Maybe we need to look at the right data. Some data suggests he is pitching better than he was a year ago: Hard hit %: 2019 - 35.3%, 2020 - 30.8% Soft hit %: 2019 - 17.8%, 2020 - 21.1% Exit velocity: 2019 - 86.7, 2020 - 86.0 Ground ball %: 2019 - 53.4%, 2020 - 62.9% Fly ball %: 2019 - 25.5%, 2020 - 15.9% Infield fly ball %: 2019 - 5.3%, 2020 - 9.5% Launch angle: 2019 - 5.3, 2020 - (-0.7) BABIP: 2019 - .301, 2020 - .331 The outlier is HR/FB% (18.4% in 2019 to 28.6% in 2020), but his flyball % is down so that isn't a big factor (HR/9 was 1.13 in 2019 to 1.27 in 2020, not a significant increase). His xFIP in 2019 was 3.60 and in 2020 is 3.85. I'd take that as a starter over the course of 162 games; over 8 starts anything can happen. Maybe it's bad luck. Maybe it's bad pitch-calling, because that has changed significantly over last year. Four-seam fastball: 2019 - 31.4%, 2020 - 17.1% Two-seam fastball: 2019 - 36.0%, 2020 - 47.9% Changeup: 2019 - 7.0%, 2020 - 12.6% Curveball: 2019 - 13.9%, 2020 - 11.2% Maybe throwing the two-seamer almost half of the time has made him more predictable, and he needs to throw the 4-seam and curve more often. Maybe the changeup and two-seam have similar sinking action and makes them easier to hit. What it looks like is the change in pitch selection has resulted in fewer strikeouts and more balls in play, and the balls that have been put in play - while softer in contact and much more on the ground than in the air - have found holes in the defense for an above-average hit %. And that's more luck and coaching than his skill set.