LouisEly

Did Gagne get a standing O when he came into the game?

As of June 22nd, George Carlin is no longer relevant. You must be a big fan of his to go off on such a tangent on a play on words. What I was getting at is that putting a big red X over his picture or writing on top of it "NOOOO" in big red letters is overreacting a bit.

Folks, I did not say that Mota has been great. I just said that based on how he has pitched in August and September he had earned the right for people to get off of his back.

If a ball is put in play, there is a 1.6% chance that it will result in an error and a 25.4% chance that it will result in a hit (otherwise known as batting average). Thus there is a 27% chance that there will not be an out; there is much less than a 27% chance that there will be a double play. Thus, over the long run, putting the ball in play statistically will result in more net baserunners than striking out. And Logan, you are right that a double play can only happen when there are runners on base; but it is highly unlikely that there will be a double play if there are runners on 2nd or 3rd and 1st base empty; thus in that scenario putting the ball in play is an infinitely better statistically than striking out. I don't know what the numbers are, but the odds of a double play with runners on 2nd or 3rd but not first has to be microscopic, far less than the odds of the opponents making an error. Sorry, but there is no way that over an entire season that putting the ball in play will not yield more baserunners than striking out. Yes, there are scenarios where it is a better outcome, but the larger the sample, the more baserunners will result from putting the ball in play. End of discussion.

That reminds me, I've really enjoyed Hardy and Hart's combined 35 GIDPs this year. Sometimes 1 out, no matter how it was made, isn't the worst possible outcome. The Brewers have grounded into 94 double plays and struck out 1162 times this season. Yes, 7.48% of the time the K is a better outcome, but 92.52% of the time it isn't. From another standpoint, the National League average for errors committed this year is 96 compared to the 94 GIDPs the Brewers have committed, so at worst there is roughly an equal chance that the opposition will commit an error as there is that they will ground into a double play. Proof - out of 6035 plate appearances the Brewers have GIDP'd 1.56% of the time, and the National League average fielding percentage is 98.4%, or teams make an error 1.6% of the time. Thus it is not statistically possible that over the course of the season a team will be better off striking out than putting the ball in play. Seriously Russ, that is a statistical argument you can not win.

What life was sucked out after the Cubs debacle was just pumped back in by the Fielder HR. That exactly what this team needed.

For as maligned as Mota has been, even including the home run today in his last 10 outings his line has been 10 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 8 BB, 8K. Heading into today his August ERA was 0.00 and his September ERA was 1.00. He has been quite valuable, and considering the run he had been on (1 ER in his previous 16.2 IP, including getting out of a bases-loaded-with-nobody-out jam that Villanueva got into) he was due to give up some runs. 3 ER in his last 17.2 IP is pretty darned good, and earned the right for us to get off of his back for a while.

(See: JJ Hardy long-term thread)

I was going to post this in the rotation thread, but I had been thinking all day that the scenarios would be this: A) Gallardo is activated and starts, but only goes until it is his turn to bat (max 3 innings). Since they are the home team he could pitch three innings before coming up. If he ends up coming up in the bottom of the first and gets pinch hit for it would not be a bad thing - that would mean they have scored at least three runs by the time he bats. B) If they do let him bat he will be under strict instructions not to "run" anything out (key being "run" - a light jog to first), probably bunt but do not run to first. I think scenario A is more likely, especially that he is unlikely to throw more than 75 pitches anyway. Like I said in the other thread, I think it gets coupled with the release of Lamb or Dillon and then purchasing the contract of Narron or Bateman and they piggy-back the start with Gallardo. Gallardo-Narron/Bateman-DiFelice should be able to get you to at least the 7th inning.

I was off by one day. They need extra arms. Bush is gassed - he's well over 50 pitches and not even out of the 2nd. They will go deep into the bullpen today and then CC on short rest tomorrow, so chances are they will need several bullpen arms tomorrow also.

DiFelice, anyone? They could also release Mike Lamb or Joe Dillon and add Sam Narron or pick someone up off the street (a la Coffey) to make an emergency start, or add Joe Bateman and send out 4 relievers for 2+ innings each (have DiFelice or Villy start and go 2-3 innings each, then Bateman for 2, then whomever is available). BTW, BF.net lists Capuano as still being on the 40-man - I thought they put him on the 60-day. If he is still on the 40 they could put him on the 60-day and clear a spot for another arm. Come game time Wednesday, I would be surprised if both of Lamb and Dillon are still with the team. Release one of them after Tuesday's game, sign someone for an emergency start Wednesday (it's the Pirates, so it's like facing a AAAA team so a AAAA-type like Narron or Lindsay Gulin would be adequate for 4-5 innings), then either keep that pitcher or release him after the game Wednesday and resign Lamb/Dillon on Thursday if you need them. That gives CC his rest to go on Thursday (and possibly/hopefully throw a complete game, resting the bullpen). They they can hold Sheets back until Saturday and either have Bush go Sunday (Bush is very good at home) and Sabathia for tie-breaker game or game 1 of the playoffs, or have CC go on 3 days rest for Sunday. My bet is that someone who pitches on Wednesday (starter or reliever) is not on the team (or with the team - read: Gallardo) right now.

