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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    Boy, Bakhtiari is struggling. He's gotten beat several times this half.
  2. LouisEly
    I think it also suggests the Packers will be active in free agency. If they lose HHCD but sign free agents, those will offset and they won't get a pick for losing HHCD. This way they get a guaranteed pick, and can sign free agents.
  3. LouisEly
    This is starting to look like early 2000's NBA officiating. The "NFL orchestrates Tom Brady to win" conspiracy theorists are having a field day.
  4. LouisEly
    I don't understand holding on a running play, especially in the red zone. If you don't hold what's the worst thing that can happen, stopped for no gain? There's your Graham TD.
  5. LouisEly
    If you guys are referring to the one in the end zone tonight, he was held on the play. I find it hard to describe a guy who is 8th in the NFL in receiving yards among TEs as a red zone only target.
  6. LouisEly
    Prior to tonight Graham was on pace for ~850 yard season, which would have ranked 3rd among TEs last year. He has 40 yards already in the 1st quarter tonight. He hasn't been anything remotely close to a bust.
  7. LouisEly
    Pretty much this. If Nottingham is supposed to be a good prospect, and isn't going to the Marlins in a package for Realmuto, then let him be the backup for a year, learn the staff, get major league coaching, and prepare to take over as the starter in 2020. If Pina is average, and there are stats that show that despite some struggles last year he was pretty average offensively, there is absolutely nothing wrong with average. Boston won the World Series with perhaps the worst catching offensively in the majors last year.
  8. LouisEly
    He didn't make Terry Mickens or Jay Kearney, both of whom were drafted ahead of Schroeder that year. He didn't make Derrick Mayes, who was a 2nd round pick two years later. He didn't make Robert Ferguson either. There is an opinion that the Packers didn't give Favre weapons, but that simply is not true. From 1994 through 2003 the Packers drafted 17 WRs; four were top-3 round picks (five if you include investing in Bubba Franks as a weapon). Yes, a few late round picks did well (Driver, Schroeder, to an extent Corey Bradford) but plenty did nothing. Ferguson and Mayes were 2nd round picks and did nothing. Anthony Lucas (4th round pick), Joey Jamison (5th round pick) never made the team, nor did DeAndrew Rubin, Carl Ford, Dee Miller, Chris Miller, or Charlie Simmons, and Charles Lee only had a cup of coffee. Schroeder beat most of those guys out for roster spots, and beat out Driver, Mayes, Ferguson, Bradford, and others for a starting spot. Driver didn't start until after Schroeder left.
  9. LouisEly
    Schroeder had a 1000 yard season, a 999 yard season, and another 900 yard season. He was in the top 26 in the league in receiving yards for three consecutive years. He actually was pretty good. Not great, but pretty good.
  10. LouisEly
    Kind of like leaving the Cubs organization for the Brewers two years ago...
  11. LouisEly
    Wren is gone, but the point is valid - if the Brewers never added Wren why would they be interested in Taylor? Taylor's AAA splits have been noted, and who knows if the power is legit (splits suggest it isn't) but looking at AA: Wren: .362 OBP, .354 SLG Taylor: .306 OBP, .332 SLG If we want to add guys with inflated AAA hitting stats, I'd rather add Bethancourt and have some catching depth. Taylor isn't needed with Broxton and Ray in the system. He strikes out less than Broxton, but I don't know if he's as good of a defender as Broxton. As someone noted, perhaps Taylor fills a seat on the Majors-AAA 25th Man Roster Shuttle where Broxton is out of options, but I think Wren could have filled that seat just as well.
