DuWayne Steurer
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Everything posted by DuWayne Steurer
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I think Santana is going to get a good 550 - 600 PA's this year unless he completely nose-dives. It's his to lose.
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Offseason Review: Brewers Best and Worst moves
DuWayne Steurer replied to patrickgpe's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
To be fair, Lind only has one year left on his deal while if Rogers becomes a solid player for the Pirates, they control him for another five years and multiple of those years will be at pocket change money. Oh, I totally get that. It's just that J-Rog was a fringe prospect himself, and not exactly a young guy, with less than 200 mlb at bats to his credit. I guess a better way to look at it is that the return for what they got for J-Rog was much better than expected. I was ecstatic to see the package they got for him, even though I was hoping to see Jason get 400 - 500 PA's this year as a Brewer. -
Offseason Review: Brewers Best and Worst moves
DuWayne Steurer replied to patrickgpe's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Best: The Segura trade Worst. The Lind trade. I'm not sad to see Lind go. I just thought, like many, we'd get more than young fringe guys. That trade didn't excite me at all. I know Lind has warts, but if you're getting a-ball and younger guys........blah. We got a better package for J-Rog (IMO) -
Seems like he found the right attitude about being on a garbage team. I (as others) appreciate his candor. But I think he can say what he wants and still be diplomatic about it. I think he's realized being in a clubhouse full of guys would be difficult when you say "I don't want to be on this team because they really suck" He didn't back down from his statement. He says "I have no regrets about what I said, I was just being honest", but he does say he has a new mindset, is excited about helping the young guys out, and wants to just get on the field, play ball, and knows that the Brewers have great fans, win or lose. Fair. Truthful. Diplomatic. We'll see how it plays out.
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http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/164925332/brewers-jonathan-lucroy-has-change-of-heart "Lucroy decides to not be quite such a dick"
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Right now, every thread is about the Brewers tanking 2016 and trying to lose as many games as possible, projectible talent vs wins, and draft pool money.
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"Devastates"? Aren't you being a little over the top with the wording here?
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The Royals are a team with an average-ish offense, an average rotation, and a really really really good bullpen. Pythagorean, they were supposed to win 90 games. Is 90 games their talent level? I'd argue it isn't. I'd say their talent level is probably 85-87 wins. They played over their heads (perhaps a bit, IMO) to get a +90 run differential, and luck (and a great bullpen) plays a role in one run/close games when you're talking about beating the spread in getting those extra wins that run differential didn't account for. Are contact hitters/free swingers the new market inefficiency? We're going to find out. Teams are going to start copying the Royals. Back to back AL champs is hard to ignore. Is that WHY the Royals won 90+ games two years in a row? I don't think it is. You don't look at "contact hitters/free swingers" as a team model...... you look at it as a means to an end because it (at the time) was a market inefficiency and a means to purchase players at less than their market value would otherwise indicate. Their predictive stats told us how many runs they would score, and that's how many runs they did score. Their lower strikeouts and contact rates didn't change that. Is it "possible" that making pitchers alter their approach had something to do with it? Possibly. I'd be interested to see the ROyals PpPA as a team. I still don't think that was a key component of their success. They were middle of the pack in runs scored..... and I think their bullpen was the key. I think the contact hitters thing tends to get overblown because it was something new.
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I looked up some basic stats, and I was surprised to learn they were only in the middle of the pack in the AL for OBP. They were 7th, and 8th for slugging. I expected them to be at or near the top in OBP. Yet that resulted in being 3rd in the AL in runs. That can't be all about stolen bases, not even close. So I looked up the ever controversial BA/RISP. Yes, they were 2nd in the AL. So I figure that, along with speed on the basepaths, helped them score far more runs than they "should have." Finally, not sure what it means but very interesting they were LAST in the AL in both walks and strikeouts. Just guessing, but seems that has to be incredibly rare. ROyals were 6th in the AL in runs. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2015.shtml Also, sabremetrically, they scored right about what they should have, using just about any formula. Quick and dirty, AB*OBP*SLG gives you 739, and they scored 724 runs, which is only a 2% deviation, and that's one of the more "dirty" formulas out there.
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Please....... We all know it's batting average. :D
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It's so weird. Last year was top-heavy. Other than Michigan State (but who's REALLY surprised when they get to a final four.....really?) there were nothing but cream of the crop heavyweights left standing at the end. It was going to be Kentucky, UW, Duke...... or nobody. This year, there's probably 20 or so teams that you can legitimately say "they have a good/decent chance to make a deep run in this tourney". Field is wide open this year. Anyone can make a run.
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Yes, but I believe you're mistaking cause for effect. The Brewers' eventual draft position will be the result of the organizational talent acquisition philosophy Stearns has implemented. The Brewers are not setting their sights on the #1 pick and making moves to achieve that goal. I can just about guarantee you that nowhere in the Brewers' front office is a sign that states, "WHAT CAN YOU DO TODAY TO HELP US GET TO #1 (the pick)?" Not only that, but I can guarantee it's not being whispered, implied, written on secret sticky notes, or anything else.
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Sort of off topic but sort of not...... If Luc gets traded, is Pinto added to the 40 man to be Maldonado's platoon mate? PInto's always had a bat that will play, and his ZIPS projections are actually pretty decent. I know he's got a not-that-great glove but he's shown he can hit, and he has some power, and he takes his walks.
