players, I would boo Helms for his stone hands and inning ending double plays he hit into. -
I think we should trade for Gabe Gross.