  12. LouisEly
    From the expected starters, the defense is missing both d ends, both safeties, and a corner. They have an offensive guard playing de. Defense hasn't been all that bad considering the circumstances. The offense coming of the Orange Bowl had very high expectations. They have certainly not lived up to those expectations. Oline has been average, Taylor looks like the 2nd best rb on the team, and our qb hasn't taken that next step passed serviceable. Don't forget, they lost their best WR to suspension, they lost their best blocking TE this year, and although Ferguson is good he's replacing Fumagalli. David Edwards has been playing hurt, which hopefully explains his poor play as he allowed a lot of pressure yesterday. All of the redshirt seniors and many of the true seniors/redshirt juniors are Anderson's guys. Chryst was trying to keep guys (Kafentzis, Stephenson, Penniston, Sagapolu, etc., were Anderson recruits) as much as bring them in. I don't recall who committed when, but Chryst was hired in December 2014 and the 2015 class was mostly in place. He brought in Hornibrook, but he was a late commit. Between the 2014 class (who would be seniors if they redshirted) and the 2015 class they recruited six WRs (Watkins, Jamerson, Sanders, Jones, Rushing, James); only one stayed four years, and he was moved to defense. They have no depth at WR; Taylor (true JR), Pryor (RS SO), and Davis (true SO) are the only non-freshman scholarship WRs they have. I imagine those guys get tired playing so many snaps, which may be a reason why they go the the 2/3 TE sets so much on the predictable run plays.
  13. LouisEly
    "Millennial date" - when two people sit at the same table in a restaurant looking at their phones and interacting with people who aren't there. I brought this up with a MBA classmate of mine who is a Millennial (they pretty much all are Millennials). I said it was rude, and she said, "But what if a friend of mine texts me? Isn't it rude to not respond?" (paraphrasing) Uh, isn't it rude to not pay attention to your date? Basically you are telling that person that other people are more important that they are and/or you'd rather be with someone else at that moment. Here's an idea... wait until the date's over to respond. Or excuse yourself to the bathroom.
  14. LouisEly
    As the original post said, he was injured during the final series of the year at the beginning of September.
  15. LouisEly
    This was his first full season after missing almost all of 2017 and most of 2016 due to injury. He was showing signs of fatigue late in the year. This year was about building up his arm strength so I wouldn't read anything into his lack of callup in September.
  16. LouisEly
    Always a fan of this strategy. Grab the guy who looked the best before he started struggling with elbow injuries. This is only slighly hyperbolic, but it's almost better to draft a guy who needs TJ surgery. Get it out of the way and you most likely won't have to worry about it again....at least for a while. Nathan Kirby says hello. He said it doesn't always work out that way.
  17. LouisEly
    Remember, 10% usage means one out of every 10 pitches, or 1-2 per inning. If you combine 10% CB and 10% CU, that's 20%, or one out of every five pitches. One out of every five pitches not being a FB or SL is a 3-pitch pitcher to me. I don't know about that. Half of the pitchers on the post-season roster are or were starters - Chacin, Miley, Burnes, Woodruff, Guerra, Peralta. I think the analytics showed a significant increase in OPS-A the third time through the order and that's what they were trying to avoid. If you have a guy go 2-3 innings he can come back two days later, maybe one inning the next day if it was two with a low pitch count; if you have a guy go five innings he can't come back until at least four days later. I think it was more about guys going only once, twice max, through the order and being available sooner as opposed to going 5+ innings and not being available the next 3-4 days.
  18. LouisEly
    Not quite. Schoop and Soria were acquired at the deadline and thus the Brewers only had to pay a fraction of their salary in 2018. The Brewers could afford them because they were only paying 1/3rd of their salary - they only cost the Brewers ~$6M in 2018, not $17.5M. It's only about $18.5M off the books ($6M for Schoop/Soria, $12.5M for Anderson/Thames). Kikuchi, who you generously think will only cost the Brewers $10M but we'll go with that, Realmuto (estimate $6M in arby), and Miley (assuming same deal as Chacin, $8M), plus Moustakas ($15M) will cost at least $39M, and increase of $21M in the payroll. Then add in the arby increases for Shaw, etc. And if you want to jettison Nelson... I'm glad you're not the GM.
