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cwolf2012

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Everything posted by cwolf2012

  1. cwolf2012
    Lorenzo Cain should be looked at as a very strong possibility for the starting CF job in 2010. We need to cut salary to account for Suppan and Hall's contracts, and losing Cameron and replacing him with a minor league callup would be the best way to offset those salary increases. We'll obviously have to see if he can keep hitting decent, but a .750 OPS in the majors isn't out of the question if his power continues to develop. I'm hoping he turns into a .280/.340/.450 hitter. That's not great, but according to his defensive reports it would make him at least league average.
  2. cwolf2012
    I was recently over at BCB and noticed that Cody Scarpetta is on the 40 man roster, but has only played one season of minor league ball and is 19 years old. Anyone know why he's been added? To my knowledge, he's not a Rule 5 draftee, so why would he need to be there? Seems like such a waste of a spot.
  3. cwolf2012
    Brad Hawpe.
  4. cwolf2012
    "Both of these numbers would go up if you took homeruns out, and, as a result, if you were to recompute your table based on these new numbers (with homeruns factored out), Theriot's true expected BABIP would go down." ------------------- Good call. I didn't look into that.
  5. cwolf2012
    To further elaborate on my LD% +.120 point, I decided to calculate my version of expected BABIP for him over the last 3 years. I threw out his 2005 season since it was only 14 PA. Here's a quick chart I came up with: Year Balls in Play GB% Total GB FB% Total FB LD% Total LD eBABIP 2006 119 0.495 59 0.239 28 0.266 32 0.386 2007 494 0.486 240 0.304 150 0.21 104 0.356 2008 525 0.566 297 0.202 106 0.232 122 0.373 Type of hit: Expected BABIP (eBABIP-ht): GB 0.28 FB 0.21 LD 0.74 Source: http://www.hardballtimes....flyballs-and-line-drives/ Key: Balls in Play (BIP): PA - (K+BB+IBB+HR+HBP) Total GB/FB/LD: BIP * GB%/FB%/LD% Expected BABIP (eBABIP): [Total GB * eBABIP(GB) + Total FB * eBABIP(FB) + Total LD * eBABIP(LD)]/BIP It's kind of messy, but to me it seems like Theriot is actually WAY under his expected BABIP so far. His extremely high LD% and GB% lead to a very high eBABIP. Feel free to take a look at my calculations and tell me what you think.
  6. cwolf2012
    I'd like to make note that there is a very significant chance that Theriot's career BABIP should rest in the .320-.330 range. http://www.hardballtimes....s/index.php?playerId=3811 His LD% is above 20% for his career, and that would correlate to above a .300 BABIP. I see .320 as absolutely sustainable for him. Now, if you want to debate the validity of that conclusion, I would welcome it. I'm not completely sold on the LD% + .12 = expected BABIP. I definitely think the reasoning behind that is valid (that the expected BABIP should be derived from LD%, GB%, and FB%), I'm just not sure how accurate LD% +.12 is.
  7. cwolf2012
    To give you an idea of why I say he's wearing down: He was 26 and 27 years old in 2007 and 2008. The average peak years in baseball are 27-29, so before that, you should be getting better. But due to his ridiculously high workloads, he's already showing symptoms of decline, especially in the last two years. Here's the breakdown of his Pitcher Abuse Points rank in the last 6 years: 03: 11th 04: 3rd 05: 2nd 06: 2nd 07: 2nd 08: 7th He's been WAY overworked, and as such, is starting to decline at an age when most players peak. That's what we mean when we say Z is wearing down.
  8. cwolf2012
    "If Bradley plays 125 games and Marmol is healthy, there's no team in this division that's within a dozen games of the Cubs." ---------------------------- I don't agree. Although I'm pretty sure it was hyperbole, them being a dozen games better than the next team means you think that the cubs will win something like 95-100 games, and no one else in the Central will win more than 85. I think it's a pretty difficult argument to make that the Cubs will be as good as they were last year on offense. Bradley was a good addition, but Edmonds carried an OPS of .937 with the cubs, and played a more premier position. Bradley will be mediocre on defense and is unlikely to top that production. As has been said, pretty much everyone in the infield was above career BABIP. The offense will still be good for them, but not as good as last year. Their defense will also be worse. It's also pretty tough to think they'll be better on pitching with Dempster highly unlikely to repeat last year, Z getting worn down, and Harden being made of glass. Also, Kerry Wood was absolutely lights out for them. Kevin Gregg has to be at least a win or two worse than Wood.
