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cwolf2012

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Everything posted by cwolf2012

  1. cwolf2012
    The thing that sucks about the labor agreement is that many of the controlled guys are paid too little and the FAs are paid way too much. They talk about how the guys who sell the seats only get paid league minimum being underpaid, but anyone who is good enough to earn much more than league minimum that early in their career is probably going to get PAID in FA. The average major leaguer may only last 6.85 years, but if they were only going to last 6 years they probably wouldn't get paid that much anyway. Still, arbitration + controlled salary is a good thing. Unless they somehow start using a salary cap, I don't see it changing. It gives smaller markets a chance to keep up with big markets and creates a far more interesting (albeit unfair) economic system within the sport. It's more like a real-world business than any other sport.
  2. cwolf2012
    Hart would not be and is not a good leadoff hitter. He fits perfectly in the 5 spot with his low OBP but high SLG. High average with speed != good leadoff hitter. Weeks is the closest thing we have to a leadoff hitter, with good OBP skills (having an OBP .100 higher than your BA is very good) and speed. The issue is that his approach seems to have changed a LOT since the minor leagues. He has all the talent in the world, the Brewers just have to find a way to get it out there. EDIT: " I think the state heads here greatly over-emphasize OPS and under-value OBP when it comes to the lead-off spot." I am pretty sure all the stat heads strongly agree that OBP is far more important than SLG, especially for a leadoff hitter. The big issue is that his OBP is still only .320, which is still below league average for the leadoff spot. The point of this is to try and find a spot for Weeks to hit where he is productive, and find another person to replace him at leadoff. Counsell would have to play 2B if he were playing every day and leading off, and then it would defeat the purpose of the experiment. Counsell is a spot-utility player. He doesn't have the capability to play every day. If Kendall were batting .290, his OBP at that point would make him a great candidate to lead off. But that's never going to happen. He's not good enough to bat that well.
  3. cwolf2012
    "I think there is a way that the Crew make the playoffs. 1) Harden must go down. I think the chances of this are better than 50/50. But really the Cubs could implode. 2) Dempster's been great, but he could really get a dead arm racking up innings. Being an ex-reliever (even though he was a starter) might cost him down the line. 3) Wood and Marmol get cooked. Abuse in Marmol's case and arm/shoulder problems in Wood's case. That's a lot of ifs, but I think it's plausible. " Plus, you know, the wild card. They could probably make the playoffs with the wild card.
  4. cwolf2012
    Does the wild card always play the team with the best record overall? Or do they just go by wins when seeding the playoffs? In most sports, winning a division is automatically ahead of any wild cards.
  5. cwolf2012
    "I expect [Rickie's] average to steadily climb because he is hitting for a very low BABIP right now." His BABIP is at .254, which by his current statline is only about .06 below expected. His Line Drive % is down to 14%, and the generalized formula for expected BABIP is .12 plus LD%, which is about .260. If Rickie gets back to his career average LD%, we can expect him to improve his BA significantly. If he can't, then he won't get much better. The major problem with the Brewers hitting is the lack of a true leadoff hitter. Rickie has raw power, and fits much better deeper in the lineup. The guy who most closely resembles a leadoff hitter is Kendall, and he's just not good enough to be leading off. I guess we could use JJ instead, but really, that just creates a hole at #2 which we can't really fill either.
  6. cwolf2012
    Brewers win the NL Central with 119 wins. The rest don't matter.
  7. cwolf2012
    this should be all you really need to see. the guys on the field think he is good. they are generally closer to the action than the fans The fans have instant replay and close ups from different angles. They have a MUCH better view of the action.
  8. cwolf2012
    "Any time a player is happy at all about a trade, he'll talk about how great the new team and city are. It's posturing and salesmanship. "See, potential buyers, I'm a happy affable guy who rolls with the punches and isn't afraid to go to a new place. I'm a great guy, and a great pitcher, so I think your piles of cash would look great in my bank account"." Well put. I agree. Still doesn't make me wish we could afford him any less or make me any less happy to have him on the team for a few months.
  9. cwolf2012
    "1. Weeks draws alot more walks and has a better OBP " That right there changes things immensely.
  10. cwolf2012
    Rickie Weeks is the same as Corey Patterson is essentially the same claim that Braun and Dunn are the same player.
  11. cwolf2012
    Cordero had several 1.1 inning saves for sure. I'm not sure if he had any 1.2 inning games, but he wasn't just a single inning pitcher. That was Turnbow.