  19. LouisEly
    If no injuries and no trading Anderson (which I give a 95% chance of happening), no. They have plenty of SP depth: Majors: Chacin, Davies, Burnes, Woodruff, and one of Nelson/Anderson Swing man/emergency starters: Guerra, Houser AAA depth: Peralta, Z. Brown, Supak, Derby, Wilkerson AA depth: Webb, Diplan They don't need Peralta in the rotation - he still has command issues to work on and should start in AAA. He'll be the first one up in case of injury, and I could see them giving him the Burnes bullpen treatment but Burnes has a lot better command than Peralta. If Nelson isn't ready they'll either keep Anderson or have Houser as the 5th starter; Houser is out of options next year so he will need to be kept on the major league roster in some capacity. Based on this, I don't think they need to go out and get starting pitching. Assuming they keep Guerra and Houser, they'll have two long relievers in the pen if for some reason they want to limit Burnes or Woodruff's innings.
  20. LouisEly
    Where are the Nelson, Davies, and Anderson trades? And how are they going to financially fit Kikuchi, Miley, and Moustakas (plus Realmuto's arby increase) into their budget?
  21. LouisEly
    Braun had a .879 OPS in the 2nd half. I think Braun and Aguilar qualify as middle of the order bats. FWIW, Boston is in the World Series and according to B-R.com they had the worst production at C and 2nd worst production at 2B of any team in the majors (no, MIL wasn't worse at 2B, the Brewers were 18th in MLB at 2B). The Brewers got to game 7 of the NLCS with what they had. I think you're overestimating what it takes to get back to the NLCS.
  22. LouisEly
    According to B-R.com, the Brewers were 5th in MLB in Team Position Performance by Wins Above Average at 1B. I understand the concern about the 2nd half, but the reality is pretty much every player except for Freeman is streaky. Look at Goldschmidt's performance in May. Aguilar had an .821 OPS in the NLCS against the great Dodgers staff. I think "wish" is a better word to use here than "need".
  23. LouisEly
    1) Deal Chase Anderson for minor league depth. They probably won't be able to get value for Davies since he didn't pitch much this year. Anderson, for what he provides and what he costs, will have value to someone. 2) Give Nottingham the backup C role. Pina is the starter, let Nottingham get accustomed to working with the staff in spring training. See if Nottingham can learn and progress to be the starter in 2020. That being said... 3) Explore packaging Nottingham for an immediate upgrade at C. If the value isn't there, go with Nottingham. 4) Stand pat at SS. Arcia showed plenty of signs late in the season and in the playoffs to suggest rebounding to 2017 form. And he's only 24. Some of the best moves you make are the moves you don't make. 5) Find more value for the bullpen. Maybe it's Lyles, maybe it's Guerra, maybe it's time to give QT-C a chance as a LHRP. They'll need another LHRP. 6) Figure out 2B. Whether it's Schoop, or preferably a LH option. Maybe it's Dubon.
  24. LouisEly
    You could have said that at the beginning of the season and we all would have taken it in a heartbeat. Six home playoff games generated a lot of revenue that can be used to invest in the 2019 team. And with Burnes and Woodruff ready to step into the rotation, that revenue can be invested in offense.
  25. LouisEly
    I heard that over the last 15 years or so, as many NFL QBs have come from Wisconsin as any other school except USC. Off the top of my head, Wilson, Tolzien, Bollinger, Sorgi, Stave. For reference, Michigan has had four (Henson, Navarre, Henne, Rudock - not exactly NFL starting caliber there). Alabama has had three (McCarron, McElroy, Croyle - not exactly NFL starting caliber there). Ohio State has had four (C. Jones, T. Pryor, T. Smith, Krenzel - not exactly NFL starting caliber there). Obviously most are 2nd/3rd stringers (except for Wilson), but because Wisconsin runs a pro-style offense it teaches QBs how to read the defense instead of rushing to the line and looking over for a card to tell them what play to run. That gives UW QBs a leg up on others in the pro game.
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