joepepsi

I think Halladay is signed for two more years at about $15 million per. It would be brilliant for the Brewers to avoid signing CC and try and trade for Roy. Would Hart, Escobar and Brad Nelson get that done?

It's not about punishing or dumping Hart. You have to trade value to get value. I see and hear a lot about trading Suppan, Hall, Weeks; but really, none of those guys would bring you much of anything. Hart has value now, plus he's shown a lot of potential, plus he'd be easier to replace than someone like Hardy or Prince.

Hart fills two requirements for trading a player. He will get the best return while being relatively easy to replace. Trading Hardy or Prince creates a huge hole in the offense. 26 year old ss who hit like Prime Tejada are not easily replaced, neither are 24 year old 1B who has hit 80 some homers in two years and has the best plate discipline on a team that has possibly the worst plate discipline in all of MLB. Hart's bad finish only served to emphasize what we already knew; he is a talented player with bad plate discipline. If he's going to hit like a below average corner outfielder, then the simplest way to improve the team's obp is to replace him, preferably with a left handed hitter who can draw walks. Getting average production from a corner outfield spot must be about the simplest need to fill on a baseball team. Hart's "five tool talent" will make him attractive to rebuilding teams. His hacking tendencies play to a serious weakness on this team. Another season with a lineup that finshes 11 in obp will be another season offensive regression. Trading Hart could bring a talented starter for the rotation. Finding a replacement veteran free agent or a platoon in RF that emphasizes obp will go a long to improving the offense.

Corey Hart and Bill Hall.

I think the talk of trading Hardy is a discussion for next winter. By then you'll have a clear picture of Gamel and Escobar.

And the common thread for these players is their on base percentages stink. The Tigers thought a lot of Deivi Cruz when he hit .284 followed by .302. At the time they thought he was 24 and 25, but he turned out to be two years older than that. He was done at 32 in the majors, but done as a starter at 30. Truthfully he was done a few years before that. Bill Hall is the same way. At his peak he managed league average obp for two seasons in a row. He also peaked a little early, his age 25 and 26 seasons. I suspect peaking early is also a symptom of poor on base skills. So far what we have seen from Hart, he has to hit about .300 to have an above average obp. If he doesn't change his ways next year his value will be at all time low. Then it will be there the year after that. By the time he's 29 he will no longer be an everyday player. At least not on a good team. Ryan Braun is another player dangerously close to joining this group. He has to hit around .300 for an above average obp. There is more hope though, his walk rate did go up a wee bit, and his K rate went down this year.

Technically they have all gotten worse except for Hardy. That's a pretty serious indictment of a coach if you ask me. I agree with you, Maddux should stay.

At any rate, while Lowe has had a fine career, I agree that with this defense and away from Dodger stadium the Brewers might be paying $12-15 million a year for Dave Bush type results.

Small sample size I know, but it's hard to argue 8-8 means he did a great job. He did get creative with the beleagured pitching staff and it paid off pretty well, except for Suppan in game 4. But batting Cameron first, benching the 2nd hottest hitter in September, playing Hart every game, bunting at silly times, maintaining the Counsell/Hall platoon when a game or two of Diilon/Lamb might have really helped the offense, and continuing the Nedly misguide of playing Kendall everyday, all were decisions made on various levels of boneheadedness.

Oh I won't argue with you about Fielder's defense, he is pretty terrible. But the Brewers finished 4th in the league in fewest runs allowed. They had 63 unearned runs. Here's the unearned run total of some other teams: Dodgers 56 D-Backs 70 Phillies 53 Mets 52 Marlins 59 Cubs 47 Astros 48 Cards 46 I agree with you the Brewers need to improve team defense and Prince is part of the problem. I just think you are overstating the problem.

If that were true the Brewers' pitching staff would have had the lowest team ERA in a generation!

