Jump to content
Our free agent ranking is up to 100 names, and now you can filter by player position! Click here to check it out! ×
Brewer Fanatic

DuWayne Steurer

Brewer Fanatic Contributor
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,848

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by DuWayne Steurer

  1. DuWayne Steurer
    We're turning into something. We're certainly not the Doug Melvin Brewers anymore. And as far as I'm concerned, that's a really good thing. As has been discussed before, (many many times) Moneyball isn't about identifying players that take a lot of walks, it's about identifying market inequalities, identifying undervalued attributes, and finding players who can produce positive win value at reduced cost. Is Stearns doing that? It's way, way, WAY too early to tell..... but it at least looks like that's the trend in the players he's picking up. High OBP guys. Guys that can field multiple positions. We won't have a ton of power (Braun, Davis.....a little from Lucroy?) but should do a lot better in the OBP category, depending on how much more roster building he does.
  2. DuWayne Steurer
    I like the addition. I'm not blown away. I find it odd that a guy with his frame is hitting single digit homers every year, but it is what it is. If he can OBP .350 and play decent defense he will have value. I'm not real keen on a 1st baseman who's going to hit .270 with 7 homers.... so I really hope he can play alright defense and stick at 3B.
  3. DuWayne Steurer
    Bourn has been bad 3 years in a row, is expensive, has declining defensive metrics, and has a vesting option for 2017 at 550 plate appearances. If he continues to play poorly, we'd have to eat part of his contract just to get someone to take him off our hands. Acquiring bad contracts just to hope to flip them is a terrible strategy, if you end up not being able to flip them. Bourn still covers enough ground to help the pitching staff and his contract isn't that onerous when your payroll is currently sitting at $55 million. For the last 2 years Bourn has almost been below replacement level. He's not ready to fall off the cliff, he's fallen off it. While 14 million dollars isn't a huge chunk of change, that's a lot to pay for a guy who might not OPS .600, and isn't playing gold glove caliber defense anymore. For that, we might as well just put Logan Schafer out there.
  4. DuWayne Steurer
    Bourn has been bad 3 years in a row, is expensive, has declining defensive metrics, and has a vesting option for 2017 at 550 plate appearances. If he continues to play poorly, we'd have to eat part of his contract just to get someone to take him off our hands. Acquiring bad contracts just to hope to flip them is a terrible strategy, if you end up not being able to flip them.
  5. DuWayne Steurer
    The Phillies went that route, and won a WS. THey're now a mess, and their fans refer to Ruben Amaro Jr as "Ruin Tomorrow Jr". I'm sure they're happy they won a world series, but I'm sure they'd also like to have a franchise that is set up for long term success more.
  6. DuWayne Steurer
    Sabathia is on an 8 year deal. He was really good the first 3 years of that deal. He was still solid the 4th year. The last 3 years he's been terribad. His ERA+ has been 84, 73, and 84. Assuming he continues to be awful (which there's no reason to believe he won't be), he's going to be absolutely butt-awful for half the life of his 182 million dollar contract. I'm not sure being able to afford that kind of production is a smart way to invest. Since Prince left MIlwaukee, his 4 years of production have seen a 4.7 WAR (all star level) followed by a 1.9 WAR, a -.2 WAR, and another 1.9 WAR. So he's been worth his contract the first year, and the rest of the time he's been league average, bench player, and league average. All at the low low cost of only 214 million dollars? He's in the AL, where he belongs. Hopefully the Rangers (or someone) has the good sense sooner rather than later to put him at DH, and stop wasting the positive value he DOES provide with his bat by putting him in the field.
  7. DuWayne Steurer
    I immediately acknowledged that by saying (and I quote) "I don't think anyone would dispute that having a larger budget is an advantage. How much of an advantage is it? That's obviously up for debate"
  8. DuWayne Steurer
    I don't think anyone would dispute that having a larger budget is an advantage. How much of an advantage is it? That's obviously up for debate. The Royals are back to back AL champs, with a WS victory under their belts, and are nicely set up for at least a few more years of success. If they keep building from within, they should be well set up for a nice sustained run of being competitive. They're right in the middle of the league in payroll. You absolutely CAN be successful if you draft well, trade well, and recognize market inefficiencies well. The Rays did it (and are still doing it). The Royals are doing it. The Cardinals do it amazingly well. I'd never see the point in throwing 200 million dollars at any player, position player OR a pitcher over the age of 30. EVERY team has a budget. Even the Dodgers. Even if the budget is 375 million dollars. At some point every team will say "Ok, we're losing money, we have to stop spending money".
