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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    I thought it was about right, Sickels is a tough grader. At best the top 20 prospects in baseball earn A grades. C+ are still guys who can start if everything goes well. He touched on a couple of guys that could appear on the new top 20, but didn't necessarily cover everybody who could rise to replace some of the more disappointing players.
  2. igor67
    The other big thing to consider if one wants to assume a Hart vs. Ramirez is that there are a larger number of internal candidates who could potentially match Hart. Green is really the only 3rd base guy at this point, and while he might give a modest leg up on defense his ceiling looks more like an .800 OPS with .750 being more likely. That's a far cry from Aramis. On the flipside I could see (not that it is the most likely, but it is possible) Davis, Gamel, or Morris out OPSing Hart.
  3. igor67
    About the only thing we are short on is big time right handed hitters. Segura helps, but pretty much all of the best corner IF and OF prospects are lefties. This is far from the end of the world, but when you are trying to find MLB playing time and get the most out of mid range guys being able to platoon productively really helps. There are enough upper level guys that you should easily be able to fill out the roster with minimum salary guys and free up a solid amount of money for pitching. There is an argument for maybe bringing in a veteran for the 25th slot (i.e. the guy who barely plays and only pinch hits every couple of games). Overall though there is a lot of reason to think you can churn the roster pieces around Braun over the next few years and have a lot of fun. To say nothing of what happens if 2/3 of Davis, Morris, and Gamel hit their ceilings. That would be a lot of line-up thunder.
  4. igor67
    A number of mine our Brewerfan related, namely the Prince and Weeks HR in the same game against the Twins 2) Prince's inside the parker at the dome is probably my favorite 3) Eddie Perez's walk-off 3run HR against the Reds
  5. igor67
    That tail end of the contract is the number I have a bigger concern about. Otherwise I'd have made the waiver claim and hoped to snag him at cost ( at which point he is basically a FA signing without losing draft picks). On the trade front I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense, but maybe there is an interesting balance point where the Phillies pay enough salary to make it worth some modest talent. I just don't think that makes that much sense on their end. They definitely trapped themselves in on some big contracts to old players who suddenly got old, but they still have a lot of talent worth the money too.
  6. igor67
    The even run differential, but 8 games under .500 also should be factored in when judging the talent level of the team. Given his history and performance at the time of injury it's pretty easy to picture this years team comfortably out scoring last year's if Gonzalez stays healthy. And that is with a lot more down years than up years from players to point too. I do think there is room for improvement, and just running the same guys out is a mistake, but with that line-up the Brewers could easily have a respectable chance at getting to the playoffs next year without 'gutting the farm' or 'sacrificing the future'. Those aren't mutually exclusive like wisecracking pundits would like you to believe.
  7. igor67
    Team context does matter a lot. Mays is generally the most valuable, but on say the 1992 Brewers you'd probably take Maddux, since we already had Yount. That said the bullpen as a group has blown many leads, so just having Rivera isn't going to turn it around. It would take at least 2 of him if not 3.
  8. igor67
    Gomez may become an acceptable OBP player, but never a good one. He should not be #2. His power speed combo makes a lot more sense at #6 or 7 where he can drive guys in with his moderate power, or get on and steal a base to try and snag a run in front of the pitcher. Similarly despite years of going on about his power, Rickie doesn't hit for enough SLG to be a good fit for #5 or 6. He is however always count working and getting on base, so if you want to get a little more out of his power bat him second after Aoki. Or the simplest way to look at it more ABs for Braun = good plan.
  9. igor67
    Monty I'm pretty sure you are incorrectly including deferred payments/options in that future cost of Ramirez. A chunk of that deferred money we are already on the hook for as result of this year.
  10. igor67
    I'm pretty sure they just need to sign him before the qualifying offer deadline. As long as he will accept it. 13 million might be an over pay, but will there actually be better options to spend money on? If you are industrious you might be able to put together a cheap, but effective pen, and can then spend the 13 million hoping to hit the daily double. The big performance to push the team into contention and the extra draft pick at the end of the rainbow (which given the slotting system and fewer supplemental picks now has relatively more value). The bet could easily not payoff the way you'd hope, but since teams never actually save money to spend in later seasons there is little reason to value frugality for its own sake. See the Rodriguez offer based on everything he had said there was all kinds of reasons to believe he would either get a longer contract elsewhere or flat out decline arby knowing he wouldn't be the closer. I think it was a good decision that had a bad outcome.
  11. igor67
    I was skeptical the Brewers would get the prospects with enough upside to make dealing Greinke worthwhile, but they did. That said the Brewers were pretty much the only team who got a pretty high ceiling prospect and that was for the top starting pitcher at the deadline. Hart has plenty of value, but not nearly the premium. As a result I'm doubtful that the Brewers would find a deal where they got high upside guys in return. Keeping in mind they don't have a lot of prospect holes at this point (trading for relievers as the center piece just doesn't do it for me). Maybe you try something outside the box and target some A ball level guys, but you only have so many slots to handout for development time. It wouldn't necessarily be a failure if they just played out the year in my book. Hart looks like he should hit 30 HRs and SLG .500. He's no Votto, but Prince only has an .878 OPS this year and fewer HRs and doubles than Hart (.838 OPS)! The exact amount of defense adjustment is hard to say precisely, but it definitely closes that gap. Lest you think that is a fluke by Prince he has had 3 other major league seasons with an OPS in the .800's. Short version of the argument Hart is a pretty good bet to give value as good or better than most of our current hitting prospects, and not particularly likely to bring back a lot of really good prospects.
