endaround

The Pirates just failed to move a runner over to 3B. Must be Brewer flu or something because no other team besides the Brewers does that.

That's kind of the point though. Nobody is going to trade for Corey Ray, he's hurt all the time, and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire with his play when he is healthy. With respect to Burnes, what other chips do they have that another team would actually covet? With Ray not hitting and injured, Dubon not hitting, and Brown pitching poorly the Brewers have Turang and Lutz as guys teams could build a deal around for top talent assuming Burnes and Hiura aren't being moved.

Cain is actually the defensive whiz people claim Arcia to be

Still awaiting evidence of Arcia's other-worldly defensive ability.

Not sure if you were asking a general question, because I can't see where Albies is considered an elite prospect. Injury is one concern, but long-term success is another... Look no further than Jonathan Villar. The Brewers offered him an extension after his 1 very good year and he turned it down (he took the "guaranteed" huge salaries moving forward). How did that turn out for him? What if the Brewers signed Pat Listach to an extension after his rookie year... The dataset to look at is players who didn't match their initial performance either due to injury or they just were never good after 1+ early years and who did and did not sign extensions. Looking only at players with injuries and who signed a contract extension is only looking at a subset of the data. There's plenty of RISK for the team to offer these deals so early in a career and there's plenty of RISK averted by players when signing these. To ignore RISK is just foolish, but hey I can see the tendency to ignore it since there's always a resency bias and there hasn't been real risk in the USA for a generation like there was years ago with extended stock market/salary stagnation (like the inflationary 70's) or stagnant and devastating job losses like the 80's when heavy manufacturing disappeared from most of the "steel belt"... I can understand that many don't perceive risk, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Villar is likely to make over $10 m next season if he meets projections going forward (if he keeps up his start he'll likely be closer to $15m) So since the Brewers offered $25 m three years ago Villar has made about $8 m and likely $10 m next year in year 4 for $18m and the chance to enter FA as a 30 yr old and not a 31 yr old. Not sure Villar made bad choice there

Limiting it to just sluggers you have: David Ortiz Nelson Cruz

Herenan Perez 2017 wRC+ 79 Herenan Perez 2018 wRC+ 79

If Cleveland makes that trade its because they believe Kipnis is never going to play again.

This looks more like a 4 year contract spread over 5 years.

5 years is ...wow. Cain was still a great defensive CFer by MLB play by play stats last year but 5 years in this market...

We know from past moves that Stearns/Milwaukee uses a projection model similar to KATOH. KATOH really dislikes Diaz (0.9 WAR over 6 years) and Harrison(0.6 WAR over 6 years). Diaz likely gets dinged just for the 2B but Harrison was both old for his level (he is only 9 months younger than Phillips) and had contact/pitch recognition issues in high A. Now KATOH does love Brinson with a 5.4 WAR over 6 years and like a ~35% chance of being a regular starter or better.

This looks like its based upon Ray at the start of 2017 and not the end. Its also based upon Broxton having normal risk when that is unlikely. Broxton is weird in that his zone judgement is not bad, he just can't make contact in the zone. He beat out Chris Carter and his terrible year for the worst zone% for those with more than 200 PAs. Its hard to value him going forward. Its also questionable why Tampa would want a player in their prime if they are rebuilding. There could be a way to get Archer without including Brinson (I don't know why Tampa would want Santana if they are rebuilding) but it would take basically everything else. Something like: Burnes Harrison Diaz Dubon and then throw ins like Villar or Susac

A mid 3 ERA start as a #3? A mid 3 ERA starter is an ace. The way people still treat pitchers like this is 1986 is amazing.

If a team acquired him they probably aren’t so negative on him like a lot of poster here. I would assume he would start. Or they move him to CF to see if he has a future there.

Garza was fine until a horrendous August killed him. Gallardo brings consistency, in that he was consistently bad all season.

