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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    A big reason for the optimism around Santana was that 2017 was his age 24/25 season, so he was still a couple of years before his physical peak, and he also performed reasonably well the year before in his age 23/24 season. It's not like it was his age 27/28 season. While still high, his K% decreased from 2016 to 2017, his BB% increased, and his ISO increased. He still had some projection left (and still does). (Not to derail this any further, but like MNBrew said not only does Choi not belong in any Braun discussion but Broxton doesn't either. Broxton is a CF and Braun never has been. When it comes to roster construction, those two are mutually exclusive.)
  2. LouisEly
    And I didn't want to watch Sports Center this morning because I had DVRd the game and didn't want to know the outcome. Would have loved to have seen what they said. 40 points in a half... never seen anything like that at any level. And after the first half I wanted them to bench him . Buffalo is a really good team, and a team whose quickness and defense would have given Marquette fits in years past. This year's team is becoming special. Theo John is a beast, Joey Hauser is starting to find his stroke, Morrow and Chartouny have added solid depth, and they should get Greg Elliot back soon. You know it's a deep team when Heldt rarely sees the floor. Wisconsin, Buffalo, and K-State all top-20 teams, played the consensus #1 team in the nation Kansas tough, Louisville is never a slouch, and UMBC beat Virginia in the tourney last year. They could make a legit run... as long as they aren't the 4/5 seed in the same region as Kansas. Looks like a down year for the Big East though. Will help minimize the losses, but hurts the strength of schedule.
  3. LouisEly
    If you are going to use Aguilar's 2nd half as a predictor of future performance, then you have to use Braun's 2nd half (.879 OPS) as a predictor of future performance as well.
  4. LouisEly
    What do you want to bet that any pitcher acquired from the Mariners has a really high spin rate on his breakingballs? Brewers needed some LH balance and got some. We'll need to see who else is included.
  5. LouisEly
    I get that the Pro Bowl is mostly a popularity contest, but Linsley hasn't been around long enough and isn't a household name enough where he gets named essentially the 3rd best center among 16 NFC teams simply because of popularity. He is above average. And I'd argue that you have no idea what the line calls were for those plays and who was responsible for who, and that if you watch enough other teams/games you'd see the same thing as much if not more.
  6. LouisEly
    More of a Josh Gordon-esque renaissance: Josh Gordon suspended indefinitely for violating terms of conditional reinstatement
  7. LouisEly
    This is why: Josh Gordon suspended indefinitely for violating terms of conditional reinstatement
  8. LouisEly
    Or a team who is a legitimate World Series contender. A's and Giants don't fit that description, but I know another team who was one game away from the World Series and plays in a mostly weatherproof stadium...
  9. LouisEly
    A first-rounder only in technicality as I recall him being a pure "signability" pick, and the last top-10 pure "signability" pick before the bonus pool rules were implemented in 2012. This was the Padres comp pick from not signing Karsten Whitson the year before (colossal mistake by Whitson to not sign) so they had to draft someone who would sign or they lost the pick. Similar to Jed Bradley, who was the Brewers comp pick for not signing Dylan Covey the year before, a pick who had to sign or be lost.
  10. LouisEly
    Given the extreme unlikeliness of playing in the NFL, this could very well be it for Hornibrook's career. Given the number of other Badgers who have walked away from football due to concussions, you have to wonder if it's worth it to try to come back. You also have to wonder if he came back too soon and that 2nd concussion is the one that did him in. I'm pretty sure that if a kid gets hurt playing football he keeps his scholarship but doesn't count towards the scholarship limit, so there's no academic incentive to keep playing.
  11. LouisEly
    Therein lies the question - which is more important for him, playing on the West Coast or playing for a contender? I'd think that the general perception is that the Brewers have a much better chance than the A's of making the World Series next year. Same with Cubs, but the Brewers can offer a mostly weatherproof stadium, unlike the Cubs. I'd prefer a LH 2B stopgap (Murphy), but it's going to be difficult to beat Tulo for about league minimum.
  12. LouisEly
    Can a team add incentives to the contract to give said released player a possible higher income?
  13. LouisEly
    If Garrett Cooper is #17 I wouldn't say that they have a lot of prospect talent. Rankings are simply that; they sometimes only tell you who the tallest midget is. And if Yamamoto is behind Cooper at #21 I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in that list. Yamamoto was hurt part of last year, but when he came back he put up some very good numbers (K/9, K/BB, HR/9, FIP, xFIP).
  14. LouisEly
    If neither Williams nor Barnes are good/consistent enough, then what does that make Lyles (who walked 9 in 16.1 IP for the Brewers last year)? How are you going to determine who among them gets the roster spot(s)? Williams is great against RHB. Barnes is the best of the three at keeping the ball in the park (and his BABIP last year suggested some bad luck). Williams and Barnes both were great against the Cubs and Cardinals last year. All three have issues with walks. All three throw 97. My point is that there is no difference between them, so why take on the added salary?
