Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

igor67

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,710

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    3

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    As another analyst said Boston unloads a ton of money, but to what end? FA isn't loaded with premium talent and doesn't appear to be anytime soon. In which case they aren't any better off than Toronto.
  2. igor67
    I guess I'd argue this is good for baseball. This isn't one team acting as another's farm system. In part because this is so unusual it opens possibilities of the big trade and the excitement that creates. Arguably this gets some good talent flowing back to the NL which is also good.
  3. igor67
    Gindl's August OPS up to .831. It's fair to say that he hasn't taken a step forward this year, but if you line things up it does look like it the first half was largely driven by a low batting average and the last two months are basically the same old Gindl. Perhaps the biggest difference is that being a year older now he loses a little bit of that projectability for constantly being rather young for his league. I still like him though.
  4. igor67
    I like that OF plan LouisEly. Aoki is still a nice guy, but as the season has worn on he looks more like his initial profile 4th OF type speed OBP type, not enough SLG to make it in the corners. Davis in LF gives you a chance with some more development out of Segura to have a step forward offensively next year, and not a lot of defensive backsliding. Gindl and Schafer battle it out in the spring for the 5th OF and you have a nice option handy for injuries. Morris gets to continue to refine for a year and help decide whether you retain Hart or go young. Doesn't address Gamel however. Maybe a change of scenery trade for some fresh arms for the pen?
  5. igor67
    One could complain, but even for having a very bad year he didn't implode to the point you had to find yet another starter mid-year. That could have caused some issues with having to rush guys up. The minor league arms seem to have done a solid job of developing this year, but Thornburg got a bit wobbly and Peralta had that rough spot if we had been forced to keep running them out at the major league level it could have been a disaster for them. As other have said 2 very respectable and important years, and a bad 3rd was hardly the reason we missed the playoffs.
  6. igor67
    One thing to keep in mind about Range Factor is that it is heavily dependent on pitching staff. The Brewers pitchers have the highest strikeout total which eats into chances in a big way (slightly off topic but the high Ks, middle of the road BBs, and high hit total suggest the staff has some serious bounce back coming next year). MLB.com lists totals so this is much easier than I thought. Brewers rank 25th in total air outs. The high K-rate really cuts into opportunities for Range Factor. The point about defensive aging though is worth remembering. Andruw Jones is a good example his days as an other worldly CFer were done by his late 20's. He was still good, but not lapping the field. He could explode offensively, but I'd say the bulk of the evidence suggests his total value will be pretty similar over the next couple of years. And given the internal depth, Gomez is the kind of player you just go year to year with to maintain the flexibility to swap out for a cheaper option if you want to reallocate resources.
  7. igor67
    I feel compelled to point out that many think these players are leaving money on the table when they sign these type of deals, but the risk here is a two way street. How excited would the Cubs be to have had Geovany Soto due another 30 million in the next couple of years? There are plenty of other examples as well Rocco Baldelli. Our own might Casey would have been a disaster. Prospects are always a nice case in point, look no further than Dylan Covey who under the best circumstances (which are a long shot at this point) might break even with the deal he turned down. Unfortunately Boras corporation can spread the risk of any individual player losing value and continually role the free agent dice. Players operating on his advice however have no such luxury.
  8. igor67
    To add some positivity I liked Heckathorn's night. He hasn't completely dominated out of the pen, but there was a decent amount of talk that he could end up there when drafted. I prefer starting pitchers from high drafts picks, but something sure beats nothing in terms of contributing at the major league level. And after this year one has to feel like there's nothing wrong with having a number of relief prospects with options that you can shuffle around if people start to struggle.
  9. igor67
    I don't know I bet he can get at least a year 10 million dollar deal in the offseason if he looks good in the last month. That's not that far off the qualifying offer.
  10. igor67
    With the one bad start for the entire year on August 3rd, its amazing how similar Burgos year looks like Fiers.
  11. igor67
    I've liked what I saw this weekend of Segura's defense. Any other opinions?
  12. igor67
    It was incredibly painful to watch, but it does make sense. K-rod has not been good, but he hasn't been so bad that it is impossible to imagine him reestablishing a little success and value. Axford meanwhile did have a couple of outings, and is coming back so you do want to keep trying to get him straightened out now