Well he doesn't strike many batters out. On the other hand, he gives up a ton of walks.

I guess this is do to the Dodgers avoiding the tax hit somehow, but it is weird. Mostly because McCarthy pitched relatively well last year, given in reduced innings. Maybe the Dodgers are freeing up space for Arrieta or Darvish?

His OBP was .005 points lower than Thames. And his career OBP is exactly the same as Thames OBP was this year. If he’s no good at getting on base then neither is Thames. Abreu is also 4 years younger than Thames. Abreu is 2 months younger than Thames

Abreu would be like a 1 win improvement or so over Thames/RHer (3.5 to 4 wins vs 2.5 to 3 wins). Abreu's projected arbitration amount for 2018 is $17.9 million. So that's $12 million for a 1 win improvement. But now you have to add in that fact that Abreu has about $20- 25 million in excess value over his contract which needs to be paid off with prospects. It becomes a very large cost for a 1, 1.5 win improvement. Better to focus on improving below average positions first (2B, SS).

Villar's 2016 was BABIP driven. He's not going to maintain a .373 BABIP. So while he is not as bad as he was last year, he is likely what his career line says he is, .256/.325/.397 with a wRC+ of 94. Basically a league average offensive player. Which would be fine for middle infield except he is a horrendous fielder. He is likely the worst short stop anyone on this board has ever seen with a UZR/150 of -18.2 in 2016. His play at 2B isn't much better with a UZR/150 of -13.6 in 2017. His bat isn't strong enough to make up for his glove. He may have a future in the outfield, but that won't be with the Brewers. His defense is so bad you really don't want him playing the field if at all possible which makes him a bad utility candidate. I see him going as a stopgap to another team if the Brewers trade for a real 2B (Hernandez, Kinsler, or Gordon).

Not sure why people think Samardzija has a bloated contract. He had a 3.8 WAR last year. Assuming 0.5 win reduction per year that's 8.4 WAR over the next three years. At $8 million per year that is a $67.2 million value. Now his age may make that a little more risky but he would likely get similar dollars per year plus one more year if he was a free agent. Cueto's contract is bloated if last year was not injury recovery but a new level of performance. But if that is the case, why taken on Cueto? If the Giants are looking to trade Cueto this offseason you likely do not want Cueto.

Broxton has some trade value. He's cheap and has team control. Super streaky, but the highs of said streaks are worth a lot to a team who maybe deals with an injured player to start next season, or come trade deadline. vs running a rth/5th OF out there not as good/experienced as Broxton is. You're overestimating the quality of CFs depth among 30 teams. Hes a solution for those teams or can be when an injury removes the starter they were rolling with. Nieuwenhuis in 2016 had a better season that Broxton did in 2017. What was he worth? Now add in the fact that Broxton's K% is 37.8% which means many teams will shy away from him. And his K% is due to him not being able to make contact with pitches in the zone which means any loss of bat speed makes him near worthless. So no team can plan for him to have value for years. Broxton is like a third piece in another trade to a team that is rebuilding hoping to catch something or acquired for AAA depth (see Brewers 2016).

That will give a xFIP- of somewhere around 95. Basically Micheal Fulmer territory.

His record is luck. You could provide real statistics in your argument though. Davies second half has been good. Since MLB changed the rules to basically kill him since he depended on the low strike (yes technically the rules did not change, but yeah..) his first half coudl just be him adjusting. If he can replicate his 2nd half going forward, he is strong #2 pitcher.

You can say that but the stats really don't back it up. his wRC+ per month goes 216, 105, 67, 122. 74. So one super elite month, one average month, one all star level month and two bad months. It all adds up to a 118 which is close to an all star level player but since it has been so erratic I can't put my finger on exactly how good he is. Let's not go overboard here. A 118 wRC+ is about average for 1B. An All-star 1B will put up wRC+ in the 150 range. Votto is 162, Freeman is 161, Goldschmitt is 152.