  9. cwolf2012
    He's only had one good season in the minors, and everything else has been mediocre to bad. At 25 years old, he should be shredding people in the minors. His last two seasons combined average out right to his career norms in the minors, which is an above 4 ERA and about a 1.4 WHIP. That is not very good. Like I said, if he gets a shot before DiFelice, I'm going to be angry.
  10. cwolf2012
    If Mark DiFelice isn't going to be relieving for this team, I'm going to be FURIOUS if Luis Pena is. http://minors.baseball-re...com/players.cgi?pid=26032 49/47 K/BB last year with a 7 ERA and a 2 WHIP. Career 4.15 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in the minors. This guy will never touch the majors, and never should.
  11. cwolf2012
    I would support him getting a shot if one of our starters is struggling. SPs have so much more value, and if he can be a 4 ERA starter or a 3 ERA reliever, I'd take the starter any day.
  12. cwolf2012
    Most knuckleballs thrown?
  13. cwolf2012
    I'd take Chuck James. Yeah, he was awful in all 26 innings he pitched in the majors last season, but he's 27 years old and he did reasonably well in AAA last season. If not him, then Perez. The other two don't interest me.
  14. cwolf2012
    I was born in late May, but I prefer the winter (usually). Much like Needmorefans, I've started disliking the winter more as I age. I'm a hockey and racquetball player, and those tend to be winter sports, or at least more people play them in the winter.
  15. cwolf2012
    How does this contract affect his trade value? I almost think it improves it. Stability is a nice thing for a contract.
  16. cwolf2012
    It all depends on what you're using it for, as stated earlier. If you're going art type stuff and you're not computer-literate, definitely go with a MAC. Since I'm in a technical field for IT, I tend to stick with PCs, as while they are more unstable, they are typically able to do a considerable amount more as far as customization and power. I also recommend PC if you're big into PC gaming. Does anyone know if Onenote '07 is available on Mac? It's one of the best note-taking programs I've ever seen, so I recommend that if it's PC only.
  17. cwolf2012
    The Badgers had a couple opportunities like that on Saturday and just whiffed on the puck. I also remember a situation where somebody had about 1/4 of the net to hit and all the time in the world to shoot and he put it right into the goalie's glove. This team is tough to watch at times.
  18. cwolf2012
    If it takes Jeffress, then I pass. He's the only chance we have at 5 years of cheap, very good pitching.
  19. cwolf2012
    Z, you're not accounting for Gallardo as part of the teams future expectations. He came back in mid-april, and was expected to pitch the rest of the season. That is what pushed us from an 83 win team to an 87-88 expectation. The 2008 starters you project there would not be an 85 projected wins team, not even close. Also, Villy was supposed to be a better starter than he actually was. Also, it's been made pretty clear that Hart, Fielder, and Braun are not going to be their 2007 selves. That was one of the reasons the projections were so high going into last season as well. While I expect those guys to play better this year, the lack of a backup ace coming in in mid-april isn't there this year.
  20. cwolf2012
    So here's my guess: Blindfolded tightrope walker, uses the music as a cue for when she's done. The playback skips/freezes, and she thinks she's all the way across. So she steps off and falls to her death.
  21. cwolf2012
    The guy carried an OPS of .690 in the minors. He's hitting just like he should have been all along right now. I have no idea how he strung together 2 good seasons of hitting against major league pitching.
  22. cwolf2012
    Was she blind/blindfolded?
  23. cwolf2012
    Was the music from a band? Orchestra? Was the woman using the music as a cue?
  24. cwolf2012
    Are a lighthouse or an evil twin involved?
  25. cwolf2012
    That and Parra had a .336 BABIP to Floyd's .268. And a better HR/9. And a better GB%. That makes for Parra being significantly better after regression to the mean.
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