  12. igor67
    There is depth, which could allow us to trade Hart and I'd explore that just to kind of see if it leads anywhere exciting. I'd also want a more sophisticated look at how much glove value Hart is delivering. The long scoops are definitely nice, and there were multiple years where I've thought that was the ideal first basemen because the errors they save might be equal to the runs a guy might save with range instead. However saving other guys wild throws makes it easier to play stronger bats at other positions. Think of how Gamel and Jose Valentin would have been perceived differently with smaller error totals. That said I haven't seen any solid analysis on how well Hart's range is playing at first and that could have a big impact on where he grades out for the future. That said there is not a crunch of guys just yet, you could easily have the big competition and fill out your reserves from the list of corner OF, and have guys like Davis and Morris play a full year in AAA (or maybe one forces his way over Gindl or Schafer). In any event as we saw this year that gives you a lot of protection against guys who underperform for whatever reason and injuries at a whole bunch of positions. You can assess again at midseason, maybe you deal someone else and resign Hart, or maybe you let him finish out the year and play the younger guys. I guess the biggest thing is that it is not a problem that demands an immediate solution, and we are well situated to be patient and act at the best time to the best deal rather than bow to a time table.
  13. igor67
    Sure Sanchez is younger and what not, but the Pirates almost have to pick him up. That's about as easy and cost effective of an upgrade as it gets.
  14. igor67
    I'd say that Morris and Gamel profile quite differently. Gamel has always had moderate HR power, but carried a high average, good BB totals and gap power. Morris has improved the average and BB rate which were his weakness, but it is his HR power that will let him play first. Morris looks a lot more like Hart as a hitter now, while Gamel is more of a John Olerud. On an OPS level I'd rate them about equal right now, but it is getting really hard to have a good estimate of what Gamel will actually do.
  15. igor67
    I'd go with a 7, but that I don't think you can get a complete evaluation until the August deadline. If he isn't able to deal anymore vets getting a better than I expected was possible haul for Greinke merits a solid but not spectacular grade.
  16. igor67
    If the bullpen took a lead to France, who would surrender first?
  17. igor67
    The improvement in his stat line is fairly consistent with a typical player development path. It could be fluky, but his base stealing has been looking better, people have been far more complimentary of watching his play this year. I think there is pretty good reason to look at this as his new talent level. Overall it is a fairly handy amount of talent, but not nearly irreplaceable. I'd still hesitate to call him a regular since his total value is not so far ahead of what other prospects could provide, I think it makes more sense developmentally to minimize the weakness of these mid range players while at the same time giving them enough playing time to show what they can do. If Gomez becomes the guy there are a lot fewer ABs to go around to other OFers. Gomez has always had the HR swing, but with him showing it more consistently he may start to see more walk opportunities, so while that remains a big hole in his game it may yet improve as well.
  18. igor67
    There always seems to be a lag effect on national level publications in spotting turn arounds. Which in some sense is fair because most turnarounds are just hot streaks. Callis' assessments sounds a lot like what many might have said a month ago if we had added those players then. July has been pretty good to the system, but looking across the entire season we have a lot of pitching prospects who have had both ups and downs. Burgos and Fiers are going to be rated lower despite great results all year because of their stuff. With Morris and Kh. Davis a month ago there is nothing that screams rewrite the top 10. I could keep going, but I think the bottom line is that if the guys who have been coming on finish strong in August the farm probably ends up more like the middle of the pack. Similarly if some of the guys getting extended looks now perform (I'm looking at you Rogers) publications are going to start to feel more confident in rating Brewers pitchers higher as prospects.
  19. igor67
    Perhaps more charitably there is at least some symbolic value in turning the page. At least some of the people in the bullpen will pitch at a respectable level in MLB again. This can give you the clear line in the sand to start recounting and evaluating.
  20. igor67
    This is the Zombie idea that just won't die, almost no one thinks this is a remotely good idea. Lucroy kind of reminds me of Russell Martin. Solid catcher who all of a sudden has a great offensive season, then just goes back to being a solid catcher. It is not like we are short on bats, we have plenty of guys who can hit everywhere but SS right now, and with Segura that now seems less of an issue too.
  21. igor67
    With Nelson getting reactivated the turn around from Peralta, Arnett, and Rogers plus the new guys there is a lot to like about the pitching depth. It could end up being a challenge to get them all fair shots as they move up.
  22. igor67
    What about dealing Gomez? He has established some actual value, and we have a multitude of candidates to roughly replace his current value. They have different skill sets, but I'd explore seeing if there is a market for him.
  23. igor67
    I think MNBrew's point is quite fair in general. There are a number of viable strategies where sending Bianchi down makes long term sense. I think most of them involve preserving the most amount of flexibility for deals. It isn't unreasonable to think that another team might need an Izturis back in a trade as roster filler. I don't know that it is particularly likely, but getting Bianchi some ABs for a week or so while things get sorted out isn't the end of the world. That said I'm a bit uneasy that he's going to get a real shot. 12 ABs in a couple of weeks? Braun might be the only guy on the roster who hasn't had an 0-12 streak this season. While one can find positive interpretations of the cautious approach the Brewers have been using with middle of the road prospects, it also sends the contradictory message of hit early and hit often when you do get a shot.
  24. igor67
    'but would have to be blown away' oh that's right up there with a vote of confidence in GM speak.
  25. igor67
    To clarify I don't think that dealing half a dozen players is a complete tear down. I think it is perfectly possible to trade a substantial number of players on the roster, but relatively few of them by the deadline. Two major deals of a position player and Greinke is probably about the most that could happen by the non-waiver deadline. Then you focus on the garage sale of possible spare parts in August and see who can scare up a little bit of value. Maybe in the offseason you swing one other deal for a big name on the roster and you can turn over a lot of the team without burning the whole thing to the ground.
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