Well then you're better off keeping Prince and applying the money to signing a pitcher. Lowe has a 3.21 ERA at Dodger stadium and a 3.99 everywhere else in his 4 years in the NL. Over those 4 years he's given up 55 unearned runs. Does that seem like a high number to you? His overall ERA with the Dodgers is 3.58, but his runs allowed average is 4.17. In 2008 his RAA away from Dodger stadium was 5.17. At home it was 2.30. Dave Bush's RAA for the season was 4.48. He's as extreme groundball pitcher as there is in the game. That must explain the high number of unearned runs. I'm not sure the Brewers have the infield defense that would keep Lowe as successful as he's been with the Dodgers.

I'll play too! RF-David DeJesus 2B-Weeks LF-Braun 1B-Fielder SS-Hardy 3B-Teahen/Hall CF-Cameron C-Kendall/Rivera Bench: Branyan, Lamb, Kapler Rotation: Yo Parra Jeremy Guthrie Bush Suppan Bullpen: Torres Shouse Stetter Villy McClung Riske Dillard

Trade Escobar, Nelson, and a couple pitching prospects for Jeremy Guthrie.

I am a lifelong Orioles fan. The only reason I have ExtraInnings is so I can watch the Orioles. I went to two baseball games this year, the Orioles played in both. At the start of the season I would have agreed with you. In fact I argued it on an Orioles forum in the Spring. I no longer believe it. Markakis is a wonderful player. He's a fantastic RF'er, maybe the best in the AL. It's true Corey seems to have more power and speed, but Nick drew 99 walks and hit 48 doubles with 20 homers. He's nearly the perfect 3 hole hitter. He's a lefty. Imagine if he had been hitting 2nd this season for the Brewers, followed by Braun, Prince, and JJ. He's played 3 seasons and his OPS has gone from .799 to .847 to .897. Only Hardy has shown that kind of growth among the young Brewers. Markakis doesn't turn 25 until next month. Hart will be 27 in Spring training, so he's essentially two years older. Markakis is probably not a HOF'er, but he's built perfect for a long career and if he develops more power he could put up the counting stats that will get him there. He impresses me as a very smart player, whereas Hart doesn't seem that way at all.

heckuva lot farther than small ball and pitching.

I think it's a little of both. And I loved the Kendall blurb, by the way. I think if media types and beat writers bought wholly into statistical analysis they would become irrelevant. The JS writers could embrace statistical analysis and judge each player's performance based on the best analysis and projections out there. But of course, any of us could that too. And we wouldn't have to travel around with the team, sit in the press room, chum with the players, eat from the press buffet, and collect outrageous expense checks 6 months a year. Anybody can sit at home, watch the Brewers on FSN every night and check the freely available stats online. So the media boys have to come up with something else; some keen ability that separates them from JoeFan and lets them keep their job; some special "insight" you can only get by sitting in the press box, choking down the buffet. They do this by making crap up. They write about intangibles, clubhouse leaders, playing small ball. And they base their grading system on non specific criteria, hinting their keen powers of observation and vast experience have more relevance than any stat. They know Mota was only as valuable as Suppan, because well, they are sports writers and they are paid to know about these things. You, loyal reader, can't possibly understand. And since it's only sports journalism, not real journalism, the editors don't care if it's a bunch of made of crap. And if some loyal readers mock them or try to argue with hard data, well, they're just pocket protecting geeks who probably never played the game and still live in the basement of their mom's house.

That's my point too. If you're going to do a trade with the Orioles then I want Jeremy Guthrie. I agree the Orioles should blow up the team, retaining only Adam Jones and Nick Markakis. Not sure I'd want Huff playing at 3B everyday though. Scott is a fine player, though he has some platoon issues. I would do some combination of Hart, Braddock, Escobar, and Nelson to get Guthrie and another player; maybe Scott. As an aside, does anyone know if Brad Nelson can actually play a corner outfield position?

I think Hart is the best player to trade this offseason. I've started a topic here and would love some input: http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=16137

DeJesus is more than an older version of Tony Gwynn! But the trade was just a suggestion anyway, a springboard, if you will. The problem with the Brewers' offense is too many free swinging hacks. Braun can get away with it, but the others, well, they seem unable to adjust when in a funk. In 1500+ plate appearences Hart has walked 86 times. He's a good player but his upside is diminished by this refusal to take a walk. It's a fact, players whose walk rate decrease from season to season don't last long in the majors. I admit that 7 week slump at the end of the year got me to thinking he's the guy they should trade. But that doesn't mean it's the wrong idea. By now the entire league should know he will swing at every low outside pitch. They need to change the tone of the lineup and Hart has the combination of most value and easiest to replace.