  9. DuWayne Steurer
    I don't even know how it's possible to be -2.3 Defensive WAR at 1B in 119 games, but Alvarez did it. His defense was (as others have stated) so tremendously bad that he virtually negated his entire offensive value, and posted a 0.1 WAR, despite a .787 OPS. He was, for all intents and purposes, a replacement player last year. Just say no.
  10. DuWayne Steurer
    If you're going to make superlative statements like this, they should at least come somewhat close to being true. And if you did some research you'd know that Redmond perpetually pulled Fernandez early in 2013 until the training wheels came off and they started letting him run 100 pitches...then it was 7IP nearly every start. If you'd like to go further he was going 7 to 8 innings in 2014 until his elbow blew up in May. He had 8 starts in 2014. In 4 of those starts he pitched 7 innings. That's 50% of the starts. That's not 'every single time'. I'll state again, if you're going to use superlatives, they should at least be close to being true.
  11. DuWayne Steurer
    If you're going to make superlative statements like this, they should at least come somewhat close to being true.
  12. DuWayne Steurer
    Fernandez doesn't get them even CLOSE to being competitive. They won 68 games last year. Fernandez doesn't make a 68 win team a 90 win team. This line of thinking of trading 18+ years of cost controlled talent for 2-3 years of one guy is what gets teams like the Brewers where they are now. There's years where doing this sort of thing is viable. This is not that year.
  13. DuWayne Steurer
    Well, if you win 90 games, you are still going to have someone get those 90 wins. If you have 6 guys piggybacking every 3 days, or 8 guys piggybacking every 4 days, you're still going to get a fair amount of W's if you're pitching well.
  14. DuWayne Steurer
    Someone should play a season of OOTP or something and try this, and post the results. It would be interesting to a sim, or multiple seasons worth, and see what it results in.
  15. DuWayne Steurer
    Ok, so I did some (very minimal) research. Leaguewide (NL only) 1st time facing a SP - 684 2nd time facing SP - 731 3rd time facing SP - 771 So leaguewide, it averages out. I would still (obviously) not want this to be a blanket thing applied to every starter. And for all the reasons stated in this thread, I'm not in favor of this kind of strategy anyways, unless the league suddenly decides to adopt 28 or 30 man rosters.
  16. DuWayne Steurer
    Here's a brief rundown of our starters from last year, using only OPS against Jimmy Nelson 1st time through order - .672 2nd time through order .762 (ouch) 3rd time through order . 600 (surprising) Taylor Jungmann 1st time - 676 2nd time .750 3rd time .672 Wily Peralta 1st time .822 2nd time .806 3rd time .846 Zach Davies (small sample of course) 1st time - .402 2nd time -.948 3rd time (31 PAs) .440 Matt Garza 1st time - .673 2nd time - 1.023 (oof) 3rd time - 810 Not much of a conclusion to be drawn here..... the data is all over the place, and of course it's only 5 pitchers. Both Nelson and Jungmann were better the 3rd time through the order than they were the 2nd time through. (same with Davies, in a very small sample). Again, I don't know that this means anything....... I just think it means you have to look at a lot more guys before you draw a definitive conclusion that batters are better the third time they see a guy than twice. I think you do have to take a long hard look at what kind of effect you'd have on a guy and a team's routine before you take this kind of drastic effect to tinkering, and really really study the numbers and see if the numbers support the conclusion that you're coming to (are you really more effective facing batters only twice?) if you're going to do this, because the drawbacks are plenty, as have been pointed out (Using more pitchers daily, using your pinch hitters up sooner in a game, potentially). I'm against it. I think the better solution is "draft and acquire good pitchers."
  17. DuWayne Steurer
    And yet so far Stearns has continued Melvin's latest trend of acquiring as many free swinging, no power, no walk, low average Latinos as he can. I don't see how that strategy improves team oba. Villar walks at almost a 10% rate in his MLB service time (about a full season's worth of games). Same in the minors. He also has displayed decent power in the minors and his short time in the majors. He doesn't fit the offensive profile of Segura or Sardinas at all.