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I'm going to try this again...... 1) Villar SS 2) Broxton/Liriano CF 3) Braun LF? RF? 4) Carter 1B 5) Lucroy? C 6) Santana RF? LF? Who knows 7) Cecchini 3B Or Hill or Middlebrooks? 8) Gennett 2B Definitely Hill vs. LHP
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Nobody will deny that pool money and higher draft picks are important. But scouting and development matter just as much (if not more). I think....what.....15% of all first round picks play more than 3 years in the majors? Baseball drafts are so much more of a crap shoot than the NFL or NBA drafts. Recognizing and developing the talent is more important than having a high draft pick. Mike Trout was 23rd overall pick IIRC.
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When you have a core group of young players coming up in your system, and you have a bad team at the MLB level..... signing mid-tier FA's makes absolutely zero sense to try to field a 75 to 80 win team. There's no sense in that kind of strategy at all. Signing place-holders (like MIddlebrooks, like Villar, like Carter, etc, etc, etc) is not to lose on purpose, it's to hold down the fort until your guys like Arcia come up. Gatewood. Clark, etc, etc, etc. You aren't going to go out and spend huge dollars on the marquee free agents when you're developing your (hopeful) stars, and secondly because, well, you're the Brewers, and you can't afford guys like Bryce Harper or Josh Donaldson or the like. And honestly, spending money on those guys when they hit free agency is not good strategy anyways. You don't block your future stars with middle tier free agents, and you don't sign big-buck stars (because you can't), so you sign place holder guys (like Middlebrooks, like Villar, like Carter, etc, etc, etc) and hope they perform as best they can. BEST case scenario is that maybe a few of those guys actually pull a Casey Mcgehee or Scotty Po magic act and you can turn around and flip them for something useful, or they stick around and play a role when the team is contending. Stearns is not getting these guys to LOSE ON PURPOSE ZOMBGBBQ!!! They are playing a role (and an important one) in the rebuild process. They're easy to move or let go when your guys like Arcia and Clark and Gatewood and so on and so on start hitting the show. I'm not surprised that a hack like Olney doesn't understand it.
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If Buster thinks there should be an incentive to try to win "this year", then obviously he's missing the point, not Rosenthal.
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http://awesomegifs.com/wp-content/uploads/dead-horse.gif
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We're cutting the cord at the end of February, and I was having this discussion with a friend. He said "I can't honestly see any reason why people can justify the cost of cable or satellite vs. streaming" I said "Sports" One word answer. I just have to find a way to watch Brewers, Packers, and Badgers football. I'll read Bucks box scores, and I'm fine there.
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I don't see anyone saying this or even hinting this. What people Are saying is that it gives us an opportunity to see if Santana has the ability to play at the major league level. Also to say that Davis has a unique skill is a bit of a false statement. He has power which is nice but it is certainly not unique.
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There is a big difference in a star catcher in his prime and a back-up infielder that is happy to have a job (for now). Hill was going to get paid his salary this year whether he got 650 plate appearances, got 50 plate appearances, or whether he gets cut, and doesn't play at all. The line "you never know what's going to happen" is correct. He acknowledges that the Brewers are rebuilding, and less likely to compete. He acknowledges that he wants to win. He states that competing is not 100% out of the question. A correct, diplomatic answer to the question that was asked.
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2016 Steamer Predictions (Latest: ZiPS, post 25)
DuWayne Steurer replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I also see Zips projections are a little more kind to the pitchers than Steamer. -
Morneau outside of Coors is very likely to be outproduced by Chris Carter. The last 3 seasons before he became a Rockie, he failed to put up an .800 OPS or even a 2.0 WAR. Freese would be better than any 3rd base candidate on the roster, but probably expensive. If he could be had on a one year deal, I wouldn't be opposed. Mat Latos is a known head case and a club house problem. I know some guys like guys that are "fiery club house presences" but he's not a fiery leader, he's a head case and a problem. He's a good bounce back candidate if he's cheap, but the team doesn't need a club house cancer guy. If he bounces back to pre-2015 level production, he'd probably be the default staff ace, but I just hope if they take that plunge, it comes cheap. I don't dislike Austin Jackson, but he hasn't been good for a while, and I don't think he's really any better than what we have. I certainly don't think he makes the team a contender more than see Niewenhuis or any of the other on-the-roster guys we have. Sure on Latos and Freese (with reservations). No thanks on Morneau and Jackson.
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2016 Steamer Predictions (Latest: ZiPS, post 25)
DuWayne Steurer replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The Carter and Santana projections are nice. I see Zips doesn't think we have a single left side of the infield guy who can put up even a .700 OPS. I know Josmil Pinto isn't supposed to be much with the glove, but I do see Zips projects him to hit well. Wouldn't be the worst guy to put back there for 60-70 games if Stearns did pull off a Lucroy trade. -
Glad to hear that others are concerned about team management's aim at purposeful losing to gain an advantage. I'm all for rebuilding and getting a strong group of minor leaguers to come up together at the same time, and I guess I don't blame the Astros and Cubs (now Brewers, possibly) for the route they took to get back to glory. Yet, something is wrong with the system when teams (not players/managers, who are working their butts off to get paid, stay in the bigs) are positioning themselves to lose enough/more games to gain an advantage with high draft picks and a larger pool of money to sign picks. People, it's not about making a bad major league team to get higher draft picks. It's about using your resources to get lots of young, cheap, controllable talent. If Melvin and Stearns wouldn't have made the trades they've made, the major league team would still be mediocre and the minor league system would still be crap. Relying on the draft alone to build your team just doesn't work. No matter how many times it's explained, there's going to be a segment of the fan base that feels like rebuilding is "losing on purpose". There's simply no explanation that will suffice to remove that stigma from the rebuild process.