A team like Milwaukee would trade a position player because they get more value signing FA bats than they do pitching. Now that is an argument I will give credit to as far as trading Hardy. Not only that, but it appears that it is a lot safer to draft a position player in the first round than a pitcher (the stockpile bats and trade for pitching philosophy). A pitcher like Cain (assuming that is realistically who the Giants would trade for Hardy) would cost a lot more in free agency than to trade for. Should neither Sheets nor Sabathia be back next year that might not be a bad move to make. I would agree though that it would be better to trade Hardy after 2009 and give Escobar another year to develop in the minors next year. But also, as someone else said, Hardy has the intangibles (character, leadership) to be a great clubhouse presence so in order to trade him I would need to get a lot in return. As much as I like Hart, I think he is still peeved about how long it took the Brewers to hand him a starting job (not saying it's right or wrong, just saying I think he might still be holding something against the organization). If he doesn't want to be here, then I think Cole Gillespie will make an adequate replacement in 2010.

If you move Hardy off of SS, you are still going to have to pay him like a SS to sign him long term. That means you have to overpay him. If Hardy is not in the Brewers long term plans at SS, they should trade him. Not necessarily true - the top 3B make more than the top SS. Excluding anyone on the Yankees payroll or anyone not yet eligible for Arby's, here are some salaries for the top 3B: Chipper Jones - $15M David Wright - $5M Aramis Ramirez - $15M Troy Glaus - $12.5M Melvin Mora - $7.8M Carlos Guillen - $12M Casey Blake - $6M Now the top SS: Jose Reyes - $4.4M Jhonny Peralta - $2.5M Jimmy Rollins - $8M Christian Guzman - $4.2M Miguel Tejada - $14.8M Michael Young - $6.2M Looks like the best financial move is to sign Hardy as a SS, then move him to 3B. Given that Hardy has a strong arm but not great range, I would not be surprised if the Brewers long-term plan for Hardy is to move him to 3B when Escobar is ready to take over at SS. Hardy has developed the power to be average offensively at 3B and I think would be well-above-average defensively at 3B. In fact, Escobar at SS and Hardy at 3B would be quite the defensive left side of the infield.

Problem is, we'll be going from the Ferrari back to the Camry next year. That statement, at least the first part of it, is part of the point. This team has the talent to be a Ferrari. Why are they not performing like one? Yes, this is the best season that they've had in years. But on paper if you looked at this team in the beginning of the season with Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Fielder, Hart, Hall, and Cameron... then add a career year out of nowhere from Kapler... and a healthy Sheets for an entire season... and then add CC Freakin' Sabathia who goes undefeated since the trade... how is this team not running away with the wild card if not in first place? Sure, the bullpen has been iffy and unreliable at times... but they still have the 3rd best ERA in the National League. Folks, the pitching is not the problem. The bottom line is, even though this is the best season they have had in years, they still have underachieved. They have the talent to be doing so much better. And that's on the manager.

http://images.yuku.com/image/gif/d5f256f9dd8b333419ecc1269b06812926803e5.gif Yost was well compensated for his buffoonery. Line of the thread right there. (Iorg) was rather meek as a player. Not according to the San Diego Chicken. He said that one day Iorg just went off on him, telling him, amongst other things to get his "behind" off the field. The article was in Esquire magazine a few years ago. I think he is more intense than people believe. Final word to Mark A., "The best executive is one who has sense enough to pick good people to do what he wants them to do, and self-restraint enough to keep from meddling with them while they do it" Theodore Roosevelt The key word there is "good". I wonder if ol' Jack McKeon can be coaxed out of retirement to serve as some type of "special advisor" on the bench for the last two weeks of the season (and hopefully playoffs). I think Yost can be a good manager for a rebuilding team that is not going to be in contention; his ability/stubbornness to stick with players despite their struggles can benefit an inexperienced team that is building for the future. Unfortunately that is not the Brewers right now. They are a team that is in a position where they need to make strategic moves to win as many games as possible, and that is not Yost. If there is as much tension in the dugout as Rosenthal and others says there is, then the change is overdue. Don't know if Sveum is the answer, but right now there aren't many options, and just about all of them are > Yost. Being in management myself, if someone above you asks you what the problems are and what your plan is to address them, you cannot under any circumstances answer "I don't know". As a manager it is your job to know; you might not be able to do anything about it and it might not be your fault, but you better know what you are going to do to handle it. Whether sports, business, whatever industry - it is the job of the manager to know what the problems are and have a plan to address them. Sounds like Yost had no plan, and if that's the case, then he deserves to get fired.

http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/dd03522f921b8b843ca21e33c9dbdac4791aba1.jpg

So 16 posts of "it's not Ned's character". Well, Ned's character is on the verge of a 2nd-half collapse for the third season in a row. If you do what you've always done, you'll get what you've always got. I think it's time for some different character.

