gregmag

Well, i’m already planning to go to the Friday and Saturday games. Seems like I’ll need to get to Sunday now.

That sounds right for our odds against the Phillies. But unlike in the division, other teams are close to the Phillies in the “best record in MLB” race. If the Reds and Cardinals were a game behind the Cubs (like the Tigers and Blue Jays are with the Phillies), our division odds would be lower, because there would be more plausible scenarios in which someone else could catch us. (Of course, best record in the NL matters more than best record in MLB overall, because having a better record than any AL team only matters if we get to the World Series, and then only if the AL team with a better record is the one that gets there.) As I write all that, my 70% does sound very low. So if we are at, say, 93% with the Phillies, and then maybe 96% with the tigers and Blue Jays, and let’s throw in 97% with the Dodgers because Projection systems always love the Dodgers, what does that shake out to overall . . . maybe high 80s?

Brewers’ division odds now 99.4% at Fangraphs, bye odds at 99.3%. What we’re really competing for now is the best record in MLB. I don’t know that anyone calculates those odds. Given the greater number of teams in play, I would guess maybe 70% right now, but that might be way off.

That’s 40 PAs for Jansen, while playing sporadically and learning to catch a new pitching staff midseason. I wasn't a fan of the Jansen trade, but come on.

That is fantastic news about Wilken and Adams — thanks, guys!

Bad Payne is back, and I am sad. Made and Burke are BABIPing like crazy since their promotions, but they’re also ISOing like crazy, which in theory shouldn’t correlate too strongly.

Fair enough, but at that point I’m not sure why “shaky” matters or if it’s even a bad thing. The factors you’re describing actually seem integral to DW’s success. Throw a bunch of pitches, keep guys off balance, don’t be afraid to walk a few batters, prevent runs. Lather, rinse, repeat. It’s a variation on how Nolan Ryan pitched.

IMHO “peaking too soon” is only a real thing if you’re expending a scarce resource. The Brewers have a schedule to play. If they’re playing a game, they play to win. Same thing was true of yesterday’s game; same thing will be true of tomorrow’s game. They’re winning a lot. I can’t see how that’s anything but good.

Plus he’s a young fireballer who’s still figuring stuff out. The ump squeezed him, his command started to slide, and he couldn’t adjust. An outing like that was totally predictable, especially coming off the layoff. He’ll be fine; it will just take some time for him to develop more consistency.

This is about as fun as it gets. The lead is small enough that the games absolutely matter and will create an intense atmosphere. The lead is big enough that we don’t have to freak out with every setback — at least not yet.

Brewers now cannot end the Cubs series in worse than a tie for first place. Not that I’m expecting the worst, but that gives you a little bit more room to breathe.

Siegler, after he had to come out of yesterday’s game?

The Cardinals just lost two of three at home to the Rockies. Tanking for draft picks? They’ve pretty clearly given up.

The Brewers have joined the 2015 Blue Jays as the only teams in the expansion era with two 11-game winning streaks in the same season. The Brewers are the only team to have an 11-game streak plus a longer one.

If we give up on a guy, I don’t mind too much if he has one good year or half year and then is never heard from again (Lucroy, probably David Fry) or if he stinks before he gets better (Lauer, Houser). Or if he gets expensive, or if I love the guy we traded him for (JJ Hardy) . . . I guess I usually don’t mind when we give up on guys. One of the rare recent exceptions is Grisham, whom we traded to get Lauer.

I think the point about double plays is very important. You would also have to include other disadvantageous outs made on the bases in live-ball situations — like a fielder’s choice that results in and out at third base or home in exchange for the batter’s getting to first base. If we’re going to talk about outcomes that balls in play make possible and strikeouts don’t, we need to look at both sides of the ledger. That said, I have no idea whether it’s a wash. It’s possible to count all the events we’re talking about. I haven’t counted them, and I’m not at all confident in my ability to guess how the balance comes out.

Inspired by the lack of Brewers on ESPN’s updated list of top 50 players, I ask: What’s your Brewers MVP ballot right now? Obviously this is premature, but I think it makes for a fun discussion because I expect people will have lots of interesting disagreements at this moment. I can imagine a top five that’s completely different from mine. Here’s mine: 1. Turang: Does everything pretty well every day. Anchors the defense that’s arguably the team’s foundation. 2. Collins: The team’s best hitter so far this year, with one asterisked exception that I’ll get to, and it isn’t all that close. Premium defender at an offense-first position. 3. Peralta: Despite his hiccups, a premium starter who makes every start and usually ranges from capable to outstanding. 4. Woodruff: I know, a bunch of other guys have been doing it all year. But none has done it better than Woodruff, and it’s hard to ignore that his explosion on the scene corresponded with the Brewers’ rise from excellent to transcendent. Speaking of which . . . 5. Vaughn: I know it’s only a month. I know it isn’t sustainable. But putting him in the middle of the order has unlocked the whole lineup’s best identity. Maybe the Brewers’ most successful in-season position player acquisition ever (though I’m sure someone will remind me of one I forgot that will make me feel stupid). I recognize that elevating the two small-sample guys leaves out Contreras, Priester, Frelick, Yelich, Uribe, Megill, and Chourio (who would be next on my list in that order). Meaning no disrespect to those massive contributors, I’m at peace with it.

My daughter is starting college too, at Wheaton in MA. She is awesome and excited. I am excited and sad.

The Brewers are five games better than any other team in MLB. That seems pretty remarkable, especially for early August.

This is the best writing about baseball I’ve read in a while, even aside from how gleeful the content makes me feel.

He could be a PR front guy? You could be one of those guys who has weird biases, makes stuff up to support them, and then acts like he actually knows something rather than nothing at all. Good thing neither of you is either of those things.

Our roster is deep and pretty flat. By the numbers, running out a Sunday lineup should matter less for us than for almost any other team.

I’m fully on board with your annoyance at this narrative, but where are you getting “vast majority”? I’d say the offseason-deadline kvetchers are a loud minority. Of course, there are a lot more people who reasonably say “I don’t agree with this move” or “I wish we had shored up that position,” but I don’t get the sense you’re talking about those more measured criticisms.

He didn’t make a point about players in MLB. He made a point about players in the minors. Also, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with not knowing much about the minor league system. There is something wrong with not knowing much about the minor league system but then making a sweeping declaration about the system.

No, she’s a mound. (Firesign Theatre joke. I’m old. Don’t mind me.)