  13. igor67
    Pitchers in general are rather fragile. Sheets was not notably more fragile than other starters. Given that he was the only starter of any value practically for a number of years we noticed every single bump and bruise and it felt worse, but we'd have gone through the same issue with pretty much any starter outside of those rare few who really can go pitch for half a dozen years and 200+ innings consecutively. So while health is a skill relative to other pitchers Sheets was not below average, so there is no reason to try and penalize his excellent performances by adding on a negative that would apply to almost every other starting pitcher.
  14. igor67
    Don't forget the other Fielder, Cecil also made it big at 26.
  15. igor67
    I'm not terribly interested in Farris anymore. He can't really play SS and his offensive game is a little bit of speed and empty batting average. He's worth having around as long as he has options as an extreme injury back-up.
  16. igor67
    I'll grant you the misplaced RFers, but having the relative talent levels of the best player at each position is actually not useful at all. We are comparing Hart to the field of possibilities not an individual player. His relative value at either position is still highly similar. Based on the misplaced RFers I'd say it's a toss-up at this point and really depends on how you rate his defense at each position. If you go by pure eyeball it's probably Hart at first in a slam dunk. The data suggests he isn't that good, certainly better than Fielder, but nothing above average, while he tended to grade out in RF better than arm chair observations would indicate. I'd still lean toward Hart at first partly because I've thought Gamel's athleticism and arm profiled better in RF at this point.
  17. igor67
    The biggest reason not to extend him is that while I think he is rounding into a pretty good starter, he does not look like he is going to become an awesome player (tools not with standing). He has a relatively high risk of becoming a marginal player over night, and has some potential to become an All-star, but is most likely just going to be a guy who is nice to have around. We have a lot of players who could provide similar value in the pipeline, so you would not want to allocate a lot of money to him.
  18. igor67
    Put me in the just over 50% on believer category. The growth trend in the overall stat line has been there over the last three years, performing well enough to get out of the platoon leads me to think most of that growth is real skill growth. Not the second coming or anything, but a nice little player and a serious threat to make everyone of those threads mentioning the Hardy trade go into the Brewerfan hall of shame.
  19. igor67
    Actually the WAR chart I was looking at gave Hart the same WAR rating for both RF and 1st, so they must already calculate the position adjustment as they play. Which leads to the surprising result that this year RFs are out performing 1st basemen. Actually as I recall that isn't that unusual, because as a group the RF tend to be more athletic and will often collectively outperform the plodding sluggers. Presumably due to things like defense, and base running. Which suggests that at best the position switch is somewhat nuetral from a value perspective.
  20. igor67
    Let's really ask a hard one. Is Fiers the Brewers number 1 starter? Gallardo has certainly had moments, but I don't recall him ever putting a streak together were he was as good as Fiers has been.
  21. igor67
    I think everyone appreciates the depth of the reporting. Just as useful is it makes it pretty easy to see why we might value some guys differently. I like tools a lot, but anybody who can hit well enough to look like a starter in AAA (assuming they aren't level repeaters) tends to rate highly in my book because he is useful and frankly the odds of a guy being a league average player when he is doing good things at AAA are higher than your random high upside guy in A ball. Overall the thing that stands out though is that we are back to being able to have interesting discussions about guys in the mid 30's. It wasn't that long ago that those guys weren't wort their signing bonuses in lottery tickets.
  22. igor67
    Khrush Davis does not make outs, he allows outs to exist.
  23. igor67
    Trading him now doesn't exempt us from the installments, you seem to keep thinking that those installments are add ons to his last seasons salary. I don't know how the contract language is worded, but given the vast discount he is playing at this year, and to a lesser extent next year those deferred payments are most likely tied to this year and/or next years salary and were done to fit into the relatively tight budget this year (think K-rod).
  24. igor67
    The problem with the time value of money is that players also have a declining value with time. It would be nice if they just canceled each other out, but they don't. There is also the issue of the time value of executives. How many GMs are still going to be in the job by year 7 of that deal? This sets up a huge real market inefficiency where they have a strong incentive to overpay someone else's budget.
  25. igor67
    Actually Hart ranks 8th among MLB first basemen by WAR right now, while 11th in RF. I'd say his relative value is pretty similar at both positions, though I'd lean towards 1st since observationally he looks like a better defender there.
×
×
  • Create New...