REM - Live on the Green tour from Orlando, FL, April 30th, 1989. Never "officially" released, but was broadcast as a part of the Saturday Night Concert Series on one of the old radio networks (I think Westward One or Westwood One, whatever it was). Bootlegs can be found on eBay. A close second would be the BoDeans - Joe Dirt Car. REM & the BoDeans - two of the very few bands that sound better live than in the studio IMO.

I was listening to ESPN radio on Sirius today and they played audio comments from Lou Pinella after yesterday's game (comments aired on AM1000 in Chicago). To paraphrase he said, "I have no problem with the effort" but that they needed to "find a way to get the job done, and go out there and kick somebody's ---!" Did anyone else hear these comments? I thought the way that he worded it was magnificent. He both stood up for his players (by saying, "I have no problem with the effort") as well as called them out anonymously and generated a sense of urgency (by saying that despite the effort they need to find a way to get it done and "go out there and kick somebody's ---!"). Anyone else wish we had a little bit of this in Yost right now? I know he's a player's manager and will never throw them under the bus, but at the same time I think it is well established that he does not do a good job of generating a sense of urgency. Sorry Ned, it isn't April - there isn't a whole lot of time left to struggle and let it work itself out. You just went 3-7 on a 10-game home stand and now have 10 in a row on the road with seven against Philadelphia and Chicago. The time is now Ned, and there better be some screaming to go out there right now and start kicking some behind.

I'm not saying that relief pitching should be a priority over starting pitching or position players. I'm saying that if you identify someone who is a good relief candidate (two good pitches but can't develop a third, LOOGYs, etc.), keep them in the pen and develop them as a reliever. Guys like Sarfate and Capellan for example should have been moved to the pen earlier than they were. But it seems like they don't move guys from starters to the pen until the last minute (or until the go from AAA to Milwaukee) or they are constantly shuffling them back and forth from starter to reliever, and then wonder why they can't make the adjustment. And guys like Brad Lidge, Huston Street, Chad Cordero, etc., who were developed as relievers from day one haven't done too bad. And since it has already been hijacked, Will Inman this year has walked 71 in 135 innings and has a GO/AO of 0.68 - that does not bode well for future success, especially in Miller Park. I think Melvin sold high there.

I thought with the state that those three teams have been in the last week that you were referring to Save Our Ship.

He was referring to letting Cordero go, which in turn netted Gagne and the picks. There is some truth to giving up on the kids too early, but they haven't had much relief talent come up through the system. Adams was let go because of attitude, and he got very lucky because of a high WHIP; pitching in Petco is helping his ERA also, but he is nothing special. Eveland is nothing special, and while they did give up on Balfour too early they got McClung for him, who really helped stabilize the rotation in the middle of the season. The fact is that they have focused too much on drafting and developing starting pitching in the minors and not enough on developing relievers. Actually, they have focused almost all of their high picks on position players, but that's a different story. Relievers have been an afterthought in the minors, a place where guys are moved after they fail at starting and then given up on. Now with the price of closers skyrocketing, hopefully they see the need to develop relievers.

Looks like it is down to Green or Brantley. Tough call as to whom I'd prefer... Brantley would make a heckuva leadoff hitter (more walks than Ks) and has proven himself at a higher level but has less power, Green plays a position (or positions, if you look at 3B or 2B) that is thinner in the organization and has not yet made the big jump from A to AA. That is a great point about the injuries; the longer they wait, if someone were to have a serious injury it would benefit them to still have options. Also better for the player, as they won't have to move mid-season.

I thought it was really spot-on, but like some I want to see people prove something above rookie ball before placing them in the top 25. A top-15 pick I might place as high as #10 (depending on depth of the system), but beyond that anyone after the first round I personally wouldn't put above #25. Here's to hoping that we don't have a top-20 pick for many years to come.

I was hoping that David Welch, he of a no-hitter and a 1-hitter (both 7-inning games though) could have won it, but he faltered a little down the stretch. Aguilar was a great mention too, especially if you look at how he has settled down over the last month or so. It appears they want to reward legitimate prospects with the awards moreso than statistical achievements, but certainly Gamel and Escobar were very deserving considering the production and the level they are at.