It seems to me Corey Hart is the most easily replaceable position player on the team who still has trade value. There's lots of screaming among Brewer fans to trade Weeks or Hall, but seriously, what value would they bring in return? I think Hart, like Hall, is susceptible to the Deivi Syndrome. Named for Deivi Cruz, these are players who put together impressive seasons early in their careers, but their hacking tendencies prevent them from building on that success and within a season or two they have played themselves out of the starting lineup. Hart can be an exciting player to be sure, but his overall rate stats were below average for a corner outfielder. An average corner outfielder must be the easiest position in baseball to fill. The Brewers need another starting pitcher, better production and defense at 3B, and more lefty bats in the everyday lineup. Hart would have value, especially to a rebuilding team, and could be a cornerstone to a deal that would solve at least one of these areas. One possible option would be Hart and a good pitching prospect to the Royals for David DeJesus. Or, a package that includes Hart and Nelson plus prospects for DeJesus and Teahen. Teahen moves back to 3rd and the Brewers have two lefty bats added to the lineup.

His power and on base rates are better through age 25 than Brian Roberts'. Let's face it; on a good team Rickie would have stayed in the minors at least another half season, if not another year or two. He only had about 850 minor league plate appearances before being called up. I think his speed is wasted in the 6th or 7th spot. I'd like to see him bat 2nd. I have no idea who could be that lefty leadoff guy the Brewers need, but with Rickie second and Braun third, I have to think Weeks' numbers would jump. I think the guy they should trade is Corey Hart. Package him and a pitcher to KC for David DeJesus. Bat DeJesus lead off.

I am saying his fine season stats are based 212 plate appearances in July and August. Had he been healthy in September perhaps he would have continued to play well. He missed 27 games this year and 36 in 2007. That's not horrible for a guy his age; on the other hand, given his age we can't be sure he won't break down more and we don't know which hitter we'd be getting; the July /August guy or the April-June guy. Your point about Prince's arby numbers is well taken. I just think this wouldn't be the best trade for the Brewers. Now maybe a Nelson + Weeks or Hart + minor leaguer to the Orioles would be something I could get behind. I'd like to see what it would take to get Jeremy Guthrie.

You'd only be getting Roberts and Mora for a year each and adding $17 million to the payroll, not counting what Sherrill will get in arbitration. Mora did bounce back and have a fine season after three seasons in decline. But this year's numbers were the result of a torrid 2nd half where he played in only 48 games and hit .376/.417/.656. His first half, when he was playing everyday, he hit .233/.301/.387 and complained to the media about criticism. I wouldn't be opposed to adding him to the team as a stopgap until Gamel was ready, if the O's agreed to eat some of his $9 million salary. But I would never trade a star like Fielder if all I could get was these 3. Your offering one of the best power hitters in baseball for Brian Shouse and two guys who are going to be free agents a year from now. Orioles would do it a minute. Melvin would get fired.

Ok, this makes sense and my comment that I agree completley with the fact that football is easy to watch and understand is not quite true. For many, I think it's easier to watch football than it is baseball. There is this missconception that football has more action than baseball. I think a lot of people think they understand baseball because they believe it's such a simple sport, but they don't.I don't mean to discount the complexities of football. It's a very coaching dependent game, whereas with baseball it's questionable how much a manager/coaching staff actually contribute. But football attracts far more casual fans. It's simple to understand at the surface; you can enjoy the action and athleticism on nearly every play without having to understand the "immense amounts of strategy". People can get together once a week with chips and salsa, some brewskis, and cheer on the team for 3-1/2 hours. Every single game is important and a significant part of the season. I think there are very few markets where baseball on TV would outdraw a football game. It's true the Favre era raised the fanatical level and numbers of Packer fans, but football has a bigger fan base than baseball, and Wisconsin has always been Packers first.