  12. cwolf2012
    I think one of Weeks, Hardy, and Escobar should probably be moved in the offseason. If it's Weeks, move JJ to 2B, bring up Escobar. If it's JJ or Escobar, then it's pretty self-explanatory. I tend to like hitting a LOT more than defense, so if JJ can show that he can maintain a .280/.350/.450 line, I'd be more inclined to move Escobar. I see Escobar as a .300/.325/.375 kind of hitter, which just screams TGJ. If JJ maintains his current line for the rest of the season, I'd be VERY inclined to sell high on him. His current statline would garner a very good young pitcher in exchange, or a well-established #3 starter. I think we should make a decision about Gamel fairly soon on whether we really want him at 3B or not. I think he would obviously be most valuable if he is competent defensively at 3B, but I don't have much hope for that. If we want to stick with him at 3B, then I say keep Prince for at least one more full season, then reevaluate our 1B status. If he ends up at 1st, I'd say move Fielder near the deadline next year for pitching and bring Gamel up from AAA. Hart should remain a Brewer for sure. He'd certainly be valuable in a trade, but we don't have LaPorta burning up his backside any more, and there really isn't any need to force him to center with Brantley in AA. The only question right now is catcher, and it certainly looks like Kendall will be sufficient for at least one more season, and then Salome will be ready.
  13. cwolf2012
    Hey Milwaukee players, Two things: 1) You guys should enter the tournament so we can finally play against eachother. 2) If you don't want to, we still need a player or two to hit and possibly fill in on the field. Preferably a good hitter with some versatility. Our starting lineup is set, but we can always use a sub. Worst case, you come out and hit and have a good time. We plan on fielding a competitive team here, so I have to stress that you should carry around a .500 OBP or better in the city league. If you don't get on that much, but you can hit the ball really hard, that's acceptable too. Anyone interested should send me a PM preferably sooner than later.
  14. cwolf2012
    Playoff game rotation if we're at home. Bush/Sabathia/Sheets/Parra Seriously, if this ridiculous split stays how it is, he's our ace at home. Get him game 1 and 5 in the DS, and games 2 and 6 in the CS and WS. Now this whole post is somewhat sarcastic, but the point stands. Bush at home is nigh-unhittable right now.
  15. cwolf2012
    I probably should have thought of that. Did we get Odorizzi and Frederickson with the Linebrink picks?
  16. cwolf2012
    If Oakland didn't give up Gaudin, Beane absolutely stole the trade. With Gaudin involved, it's quite a bit closer. Gaudin is a 25 year old pitcher with a 4.31 ERA, and will definitely fit well as the #5 starter with the Cubs. I didn't realize until I did some research for this post, but Gaudin has had his best results at relief with spot starts. I think Beane sold very high on him and his 3.59 ERA this year. I think the 4.42 he put up last year is a much better indicator of his value. Gallagher has #1 or #2 potential. He could easily be the #2 starter in Oakland next year. Harden stays healthy and effective for 66-75% of his starts over the next year and a half, this trade is even to maybe a slight edge to the Cubs. Anything less than that (very likely) and Oakland did well. EDIT: I was using an outdated site for stats. Gaudin is actually a 3.59 ERA this year.
  17. cwolf2012
    The bullpen is fine if we put McClung in over Mota. I don't want to give up any more top prospects for a reliever. Linebrink was okay, but not anywhere near the value we gave up. If it takes another set of decent prospects to get a reliever and we have to drop McClung to AAA, that just seems like a waste to me. I want to see how he can do in a relief role after starting.
  18. cwolf2012
    He will strike out Zambrano 2 times in one game, then proceed to hit at least 2 HRs off him in the same game. I call it a lock.
  19. cwolf2012
    I really wanted to keep LaPorta, but I don't regret the trade. I will be rooting for him when he starts playing for the Indians. If the Cleveland manager ever comes to his senses, Sizemore third and LaPorta fourth will be a dangerous combo in the middle of the lineup.
  20. cwolf2012
    If it's going to require more than what ends up being more than 17 mil a year to sign Sheets, I would bid him farewell and good luck. I want him back for 4 years, 70 mil, with a team option of 20 mil for a fifth year. That is pretty much the most I would be willing to pay him or any pitcher. I know we all love him and it seems that a lot of people on this board think 20 mil is not a big deal, but it is. That's an absolutely unreal amount of money to pay a pitcher who has missed about 25% of his starts with a mid-to small market team. Stop pretending this is play money. ARod, the best position player in the entirety of baseball makes 27 mil a year, and he plays every day. You really want to pay one player well over $5,000 a pitch and 1/4 our total payroll? Take the two picks, trade Fielder at the deadline next year for young, cheap pitching. With at least one of those 2 picks, draft a 21 or 22 year old pitcher with good credentials. Sabathia is gone no matter what. I don't care what his numbers are, I would never, ever, ever pay a pitcher 22 million dollars a year, and especially not for 5 or 6 years.
  21. cwolf2012
    Be weary of his sharp statistical analysis of the game. He will ruin your fun. Go Rays! Defeat him! EDIT: Mods, if you think this would be better placed in the statistical analysis forum or the major league forum (where it would probably be most appreciated), please move it over there. Thanks.
  22. cwolf2012
    I'm 95% sure it's not Cain. He's been reported to take LaPorta's spot at Huntsville.
  23. cwolf2012
    I can't believe Webb is the starter. He's not even the best pitcher on his team.
  24. cwolf2012
    My totally legitimate and honest prediction of 27-0 is still on the cards.
  25. cwolf2012
    I just did some research, and it's by average attendance, not total attendance. That doesn't seem nearly as impressive, except that no one beats UW as far as NCAA hockey attendance goes.
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