  18. DuWayne Steurer
    If someone photoshops Villar, Segura, Herrera, Sardinas, and Arcia into a Voltron-esque form, I will die happy.
  19. DuWayne Steurer
    It's funny, the quote was that OBP doesn't matter as much as strikeouts..... AB * OBP * SLG should get you runs scored, with about a 2.5 % variance. If you do this for the Royals, you get 736. The Royals scored 724 runs. That's pretty darn close. That doesn't take strikeouts into account at all. One can argue that their "contact method" played into their OBP and SLG (that's arguable of course) but at the end of the day getting on base and getting more bases scores runs. The manner of which you make outs matters almost not at all.
  20. DuWayne Steurer
    Freeman is not dreadful vs. LHP, and certainly doesn't *need* to be platooned, but he's not someone the Brewers really need to consider targeting. He's going to be expensive, both in terms of dollars, and what they'd have to give up to get him. He's not very good defensively (according to most metrics) and as others have said, he's not an *elite* first baseman, but he's going to get paid like one, starting in 2017. Not a guy the Brewers should be targeting.
  21. DuWayne Steurer
    As a 23 year old, Simmons socked 54 XBH to go along with his unbelievable defense, and had a 7.0 WAR that year. His power numbers have just dropped off the face of the earth, almost to Segura like levels. His superb defense still make him an obvious plus, but it's a shame that his offensive game took that big step backwards instead of forward like it looked like it could.
  22. DuWayne Steurer
    Agreed. I see it posted all the time that patience can be taught. It probably can be slightly improved upon but guys don't go from a .280 OBP to .330 because of an increase in walk rate. I'm the one that said walking is a skill that can be learned. I also gave the caveat that it's not automatic, but it's also not impossible. A guy that comes to mind is Richie Sexson. He walked 6 times in his first 195 big league PA's. He walked 34 times in his first full big league season. Later on he would become a guy he would regularly walk 60+ times (topping out at 98). I also fully understand it's easier to walk when you display power, as Sexson did, in spades. I realize Hernan Perez is not Richie Sexson..... it's just that Sexson is a guy who came to mind. I'm certainly not losing sleep over losing Perez, I just liked the guy's toolset. Good defense, decent hit ability, and versatility. If he could learn to walk a bit, and OBP .300 - .315 he's a quality utility guy. If he develops a bit of power (not holding my breath on that one) even better. It's not a huge deal, he's basically a younger version of Elian Herrera..... not the type of guy that makes or breaks your roster, but a nice guy to have around at any rate. I'm not sad he's gone, but I wouldn't have been sad to see him stick around another year either. Certainly would rather keep a guy like Perez than Herrera.
  23. DuWayne Steurer
    The thing is ...... walking is a skill that can be learned. You can't teach someone to be fast, or teach someone how to throw a ball really really hard, but in some cases, a guy can learn to be a more patient hitter. It's not unheard of. I'm not saying it's easy, or common, but it's not impossible. Perez isn't too far away from being a pretty useful utility type player. He's a decent defender, and he does hit well (although with little power). I just hate to give up on someone his age who has showed at least some promise.
  24. DuWayne Steurer
    Good to see Jabari back on the floor last night, even if it was for limited minutes and 2 points. Copeland.......wow. STOP SHOOTING. 1 for 7 from three in 10 minutes. Brick city. I don't know if Giannis will see fewer looks when Parker is back in full swing, but ..... is he truly a 20/8 guy at this point, because if so.....that would be awesome. His offensive game looks truly evolved at this point. Still lots of questions (obviously) especially on D, but at least they got a couple W's under the belt now.
  25. DuWayne Steurer
    2016 to me isn't about worrying about positions of need or handedness of your lineup. It's about acquiring young, cost controlled talent, and evaluating the talent that we have. Obviously you have to field a team, and you want to be as competitive as possible while evaluating and acquiring, but the "Biggest Need" should be "acquire as much young talent as possible". I don't even care if we go into 2016 with Hernan Perez as our 3rd baseman. Lets see if he can add double digit homerun power to his game. Let's see if he can be an adequate utility guy. Going out this year and spending money on a 3rd baseman shouldn't be a need. I want to see them positioning themselves for 2017, realistically, 2018 and beyond.
×
×
  • Create New...