  15. LouisEly
    Not only Houser, but I think they are going to move Guerra to the pen to be an additional long reliever/swing man. In a very small sample he looked very good in that role. RHRP: Knebel, Jeffress, Guerra, Williams, Barnes, Houser, maybe Woodruff or Peralta for a year or half-year like they did with Burnes... likely no room at the inn for another RHRP. They need to add LHRP. Could maybe make an argument for Lyles vs. Barnes or Williams, but Barnes and Williams are pre-arb in 2019 and will cost much less than Lyles. Lyles had about the same OPS-A as Barnes, but Lyles had a higher FIP due to a much higher HR rate than Barnes. Barnes will walk some guys, but doesn't give up many HRs.
  16. LouisEly
    Also the Bears are good. I think some are really overlooking this. Well, the defense at least. Not only are they really good... they are also really healthy. Only three defensive players on IR (one who I've never heard of), only two defensive players questionable for the game. Only one offensive starter on IR (Long). Meanwhile the Packers were without Daniels, Clark, Perry, King, Wilkerson, Ryan all on IR and Matthews questionable (but played). Allison and Bell on IR on offense. Bulaga didn't play, Jones left early with a bad knee, Cobb left with a concussion. Oh, and Rodgers nowhere near 100%. It's amazing that the game was as close as it was. It was practically the Packers second string versus the Bears first string.
  17. LouisEly
    You think of it that way. I think of it as we just gave up Victor Roache or Evan Frederickson. Or Kentrail Davis or Tony Gwynn, Jr., actual draft picks of the Brewers at #39 overall.
  18. LouisEly
    Biadasz and David Edwards submitted paperwork to the NFL to evaluate their draft prospects. Biadasz could get a top-3 round grade, but I will be very surprised if Edwards does. His performance this past season, hopefully due to the shoulder injury, was not worthy of a top-3 round grade. Kaden Lyles has been getting a lot of work at center in practice. Biadasz may have told PC that if he gets a top-3 round grade he won't play in the bowl game. I would think that Erdmann is the backup C; maybe they want to have a 3rd string ready in case Erdmann gets hurt. But maybe Benzschawel is considering skipping the bowl game and Erdmann will be needed at RG.
  19. LouisEly
    Great post. I think a couple of things are clouding people's objective judgment: 1) They don't realize he is under control for three years, since almost all recent LHRP that were acquired were for one year (or got cut after one year). They've been conditioned to think that LHRPs will only be around for a year. B) The recent underperformance of LHRPs - Logan, Jennings, Cedeno, etc. People have been conditioned to think that LHRPs are going to put up mediocre numbers at best because that's what has happened recently. This isn't about acquiring a LHRP for a fairly high draft pick. It's about addressing an area that has a lack of depth with a solution that fits their competitive window (next 3-4 years).
  20. LouisEly
    So where was Bello on the Brewers board?
  21. LouisEly
    In order to generate "extra bonus pool money", they have to draft a player that isn't worth that slot. They have to draft a player that is more like #60 in order to sign him for below-slot value to generate extra money to sign other picks. What's the track record for the #60 overall selection in the draft? Micah Bello was the #73 pick in the draft. In order to generate the $275K in "extra bonus pool money", they had to pick a guy who signed for $550K which is the #102 slot value. They got a late 3rd round value player, not a late 2nd round value player. Baseball America had Bello ranked #121 overall. They don't get the #39 player in the draft and extra bonus pool money. They get either the #39 player, or a lower-rated player and extra bonus pool money.
  22. LouisEly
    Depends. I look at the Mets and see a team that just needs a 3B and a couple of bullpen arms to be a legitimate contender. Picking up a reliever might be right in their wheelhouse.
  23. LouisEly
    This is an important point. Right now it's extremely rare, if it's ever happened, for a top prospect to skip a playoff game. This is likely because the team only has to win two games to be crowned national champion. What we don't know is if the same thing will happen if the playoff expands to eight teams and now it's three games to win a national championship. Now the odds of winning a national championship just got smaller, and their odds of getting injured just got bigger. Not just injured in a game, but injured in practice, lifting weights/training, etc. It's also another opportunity to look bad against another very good team/other very good players. I can tell you this - the only players who want the playoffs to expand to eight teams are the average players from the teams ranked 5-8. The elite players want nothing to do with an extra game. A close friend of mine - who was the #3 ranked QB recruit in the nation coming out of high school - told me that as a player he would absolutely not want a playoff-type tournament or any extra game; his career also ended in practice when a defensive lineman fell on his leg. If they go to eight teams and then elite players subsequently sit out, then you can't call it crowning a national champion if the best players aren't playing.
  24. LouisEly
    Calling Kelly a borderline top 50 prospect is generally fact. Baseball America pre-2018: #56 MLB pre-2018: #46 Baseball Prospectus pre-2018: #44
  25. LouisEly
    Except that Weaver isn't a soft-tosser. His fastball averaged 94.3 mph last year. Davies averaged 90.3. Weaver did have a sophomore slump, but in 2017 he averaged 10.7 K/9. Kelly was a borderline top-50 prospect and is only 23. Then there's the comp pick. I'm higher on Weaver than most. Even if they resign Goldschmidt, what's it going to cost them - at least 5/$125M? And they'll have him for his declining seasons as he turns 33 next season. Arizona is selling at his peak. The sky is not falling.
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